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Will Scotland’s Disadvantaged Communities Participate in the Referendum?. John Curtice ScotCen /Strathclyde University. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Ranking of small areas on seven criteria: Employment Income Health Education, Skills, and Training

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will scotland s disadvantaged communities participate in the referendum

Will Scotland’s Disadvantaged Communities Participate in the Referendum?

John Curtice

ScotCen/Strathclyde University

scottish index of multiple deprivation
Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation
  • Ranking of small areas on seven criteria:
  • Employment
  • Income
  • Health
  • Education, Skills, and Training
  • Geographic Access to Services
  • Crime
  • Housing
  • Focusing on those in 20% most deprived areas
questions
Questions
  • Is motivation to vote lower in the most deprived areas?
  • Why is this be the case?
    • Is disinclination to vote an individual or collective outlook?
  • How do the prospects for September compare with behaviour at previous elections?
scottish social attitudes
Scottish Social Attitudes
  • Annual probability sample of 1500 people resident in Scotland interviewed face to face
  • Conducted by ScotCen Social Research since 1999
  • Cousin of British Social Attitudes
  • Aims to (i) facilitate study of public opinion (ii) facilitate development/evaluation of public policy
  • Has regularly tracked participation in elections and orientation towards politics
ascertaining likelihood to vote
Ascertaining Likelihood to Vote

Please think of a scale that runs from 0 to 10, where 0 means very unlikely and 10 means very likely. How likely is it that you will vote in the independence referendum? (Scale presented on a card)

attitudinal differences
Attitudinal Differences

Source: SSA 2013

what does matter
What Does Matter

2011

2014

Interest in Politics

Party ID

Independence Make Difference to Life

Age

Knowledge of Independence

Independence Complicated

Educational Attainment

  • Interest in Politics
  • Age
  • Party ID
  • Educational Attainment
  • Deprivation
conclusion
Conclusion
  • Motivation to vote is lower amongst people living in more deprived areas – and (relatively) referendum not that dissimilar to recent elections
  • People in such areas are less interested in politics and less connected to political parties
  • Albeit as likely as anyone else to think independence could make a difference
  • Once these (individual) attitudinal characteristics are taken into account, ‘community’ makes little difference.