Aquifer Science Application

1. Aquifer Science Application by Pro Se Protestant: David E. Thompson, PhD Professor Emeritus in Mechanical Engineering Professor Emeritus in Computer Science Dean Emeritus in College of Engineering The University of Idaho Moscow, ID 57 Via Entrada Sandia Park, NM 87047 A study in water extraction and its consequences.

2. Background • Education • B.S. Mechanical Engineering, 1963, Lamar University • M.S. Mechanical Engineering, 1964, Louisiana Polytechnic Inst • Ph.D. Mechanical Engineering, 1970, Purdue University • Relevant Professional Experience • 2007-Now Professor & Dean Emeritus, U. Idaho • 1999-06 Dean, College of Engineering, U. Idaho • 1999-07 Professor, Mechanical Engineering, U. Idaho • 1999-07 Professor, Computer Science, U. Idaho • 1993-99 Professor & Chair, Mechanical Engineering, UNM • 1997-99 Jt Appt, Orthopedic Surgery, UNM Sch of Medicine • 1997-99 Research Prof, Neurosurgery, UNM Sch of Medicine

3. Background • Relevant Professional Experience (Continued) • 1983-93 Jt Appt, System Science, Louisiana State University • 1983-83 Acting Chair, Mechanical Engineering, LSU • 1977-93 Joint Appt, Orthopaedic Surgery, LSU • 1969-93 Asst, Assoc, Full Prof, Mechanical Engineering, LSU • 1965-69 Instructor & Grad Fellow, Purdue University • 1964-65 Adjunct Faculty, U. Texas Arlington • 1964-65 Test Engineer, General Dynamics Ft. Worth Div. • Professional Societies • 1997-Now Fellow, ASME • 1997-98 Pres. NM Section, Soc. Adv. Matl & Process Engr • 2007-Now Pres. NM Section, SAMPE

4. Background • Honors and Awards • 2007 Prof & Dean Emeritus, College of Engineering, U. Idaho • 2007 Hall of Distinction, 59th Member, College of Engr, LSU • 2004 Outstanding Svc Awd, ISPE & Engineering Deans Council • 1997 Fellow, Amer Society of Mechanical Engineering • 1991 Distinguished Service Award, State of Louisiana • 1988 Research of Internatl Import, only awds in SIGGRAPH history • 1973 Tau Beta Pi, National Honorary Engineering Society, Louisiana Alpha Chapter, Louisiana State University, 1973 • Publications • 130 archival journal publications, invited papers, book chapters, conference papers, reports, other scholarly works.

5. Expertise My expertise may be generally categorized in the following basic areas • Thermal Sciences, including Fluid Mechanics • Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Nonlinear Systems • Text: Design Analysis: Mathematical Modeling of Nonlinear Systems, Cambridge Press, 1999. • Instrumentation and Analysis • Administration All of the red-highlighted areas are of importance to this Hearing, and I ask that I be qualified as an Expert in these fields.

6. Assumptions In this talk, it is my understanding that it is appropriate to present material based on: • My initial report • Surrebuttal issues and responses to surrebuttal that need to be responded to • New material uncovered in direct and cross-examinations These will be addressed in the following sections.

7. Land Subsidence • Land Subsidence occurs when large amounts of groundwater have been excessively withdrawn from an aquifer, altering water-bearing soils and allowing them to compress in-elastically. • Over time, as more water is removed from the area, the ground drops and creates a cone or region of soil depression. • Once the water has been removed from the sediment, it cannot be replaced. Subsidence is an irreversible process. Well Subsidence Natural Ground Level Water-Bearing Soils If over-pumped and if recharge inadequate, soils may collapse and ground will settle, losing water-bearing property irreversibly.

8. History of Land Subsidence • One of the oldest reports of subsidence is also a mystery story about a city known as Ubar. • Ancient rumors tell of a long lost city of 8 towers that was a major way-point on the frankincense trade route from the Arabian Sea across the desert to Petra, Jerusalem, and Alexandria. • The ancient fables said that the city was swallowed up by the sands in one night because of its immorality and sinfulness. • Does legend match reality in some manner?

9. History of Land Subsidence • In 1993, NASA satellite imagery found the city, and archeological studies began1. • In 4,500BC, Ubar was on a surface spring, but by 500BC, the water levels had dropped 30 ft. • After 4,000 years, the city was over an immense cavern that was shaped by continuous water withdrawal exceeding natural replenishment. • In one cataclysmic event, a large part of the city fell into the hole and the city was abandoned and lost to the desert sands. 1. Clapp, Nicholas: The Road to Ubar, Houghton-Mifflin, Boston/NY, 1998.

