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Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …

The COSMO General Meeting held on September 18, 2008, in Cracow highlighted the impressive advancements in operational NWP models, noting improved forecast quality and user expectations. Despite progress, untapped synergies in communication and collaboration were identified. The Science Plan outlines challenges and proposes priority projects to enhance model resolution and data assimilation over the next decade. Discussions focused on integrating new environmental modeling techniques, ensuring effective verification systems, and fostering community support for ongoing improvements and initiatives in COSMO.

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Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …

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  1. Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow

  2. COSMO is Cool! • Impressive amount of work is being done! • Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!

  3. Relative value – Alert level „yellow“ (03h, 06h and 12h accumulations, cut-off +03h) + useful - useless insensitive … sensitive … … against false alarms

  4. COSMO is Cool! • Impressive amount of work is being done! • Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)! • However: Potential synergies (communication, coordination, cooperation) are maybe not fully exploited.  Can we make COSMO even cooler?

  5. Science Plan: Aim • “… summarising the current challenges, • speculating on future directions in an educated manner • offering concrete proposals ( Priority Projects) how to meet these given the limited resources.” Timeframe: expected developments in the next 5 yrs with an outlook out to 10 yrs ahead.

  6. Science Plan: Long-term strategy (~2015) • Stay at the high end of operational NWP model resolution: • very high resolution (1 km) • short to very-short time-scale • deterministic as well as probabilistic (coarser?) • New: environment modelling • Also: climate modelling

  7. Science Plan:Implications (I) • Assimilation: • appropriate scheme for highly non-linear convective-scale processes • ensemble assimilation system • Dynamics and numerics: • steep slopes • closer coupling between the dynamical core an the parameterisations • Physics • basic assumptions / approximations still valid? • unified schemes (e.g., turbulence / shallow convection) • 3D schemes?

  8. Science Plan:Implications (II) • Ensembles: • appropriate perturbations for ICs, BCs, and representation of model errors • predictability • Interpretation and Applications • interpretation • Verification • appropriate verification scores, deterministic as well as probabilistic

  9. Priority Projects (PPs) • CDC: Conservative dynamical core • COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions • CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble • KENDA: Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation • Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land • UTCS: Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme • VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey

  10. PP CDC: Conservative dynamical core • conservation! • finite volumes, which may also prove to be beneficial for steep slopes

  11. PP Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land • Extend 1D-Var efforts (cloud-free, over the sea) to cloudy areas and land points • Should help to improve the humidity initial conditions.

  12. PP VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey • Extension of VERSUS • Implementation and use in all COSMO member states

  13. PP CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble • Merge COSMO-LEPS and COSMO-SREPS to obtain an ensemble system for days 2-5. • Boundary conditions for COSMO-DE-EPS

  14. PP COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions • Merge all (well advanced) activities related to the lower boundary condition and consolidate these developments • external parameters • TERRA (coupled, stand-alone, SCM) • snow • urban module • mosaic/tile

  15. Priority Tasks (PTs) • PP SPRT (“Support Activities”) has been transformed into PT “Support Activities” • Consolidation of cumulus parameterisation scheme(s); coordination of efforts within WG 3 as well as task (v) of PP UTCS • Consolidation of post-processing routines • Assessment of humidity bias

  16. Planning and reporting cycle • planning (PPs, PTs): • driven by Science Plan • responsibility: SMC (WG coordinators & PP leaders) • initiation: a month ahead of the COSMO User Seminar • continuously: work packages (WPs) within the WGs • reporting (PPs, PTs, WPs): • 4 times per year (main (scientific) reporting at General Meeting and User Seminar, intermediate reporting by end of Nov & May)

  17. Communication:COSMO User Seminar • early March (e.g., 9-11.3.2009), in Langen (Germany) • ideal opportunity for workshops for PPs (and WGs)(e.g. on 11/12/13.3.2009)

  18. More on communication, coordination, and cooperation … • “What can COSMO do for me?” • Let us (WG coordinators, PP leaders, SPM, STC) know … • We will try our best! • “What can I do for COSMO?” • Let COSMO (i.e., your WG / WG coordinator, your PP / PP leader, the SPM, the STC) know (what you do) … • Please try your best!

  19. More on communication, coordination, and cooperation … • www.cosmo-model.org • cosmo-wg?@cosmo-model.org • cosmo-all@cosmo-model.org

  20. Let’s make COSMO even cooler! Let’s start right here and now: in Cracow!

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