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Suburban Demographic Change and Perception Lag

This article explores the changes in demographics, socioeconomics, and housing stock in suburban areas, particularly in the United States. It examines the phenomenon of suburban decline, poverty, racial, ethnic, and nativist change, as well as suburban policy. The article also highlights the perception lag in understanding and acknowledging these changes.

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Suburban Demographic Change and Perception Lag

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  1. kanacker@gmu.edu

  2. Context: Suburbs • “Over the past several decades some suburban picture windows in the United States have developed cracks […]. Many suburbs are no longer places with high proportions of homeowning non-Hispanic Whites and native borns with relatively high household incomes, high levels of education, and without any problems […]. Indeed, some suburbs have never had these characteristics […]. Interestingly perception has been lagging behind […]” (Anacker, 2015, 1).

  3. Context: Suburbs (cont’d) • changes in demographics, socioeconomics, and housing stock; focus: U.S. suburban decline and poverty

  4. Context: Suburbs (cont’d) • changes in demographics, socioeconomics, and housing stock; focus: U.S. suburban diversity

  5. Context: Suburbs (cont’d) • changes in demographics, socioeconomics, and housing stock; focus: suburbs in the international context

  6. Five Key Themes • Suburban poverty; • Racial, ethnic, and nativist change; • Suburban Decline – or not? • Suburban foreclosures; • Suburban policy.

  7. Table of Contents • Introduction (Katrin B. Anacker) • Section I: Suburban Poverty • The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in America: Metropolitan Trends in the 2000s (Elizabeth Kneebone and Carey Anne Nadeau) • Debunking the “Cookie-Cutter” Myth for Suburban Places and Suburban Poverty: Analyzing their Variety and Recent Trends (Karen Beck Pooley)

  8. Table of Contents (cont’d) • Section II: Racial, Ethnic, and Nativist Change • The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) • Local Immigration Legislation in Two Suburbs: An Examination of Immigration Policies in Farmers Branch, Texas, and Carpentersville, Illinois (Bernadette Hanlon and Thomas J. Vicino) • Section III: Suburban Decline – or Not? • Beyond Sprawl: Social Sustainability and Reinvestment in the Baltimore Suburbs (Bernadette Hanlon) • Metropolitan Growth Patterns and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan)

  9. Table of Contents (cont’d) • Section IV: Suburban Foreclosures • Responses to Foreclosure and Abandonment in Cleveland’s Inner Suburbs: Three Case Studies (W. Dennis Keating) • Punctuated Equilibrium: Community Responses to Neoliberalism in Three Suburban Communities in Baltimore County, Maryland (Gregory Smithsimon) • Section V: Suburban Policy • Revitalizing Distressed Older Suburbs: Case Studies in Alabama, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (Kathryn W. Hexter, Edward W. (Ned) Hill, Benjamin Y. Clark, Brian A. Mikelbank and Charles Post) • The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin J. Roth and Scott W. Allard)

  10. Section I: Suburban Poverty

  11. The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in America: Metropolitan Trends in the 2000s (Elizabeth Kneebone and Carey Anne Nadeau) • Findings: • The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in the United States; • Regional Impacts; • City and Suburban Trends; • Demographic Shifts;

  12. The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in America: Metropolitan Trends in the 2000s (Elizabeth Kneebone and Carey Anne Nadeau) (cont’d) Table 2.5: Change in Extreme-Poverty Neighborhoods in Cities and Suburbs, 100 Metro Areas, 1990 to 2005-09: Suburbs

  13. The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in America: MetropolitanTrends in the 2000s (Elizabeth Kneebone and Carey Anne Nadeau) (cont’d) Table 2.6: Change in Extreme-Poverty Neighborhoods by Suburban Type, 2000 to 2005-2009

  14. Section II: Racial, Ethnic, and Nativist Change

  15. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) • goal: comparing the Washington Metropolitan Area to the Traditional [suburban] Model (Hanlon et al., 2006); • Black/African American population; • Latino population; • Non-Hispanic White population; • Young workers.

  16. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) Figure 4.3: Census Tracts with Proportion Black/African American Population Greater Than One Positive Standard Deviation from Mean, Washington DC Metropolitan Area, 2010

  17. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) Figure 4.4:Census Tracts with Proportion Black/African American Population Greater Than Two Positive Standard Deviations from Mean, Washington DC Metropolitan Area, 2010

  18. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) Figure 4.7: Census Tracts with Latino Proportion of the Population Greater Than One Positive Standard Deviation, Washington, DC Metropolitan Area, 2010

  19. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) Figure 4.8: Census Tracts with Latino Proportion of the Population Greater Than Two Positive Standard Deviations, Washington DC Metropolitan Area, 2010

  20. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) • Washington MSA departs from Traditional Model (Hanlon et al. (2006); • clusters of Black/African Americans are more likely to be located in suburban locates than inside city limits (86.81% located in Prince George’s County); • clusters of Latinos are located in the inner suburbs; • non-Hispanic White share of population in many DC tracts grew very rapidly 2000 – 2010; • young workers cluster in DC and in inner/first suburbs (Arlington, VA; Alexandria, VA)

  21. Section III: Suburban Decline – or Not?

  22. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) • examine patterns of inner-ring suburban change for the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, focusing on metropolitan growth patterns and urban containment policies; Figure 7.1: Transformation of the Metropolitan Spatial Structure and Inner-Ring Suburbs

  23. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Figure 7.2: Metropolitan Growth Patterns and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline

  24. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Figure 7.3: Trends of Relative Per Capita Income (PCI) for the 100 Largest CBSAs by Subarea (1970 – 2007)

  25. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Figure 7.4: Trends in the Poverty Rate for the 100 Largest CSBAs by Subarea (1970 – 2007)

  26. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Figure 7.6: Ratio of the College-Educated Population to the Average for the 100 Largest CBSAs by Subarea (1970 – 2007)

  27. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) • hypothesis: urban containment policy or the level of urban sprawl plays a role in the decline of inner-ring suburban communities; • 34 metropolitan areas with urban containment policies • 66 metropolitan areas non-urban containment policies • sprawl index: 0 (lowest sprawl) to 100 (highest sprawl)

  28. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Table 7.7: Sprawl Index Trends by Containment Type for the 100 Largest CBSAs (1970 – 2007), abbreviated by editor for presentation (0 = lowest sprawl)

  29. Section V: Suburban Policy

  30. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) • Three research questions: • What is the demand for social services in the suburbs, and how is it changing? • What challenges do service providers encounter to operating programs in the suburbs? • How do nonprofits respond to these challenges? • Three case studies: • Chicago; • Los Angeles; • Washington, DC.

  31. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) (cont’d) Tables 11.7, 11.8: Poverty Rates, 2000-2005-09, Los Angeles and Chicago MSA

  32. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) (cont’d) Table 11.9: Poverty Rates, 2000-2005-09, Washington, DC MSA

  33. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) (cont’d) • Changes, Demands, and Challenges for Social Service Providers • Increased and Shifting Demand; • Immigrant Communities; • The Search for Affordable Office Space; • Funding

  34. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) (cont’d) Table 11.11: Type of Coping Strategy Being Considered for Coming Year

  35. www.ashgate.com50BMK14N (order code) kanacker@gmu.edu

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