10. History of Land Subsidence Moral: Taking large quantities of water from an over-subscribed resource, however slowly, never ends well. Ubar (2000) Note:An archeological depiction.

11. Effects of Land Subsidence • Land subsidence can lead to many problems. • These include changes in elevation and drainage; damage to structures such as piping, roads, railroads; structural damage to homes and buildings; and damage to existing wells. • “IMPAIRMENT” is appropriate here.

12. Where Does Land Subsidence Occur? Land subsidence occurs in all 48 contiguous states. Shown are known subsidence sites. Land Subsidence in the United States, USGS Fact Sheet-165-00, December 2000.

13. Where Does Land Subsidence Occur? • Land subsidence occurs in plains areas, in large and small aquifer systems, high & low altitudes, and in wet or dry climates. • Basins (like the Sandia Park basin) between mountains also can subside due to the weight of accumulated sediments underlain by an aquifer system1. 1. http://science.jrank.org/pages/6563/Subsidence-Geologic-subsidence.html

14. History of Land Subsidence If we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it. Ubar (2000)

15. Land Subsidence Conditions The most common causes of Land Subsidence relevant to the East Mountain area are: Rapid, or prolonged, depression of groundwater level caused by extracting large quantities of water from water-bearing soils. Less rigid soil types are not able to withstand increased compressive stresses as water is removed. Sub-surface cavities (as found frequently in the East Mountains and even in the San Pedro Creek area1). Q: Can subsidence occur in the East Mountains? A: Yes. Q: Is water the only concern to residents of this area? A: No Aquifer Sciences has proposed extracting large quantities (1 Million gallons/day) of water from the Sandia Basin. They are obligated to prove “No Harm” and no impairment. 1. Verbal history from David Massey, Sandia Well Service.

16. Land Subsidence Modeling • One has to ask if there are tools to model and project subsidence, and if these tools are readily available. • The Model assembled by AS and adopted by the WRD uses a numerical analysis engine named MODFLOW1. It is a hydrogeology program used by groundwater modelers and used here by AS & WRD. • A companion program called SUB using the MODFLOW computing engine uses the same basic data structure and model domain to compute subsidence. • The SUBS package is free and readily available and is known to both AS and the the OSE. • Available free from the USGS at the URL: • http://water.usgs.gov/nrp/gwsoftware/modflow.html

17. Land Subsidence Model • The cover of the package documentation for SUB is shown here for reference. • This document states that “when water is depleted from a region, this allows the soils to either elastically or in-elastically compress because of the weight of the overburden.” • But, inelastic deformation is permanent. One cannot “reinflate” compressed soil. • The stakes are high – water bearing soils are lost forever.

18. Land Subsidence Conclusion • I raised this issue initially. • The rebuttal from AS: “This is not an issue.” • My Surrebuttal: “Prove it!” • Mr. Hearing Examiner: The burden of proof is on AS, and they have done nothing substantive, even though the SUB program is free, readily available, and part of the MODFLOW suite. Not one calculation has been done.

19. MODFLOW and It’s Partner Programs The Model assembled by AS and adopted by the WRD uses an analysis engine named MODFLOW1. It is a hydrogeology program used by many groundwater modelers. The basic process of using MODFLOW (and SUB) is as follows: Data Files: geometry, preliminary properties, well locations, depths, well test results, chemistry, etc. CALIBRATION: Minimizes errors based on static tests, then dynamic tests ANALYSIS: Computes future as a result of new pumping, including water runoff, aquifer depletion, impact at various well locations, etc. “Optimized” Properties • Available free from the USGS at the URL: • http://water.usgs.gov/nrp/gwsoftware/modflow.html

20. Fluid Mechanics & Geometry Whether any flow is internal or external, laminar or turbulent, open or porous media, compressible or incompressible, or … whatever, the geometry defining the flow field is critical. Well Geometry (Conceptual Model) Note:Artistic rendition, not a real flow field.

21. The Geology is Critical All agree that the underlying geometry is critical to the development of the model. The proposed geology as seen in cross-section A-A’ is shown below (AS Fig.2-4 from AS Exhibit 12-b): Chinle San Andres - Glorietta Yeso Abo Madera Sandia Granite This is a very complex geometry, but the data supporting this specific geological interpretation by AS is thin.

