ASMT: Where Do We Go From Here? Science Agenda, Work Plan, Next Steps

1. ASMT: Where Do We Go From Here?Science Agenda, Work Plan, Next Steps Gulf Coastal Plains & Ozarks Landscape Conservation CooperativeAdaptation Science Management Team Conference Call March 7, 2013

2. Topics for Today Science Agenda Work Plan RFP

3. Outline • Context • GCPOLCC • ASMT • Science Agenda • Purpose • Strategic Habitat Conservation • Biological Planning • Conservation Design • Science Need Themes • Work Plan and Timeline

4. GCPOLCC • A non-regulatory private, state, and federal conservation partnership • Mission • Define, design, and deliver landscapes capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future • Integrating priorities across resource perspectives • Incorporating future change into current planning

5. GCPOLCC ASMT

6. Adaptation Science Management TeamStructure

7. Adaptation Science Management TeamStructure

8. Adaptation Science Management TeamStructure Functional Researcher Manager Both Organizational Federal State NGO/Private Partnership

9. Adaptation Science Management TeamStructure Functional Researcher Manager Both Organizational Federal State NGO/Private Partnership

10. Adaptation Science Management TeamStructure Functional Researcher Manager Both Organizational Federal State NGO/Private Partnership

11. ASMT Meeting • Starkville, MS (September 2012) • Conservation Frameworks • Conceptual Models • Conservation Targets

12. ASMT Meeting • Starkville, MS (September 2012) • Conservation Frameworks • Prediction and Scenario Planning • Importance of decision context • Conceptual Models • Drivers affecting habitats through specific stressors • Primary stressors • Terrestrial: Loss and fragmentation of habitat • Aquatic: Altered hydrology • Conservation Targets • Hierarchy: ecosystem, landscape, community, species • Species as “indicators” of desired landscape endpoints

13. ASMT Conference Call • Update and Progress Report • Steering Committee response • FWS Surrogate Species Workshops • Next Tasks • Compile Conceptual Models • Explore Decision Contexts • Identify Priority Habitats

14. Feedback Any questions, comments, concerns?

15. DRAFT Science Agenda and Work Plan • Purpose • Articulate the initial subset of science needs that are the specific priorities of the GCPOLCC Partnership and the logic behind their identification • Communication tool • Context for LCC science

16. Conservation Framework • Decision Context • Decisions reflect a specific action at a specific place to affect a specific target Prescribed burn on 40 acres of longleaf pine in Hancock County to promote an herbaceous understory for bobwhites Reforestation of 200 acres of bottomland hardwoods in Tensas Parish to restore connectivity for black bears Streambank stabilization on a ½-mile reach of the Kings River to reduce erosion and maintain flow suitable for smallmouth

17. Conservation Framework • Decision Context • Decisions reflect a specific action at a specific place to affect a specific target Prescribed burn on 40 acres of longleaf pine in Hancock County to promote an herbaceous understory for bobwhites Reforestation of 200 acres of bottomland hardwoods in Tensas Parish to restore connectivity for black bears Streambank stabilization on a ½-mile reach of the Kings River to reduce erosion and maintain flow suitable for smallmouth

18. Conservation Framework • Decision Context • Decisions reflect a specific action at a specific place to affect a specific target Prescribed burn on 40 acres of longleaf pine in Hancock County to promote an herbaceous understory for bobwhites Reforestation of 200 acres of bottomland hardwoods in Tensas Parish to restore connectivity for black bears Streambank stabilization on a ½-mile reach of the Kings River to reduce erosion and maintain flow suitable for smallmouth

19. Conservation Framework • Decision Context • Decisions reflect a specific action at a specific place to affect a specific target Prescribed burn on 40 acres of longleaf pine in Hancock County to promote an herbaceous understory for bobwhites Reforestation of 200 acres of bottomland hardwoods in Tensas Parish to restore connectivity for black bears Streambank stabilization on a ½-mile reach of the Kings River to reduce erosion and maintain flow suitable for smallmouth

20. Conservation Framework • Decision Context • Decisions reflect a specific action at a specific place to affect a specific target • Spatial depiction of this logic is conservation design

21. GCPOLCC • Mission • Define, design, and deliver landscapes capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future

22. GCPOLCC • Mission • Define, design, and deliver landscapes capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future

23. GCPOLCC • Mission • Define, design, and deliver landscapes capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future

