The Road to Sustainable Development Shunned P.G. Jennings MARJEN Consulting Group (D)Evolution of the Livestock Industry in Jamaica Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica, May 30, 2013
Main Premises • At more than 40% of the value of domestic food production, Livestock Development remains a significant component of Jamaica’s agricultural economy; • Actualization of the potential contribution of the sector to national development has been severely abridged by enigmatic public policy choices characterized largely by state withdrawal since 1992; • The alternative path of state activism chosen contemporaneously by the Dom. Rep. and the contrasting results, suggest the need for a revamping of domestic policy to maximally exploit available animal genetic, land and knowledge resources. • Untapped domestic capital resources are available.
Profile of Jamaican Agriculture • Land Allocated - 325,810ha* • Active Farmland - 202,727 • Crops - 154,524 • Pasture - 48,203 • Export Crops - 148,554 • Domestic Food Crops - 86,402 • No. Farms - 228,683 Source: STATIN,Census of Agriculture 2007: Preliminary Rep
Table 2. Volume and Value of Pimary Food Production in Jamaica - 2012
Fig. 2. Levels of Self-Sufficiency: 2011 vs. 1992 Courtesy of Dr. Tanika O’Connor-Dennie
Table 6. Livestock: Indicative Self Sufficiency Rates – 2011 vs. 1992
Impact of Public Policy on Differential Performance of Cattle and Poultry Sectors • Poultry Sector: accounted for 79% Producer Support Equivalents (implicit subsidies)to domestic agriculture 2006-2010 (IDB/FAO, 2011). • Average PSE (poultry sector) – J$14.1 billion p.a. – represents effectively transfers from consumer to producer through 270% tariff on imports. • Equivalent to 34% of farm gate value of total domestic production of livestock. • Beef: Duty waivers on beef imports (Feb – March 2011) – J$712 million or 60% of total agricultural waivers for calendar 2011 (Jennings et al 2013). • Dairy: A waiver of duty on imported SMP for direct consumption has remained in effect since 1991. Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica
Table 7. Comparative Impact of Tariff Regime Change: Ja. vs. B’dos Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica
Table 8. What if ? - Implied Domestic Livestock Production in 2012 at 1992 Self Sufficiency Rates
Table 9. Indicative Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products - 2011
Table 10. Demographic Changes in the Livestock Industry – 1990 vs. 2012
Table 11. Quantifiable Socio-Economic Impact of Attrition in Cattle Sector
Table 12. Resource Requirements for Foregone Domestic Production
Fig. 3. The Imperative of Increased Domestic Food Production - Producer Price Indices – USA 1999-2009Source: FAOSTAT
Table 13. Technical Feasibility of Accelerated Milk and Beef Production Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica
Table 14. Comparison of Projected 2020 Yields vs. Self-Sufficiency Targets Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica
Table 17. Economic Contribution of the Agri-Food Sectors – Selected Countries
Table 18. Contribution of Beef and Dairy Sectors to Primary Agric GDP – 20071.
Contribution of Beef and Dairy Sectors to Primary Agric GDP – 20071. …contd. • Divergence between developed and developing countries in contribution of cattle sector to Agric GDP provides a clear ‘index of development’. • For the developed (4) = 57.3% • For the developing (4) = 22.4% • The correlation is by no means spurious as beef and milk consumption are indexed to increasing affluence.
‘Going for Growth’ – Recommended Policy Approaches (From: Jennings et al, 2013) Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica
References Arias Segura, J. 2010. The Contribution of Agriculture to Sustainable Development in Jamaica. IICA Azevedo, P.F., Chaddad, F.R. and Farina, E. 2004. The Food Industry in Brazil and the United States: The Effects of the FTAA on Trade and Investment. IADB, INTAL-ITD (Pub.) Duffus, B.G. and Jennings, P.G. 2005. The Current State of the Jamaican Cattle Sector. Available at www.jlaltd.com Holness, J.A. 2013. Challenges Facing The Dairy Sector and Jamaica’s Efforts to Overcome Them. FAO/CARDI Workshop/Seminar for CARICOM’s Regional Chief Livestock Officers, Kingston, Jamaica, 8-10 April, 2013 IDB/FAO, 2011. JAMAICA: Agricultural Sector Support Analysis. Synthesis. Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica
References…contd Jamaica Dairy Development Board 2009. Medium Term Policy Framework for the Cattle Sector. Available at www.jddb.gov.jm Jennings, P.G. 2010. Report on Visit to the Dominican Republic, July 10-17, 2010. Available at www.jddb.gov.jm Jennings, P.G., Stair, M.A. and Lindsay, J.I. 2013 Going for Growth: A Policy Perspective on Positioning Domestic Agriculture as a Key Driver of Economic Growth in Jamaica. Unpublished policy proposal. Logan, R.S. 2004. Quantification of the Depletion of Small Farmers’ Cattle Inventory Asset Due To the Decline in the Cattle Industry in North-East Jamaica. MSc. Thesis, UWI, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago. Lucas, C. 2013.Status of the Livestock Industry in Barbados, FAO/CARDI Regional Livestock Workshop/Seminar, Kgn., Ja. 09-04-13 Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica
References…contd. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, New Zealand 2003. Contribution of the Land-Based Primary Industries to New Zealand’s Economic Growth. www. O’Connor-Dennie, T. 2013 Animal Genetic Resources Management: Opportunities for the Caribbean. FAO/CARDI Workshop/Seminar for CARICOM’s Regional Chief Livestock Officers, Kingston, Jamaica, 8-10 April, 2013 Thomas, G. & M. Hunte 2005. Barbados: Country Report on the State of Animal Genetic Resources , MARD Trevor Hamilton and Associates 2012. Jamaican Pig Population Census. JSIF/MAF Presentation to Natural History Society of Jamaica
Postscript I shall be telling this with a sighSomewhere ages and ages hence:Two roads diverged in a wood, and I,I took the one less traveled by,And that has made all the difference. Source: Robert Frost, 1915 , “The Road Not Taken”