22. The Geology is Critical Notice, for example, that flow in the Abo Formation is convoluted, and restricted at shear dislocations such as just South (left) of Wheatfield Deep-Well (see red arrow/ellipse below). We know the surface geology We know the vertical geology In only two places in 3-space The paucity of real geological data allows an almost infinite set of “interpretations”.

23. The Geology is Critical We shall now focus our attention on a small region of the geological interpretation presented by Christopher Wolf (see red box below). This includes the Wheatfield well and known surface features. This is a very complex geometry, but the data supporting what AS has presented is not substantial.

24. The Geology is Critical • The yellow box encloses the majority of the region where the geology is not known, and where no hard data exists. • The geologic structures shown are, in fact, an interpretation, not a known reality. • What if this assumed interpretation were different? Would it affect the flow model? (Yes!)

25. The Geology is Critical • Here the shear region is modified to more closely follow the surface. • The change minimizes the displacements of the Sandia/Cibola granite layers, while retaining the depths of the subsurface layers. • You can instantly notice the decrease in flow resistance in the region around the shear displacement (red ellipse).

26. The Geology is Critical • Second, I have modified the shear on the middle system containing the Wheatfield well, using the same constraints as before. • I have also retained the exact location/depth of the well. • Again, there is a decrease in flow resistance.

27. The Geology is Critical • Finally, I modified the shear on the right system, using the same constraints as before. • It is Interesting that almost all of the layers are now better aligned, offering a far greater flow path through the aquifer. • Note that there is a decrease in flow resistance in all the formations at this point.

28. The Geology is Critical • The AS Model is not, and cannot be unique, as it is not based on hard data. • There is no comprehensive geological data survey throughout the Model Domain. • Small alterations such as depicted here yield very different flow results. • And new flow parameters and predictions of well changes!

29. The Geology is Critical • Let me reiterate - the AS Model is not, and cannot be unique, as it is not based on hard data but on assumptions of the underlying geology. • The beautiful 3D figures of the hydrogeology presented by AS are cartoons and may totally miss the true character of the subsurface geology. • This can only be rectified by a comprehensive geological survey (test wells, acoustic imaging) throughout the Model Domain. • Small alterations in the geological model such as depicted here will yield very different results, and this calls into question the entire conclusions of the AS model.

30. The Geology is Critical • Paul Davis has created an alternate view of the geology that is, in my view, more valid than that of AS/WRD. • There are other reasons to be suspect of the AS Model. • Until more is known, the AS Model is just guesswork.

31. Math Modeling Every Math Model Has A Purpose Example 1. Model of my graduate class in math modeling. • Limited data for the model (sound familiar). • Limited time (10 minutes) and resources to build the model. • Results: • Student modeled the financial basis of the course based on sum of tuition paid, instructor pay, electricity costs, janitorial services, etc. • Another modeled the amount of information flow during the semester as a function of attendance, time in class, homework time. • Another modeled the efficiencies of various instructional methods. • Another modeled the class as a geometry, using the sq.ft. of class space, number of chairs, size of blackboard, etc. • Another modeled the class based on knowledge transfer efficiency, the total knowledge gained by the student divided by the sum of the instructor’s knowledge and the knowledge in the textbook. • Etc.

32. Math Modeling Every Math Model Has A Purpose Example 2. Water Rights Division adopted the AS Model. • The analysis program is MODFLOW, so what did they get besides a data resource? (geological assumptions, boundaries, rainfall, runoff, process, … and perhaps more ). • Frequently, a modeler doesn’t appreciate the consequences of their modeling decisions and the result is (to them) a cloaked purpose. Many modelers may not even be aware of their model’s purpose. Why are the models of the protestant experts so different from those of AS? Different purposes? • What is the purpose of the AS model, and can or should it be the same as the WRD’s purpose? Meeting together over an extended period of time, my concern is that AS and WRD now have adopted a shared purpose that prejudices outcomes.

33. Math Modeling Concerns: • Paul Davis has cited many instances of how the underlying Purpose of the AS model has steered the selection of boundaries, flow limitations, parameter values, and even injecting weird geological faults when no evidence supports them. • I was expecting the WRD to be “above it all” and to serve as a non-interested party. • But the WRD has met exclusively with AS and has adopted the AS Model: Lock, Stock, and Purpose. • In meetings between AS and WRD, surely personal bonds were made. In breaks during the Hearings, these two entities have cliqued together. • If you examine the record, you will see that in almost every instance of an Objection, their legal teams operated as if one.