24. Biological Planning • Define • Landscapes • Natural and cultural resources • Desired levels

25. Defining Landscapes Interior Highlands Mississippi Alluvial Valley West Gulf Coastal Plain East Gulf Coastal Plain Gulf Coast Geographic frame of reference

26. Biological Planning • Define • Landscapes • Natural and cultural resources

27. Defining Natural Resources • Habitat frame of reference • Broadly Defined Habitats (Pyne and Hunter) • Beaches and Dunes • Bogs, Fens, and Seeps • Cave, Karst, and Springs • Estuarine Systems • Forested Wetlands • Freshwater Aquatic • Freshwater Transitional • Grasslands-Prairies-Savannas • Marine • Open Pine Woodlands and Savannas • Scrub-Shrub • Upland Hardwoods

28. Defining Natural Resources • Habitat frame of reference • Broadly Defined Habitats (Pyne and Hunter) • Broadly applicable • Limited subset of classes • Universally recognizable • Easily mappable

31. Defining Desired Levels • Endpoints define the desired states for broadly-defined habitats • Endpoints are hierarchical • Ecosystem • Ecologically important processes • Landscape • Spatial and temporal patterns of habitat • Community • Biotic diversity and composition • Species • Ecological role (habitat, functional, etc.)

32. Open Pine Woodland and Savanna • Desired State of the System • Forest, woodlands, and savannas comprised mostly of pine with low basal area, open canopies, and dense herbaceous understories in large interconnected blocks • How much pine? • How low does the basal area need to be? • How open the canopy? • How much understory? • How large the forest block? • How interconnected?

34. Defining Desired Levels • Landscape endpoints – spatial and temporal patterns of habitat • Terrestrial • Amount (acres) • Configuration (patch size, connectivity, etc.) • Condition • Structure (e.g., stem density, basal area, canopy cover, etc.) • Composition (e.g., oak, pine, grass, forb, tree, etc.) • Aquatic • Amount (acres or miles) • Configuration (connectivity) • Condition • Water quantity (flow) • Water quality (e.g., pH, nutrient load, etc.) • Structure (e.g., substrate, channel morphology, etc.)

35. Science Need Themes Defining desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints is a top priority Species-habitat models that quantify relationship between indicator species and limiting factors reflecting desired states for each habitat is needed

36. Feedback Any questions, comments, concerns, reactions?

37. Defining Desired Levels • Species as indicators of desired spatial and temporal patterns of habitat only reflect ecological values for landscape • Wildlife are only one type of ecosystem good or service that can be derived from a landscape • Identification of other goods and services that serve as indicators of desirable economic and cultural states for each habitat are also needed • For now, the ASMT will primarily focus on ecological indicators

38. Feedback Any questions, comments, concerns, reactions?

39. Conservation Design • Current assessment of the landscape • Amount • Configuration • Condition • Ecosystem goods • Predicting future landscapes • Amount • Configuration • Condition • Ecosystem goods

40. Science Needs Themes • Current assessment of the landscape • Amount • Configuration • Condition • Ecosystem goods • Predicting future landscapes • Amount • Configuration • Condition • Ecosystem goods

41. Feedback Any questions, comments, concerns, reactions?

42. Scenario Planning High uncertainty about future change necessitates a scenario planning approach

43. Scenario Planning • Needs • What are the key drivers of system change? • How do they impact endpoints reflecting our desired states?

44. Conceptual Ecosystem Modeling East Gulf Coastal Plain

45. Conceptual Ecosystem Modeling East Gulf Coastal Plain

46. Scenario Planning

47. Conservation Framework • Decision Context • Decisions reflect a specific action at a specific place to affect a specific target • Spatial depiction of this logic is conservation design

48. Conservation Framework • Decision Context • Priorities • Objectives • Options • Criteria for evaluating options There is a need to better define decision contexts for a variety of decisions faced by managers to fully take advantage of multi-criteria decision-making

49. Summary of Science Need Themes Define desired states for each habitat in terms of specific endpoints Species-habitat relationships for species indicative of desired states for habitats ID of indicators for economically and culturally sustainable landscapes Current assessment of landscape Prediction of alternative future landscapes ID prominent drivers of system change and mechanisms by which they act Better define decision context

50. Feedback Any questions, comments, concerns, reactions? What do you want me to do?