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Agenda Item 4.1. International Trade by Commodity Statistics (ITCS) database: Allocating data from HS 6 digits to HS 2 digits WPTGS, 16-18 November 2009. Blandine Serve, Eric Gonnard ( OECD Statistics Directorate) Colin Webb ( OECD Science, Technology and Industry Directorate).

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Agenda Item 4.1

International Trade by Commodity Statistics (ITCS) database:Allocating data from HS 6 digits to HS 2 digitsWPTGS, 16-18 November 2009

Blandine Serve, Eric Gonnard (OECD Statistics Directorate)

Colin Webb (OECD Science, Technology and Industry Directorate)

STD/SES/TAGS; 2nd WPTGS Meeting 16.-18.11.2009, Paris

objectives
Objectives:
  • Report about break in series occurring in OECD (ITCS) and UNSD (COMTRADE) annual trade databases
  • Explain the causes, the conversion procedures and conversion table
  • Propose solutions to improve the quality of long time series in HS
outline
Outline:
  • OECD/UN joint database, overview
  • Non conversion of Memorandum Items (MI)
  • Break in long time series
  • Over use of 999999 codes
  • Solution to improve the quality of the database
  • Conclusion
slide4
1. OECD/UN joint database
  • Cascade of classifications: data received in latest HS classification and converted into historical series at 6-digits
  • Aggregation from 6-digits to 2-digits, with a special case, the Memorandum Items
2 memorandum items
2. Memorandum Items
  • Definition of MI: special codes to process as accurately as possible special transactions (confidential items and Eurostat specific codes)
  • Member countries submit MI following their own methodology
  • MI are harmonised in the OECD/UNSD trade database :
    • In the reported classification (e.g. in HS 2007), MI are allocated to the specific chapter where they are belonging to
    • In the older classifications, MI are not converted, but generated to the chapter 99 (999999 codes)
3 break in hs long time series
3. Break in HS long time series
  • Consequence of the non conversion of MI, an illustration

Graph: United Kingdom – Exports of chapter 88 “Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof”

Note: « 88CF00 » stands for the confidential code contained in chapter 88

3 from a user point of view
3. From a user point of view
  • In practice, when downloading trade data, users get different values

Chapter 88 exports to the World of the UK tree for the year 2007

Querying HS 2007 dataset

Querying HS 2002 dataset

4 inflation of 999999
4. Inflation of 999999
  • Increase of the chapter 99 in HS 2002 vs HS 2007 for 2007 exports:
    • 27% for OECD total
    • 94% U.K.
    • 56% Italy
    • 18% Germany
  • Loss of accuracy and information
5 solution conversion of mi 1 3
5. Solution: conversion of MI (1/3)
  • In HS: convert MI into specific chapters in older classifications rather than generating 999999 codes
    • One-to-one conversion:

Example: ‘ 01CF00‘ from HS 2007 can be converted to ‘01CF00’ in HS 2002, since every 6-digits codes in Chapter 01 from HS 2007 go to (and only to) Chapter 01 in HS 2002

    • Intercrossing issues for one-to-many conversion

Example:

5 solution conversion of mi 2 3
5. Solution: conversion of MI (2/3)
  • Number of HS 2007 chapters concerned by intercrossing issues :
    • 2 when converting into HS 2002
    • 3 when converting into HS 1996
    • 5 when converting into HS 1988
  • For those cases:
5 solution conversion of mi 3 3
5. Solution: conversion of MI (3/3)
  • Complementary method, when information is available:

1) Convert 6-digits codes and totals on 2-digits

2) Compute by chapter, the Confidential codes as being:

(2-digits total) – Σ(6-digits)

  • Conversion into SITC:
    • No breaks in series
    • No easy chapter-section correspondance
6 conclusion
6. Conclusion
  • Conversion of the Memorandum Items for HS classifications
    • one-to-one for 2-digits
    • one-to-many: ‘ HSCFH3’ new codes
    • (2-digits total) – Σ(6-digits) into confidential items
  • Non conversion into SITC
  • Conversion of ICT goods
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