34. Math Modeling Concerns: • Paul Davis has cited many instances of how the underlying Purpose of the AS model has steered the selection of boundaries, flow limitations, parameter values, and even injecting weird geological faults when no evidence supports them. • I was expecting the WRD to be “above it all” and to serve as a non-interested party. • But the WRD has met exclusively with AS and has adopted the AS Model: Lock, Stock, and Purpose. • In meetings between AS and WRD, surely personal bonds were made. In breaks during the Hearings, these two entities have cliqued together. • If you examine the record, you will see that in almost every instance of an Objection, their legal teams operated as if one.

35. Math Modeling Nonlinear Model Behavior The models and analysis of groundwater flow are nonlinear and multi-dimensional. Nonlinear systems can have weird characteristics1: • They can introduce totally new, unrelated frequency elements. • Infinitely small changes in initial conditions can result in very different results. • They can become chaotic in nature. • This is undoutedly true if the driving functions (rainfall, winds, temperatures) are chaotic in nature. Radius of Convergence Design Analysis: Mathematical Modeling of Nonlinear Systems, D.E. Thompson, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1999.

36. Math Modeling Model Precision, Accuracy The current AS/WRD Models suffer from a basic and fundamental mathematical problem: their parameter values are effectively estimates, and are only given to 1 digit of resolution. From a high school mathematics perspective, ANY calculation that proceeds using 1 digit parameter values is therefore limited to 1 digit of resolution. So, in determining well level changes in feet, for example, a result might be 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 20, 30, 40, …. Etc. This renders most of the Applicant’s results to be essentially useless.

37. Math Modeling Sandia Basin Water Usage • One can estimate the growth of new domestic water wells using OSE records. • AS Model assumes NO new domestic water wells over 40-year model period. • Essentially assumes ALL new real estate sales for region will be made by AS. • AS ignores almost 1500 new domestic wells (conservative linear projection shown in red). • AS ignores an estimated new 371 acre-feet of consumption that will occur whether they exist or not. • The AS Model is seriously flawed by this seemingly innocuous assumption.

38. Math Modeling Chaotic Model Behavior A lot can be learned from the literature. Especially about the variability of our climate1. The New Mexico record for the past 2,000 years is well documented by the tree record. Chaotic Behavior 1. Drought: A Paleo Perspective, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program, C. Woodhouse et.al. 2003, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/drght_home.htmlç

39. Math Modeling Chaotic Model Behavior The climate data for 1700-2000 is interesting because of it’s temporal proximity and it’s characteristic features: • Sharp chaotic nature, with rise and fall transients having a generally short period. • Also observe the larger and longer secondary frequency transients lasting 60 years or longer. • Finally, note the constant climate AS Model representation in blue.

40. Math Modeling Chaotic Model Behavior Even linear or well-behaved systems driven by a chaotic function are chaotic. It is not possible to predict the behavior of such systems. Especially noteworthy is the fact that the AS Model treats the climate (precipitation) as a constant over the 40-year period of the study. From the previous slide, is this likely? Climate (Chaotic) Chaotic Behavior Groundwater Model Unfortunately, it’s not just the climate that is in question in this model.

41. Math Modeling Chaotic Model Behavior Below is shown a groundwater flow model driven by a chaotic climate system, resulting in widely divergent solutions for individual well levels. This is classical chaotic system behavior, and the truth is … one cannot predict the future of such systems. Uncertain Geology Poor Precision 1, 1.2, 1.2476,?? Climate (Chaotic) Groundwater Model Results Improper Parameter Values Growth in Number of Domestic Wells

42. Math Modeling Caveat One of the lessons I taught my graduate students was: • One may have omitted a really important element from the model, but the “calibration process” may artificially compensate and adjust variable values to allow for the appearance of a decent fit to the data. • This is especially true in a large, complex system. • One could also create a large multi-variable high-order polynomial and get a perfect fit to every data point, but is this a realistic and valid model that would allow one to predict future events with? (No) Just because a model fits calibration data, this does NOT validate the model or infer it can predict future events.

43. Summary & Conclusion • It has been shown that the mathematical model is flawed: • Geology and properties improperly defined • Boundaries improperly defined • Population growth improperly ignored • Chaotic nature of precipitation not included • Large errors in the recharge model • The Purpose of the AS model was to minimize the impact of the withdrawal of water for this application • The question of subsidence has not been answered. • The lessons of Ubar have not been heeded: • Taking large quantities of water from an over-subscribed resource never ends well. • Without water, a desert community is doomed. • If we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it. • It is recommended that the Application be Denied.