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National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center/ Weather Forecast Office

National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center/ Weather Forecast Office Honolulu, Hawaii Hurricane Preparedness - 2009. Jim Weyman Director/Meteorologist in Charge. Overview. Forecast Office Structure and Programs Hurricane Information Recipe for Tropical Cyclones

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National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center/ Weather Forecast Office

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  1. National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center/ Weather Forecast Office Honolulu, Hawaii Hurricane Preparedness - 2009 Jim Weyman Director/Meteorologist in Charge

  2. Overview Forecast Office Structure and Programs Hurricane Information Recipe for Tropical Cyclones Summary – 2007 Central Pacific TC Season Forecast – 2008 Central Pacific TC Season Climate Change and Variability Triple Threat Hurricane Products Hurricane Preparedness Conclusion

  3. Mission NOAA's National Weather Service Provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States,its territories, adjacent waters and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

  4. NOAA NWS Pacific Region • Pacific Region Headquarters • Pacific Tsunami Warning Center • CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu (Co-located at UH-Manoa) • 2 Data Collection Offices (Hilo and Lihue) • WFO Guam

  5. CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (Largest Forecast Office in U.S.) • 8 Management Staff (5 Meteorologists) • 20 Meteorologists • 4 Hydro-meteorological Technicians • 1 Meteorologist Intern • 2 Electronics Technicians • 2 Contract Information Technologists • 1 International Pacific Training Desk Trainer • 2 Pacific ENSO Application Climate Center • 1 Contract Climate Services Personnel

  6. Local Forecast Office Programs • Hawaii - Watches, Warnings, Advisories, and Forecasts • Public - Day to day • Aviation - 11 Airport Forecasts • Satellite - Tropical Weather Outlooks • Hydrology - Flash Flooding, Drought • Marine - Winds, Waves, Seas, Surf, Rip Tides • Climate - El Nino / La Nina Impacts • Fire Weather - Wildfires, HAZMAT • Winter Weather - Yes it snows in Hawaii • Severe Weather – Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Hail

  7. Regional Forecast Programs • Central Pacific Hurricane Center • Central Pacific 140W to 180 north of Equator • UN World Meteorological Organization Recognized Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for Central Pacific • Marine • High Seas Forecast (N and S Pacific) • Aviation • Advisories of Significant Weather for Aircraft • Climate – Pacific ENSO Application Climate Center

  8. Tropical Cyclone Forecast Centers

  9. Tropical Cyclones - Hurricane Iniki, Sep 11, 1992 Direct hits rare…but devastating • 3 in last 50 years • Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992)

  10. Terminology • Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes. • Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C) • Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name. • Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph

  11. Saffir/Simpson Scale Category Winds One 75-95 mph (65-82 kts) Two 96-110 mph (83-95 kts) Three 111-130 mph (96-113 kts) Four 131-155 mph (114-135 kts) Five 155+ mph (135+ kts)

  12. Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season • Season: June 1 to November 30 • Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month • Central Pacific Average per Year • 4-5 Tropical Cyclones • 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones • 36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms, 36% Tropical Depressions

  13. Recipe for Tropical Cyclones • Sea Surface Temperatures • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area • Weak Vertical Wind Shear • Low Level Disturbance • Region of upper level divergence/outflow

  14. Sea-Surface Temperature Climatology

  15. Recipe for Tropical Cyclones • Sea Surface Temperatures • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area • Weak Vertical Wind Shear • Low Level Disturbance • Region of upper level divergence/outflow

  16. Effect of Vertical Wind Shear 40,000 ft/200 mb H H Typical cruising altitude of commercial airplane Heat Heat 5,000 ft/850 mb L L Surface

  17. Mean streamline analysis at approximately 30,000 ft over the Pacific for July (Thin lines) and associated mean July tropical cyclone tracks (Broad arrows)

  18. Central Pacific Hurricanes 40-Year Track History

  19. Recipe for Tropical Cyclones • Sea Surface Temperatures • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area • Weak Vertical Wind Shear • Low Level Disturbance • Region of upper level divergence/outflow

  20. Recipe for Tropical Cyclones • Sea Surface Temperatures • 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area • Weak Vertical Wind Shear • Low Level Disturbance • Region of upper level divergence/outflow

  21. Divergence = Exhaust

  22. Surveillance and ForecastingAids • Satellites – Geostationary and Polar Orbit • Reconnaissance Aircraft • “Hurricane Hunters” • 4 Doppler Radars • Intensity, Winds, and Rainfall • Hurricane Models – Multiple Ones

  23. Tropical Storm Kika 7-12 August 2008 • First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008 • Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength • No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands

  24. Tropical Storm Kika 7 - 12 August 2008 Hawaii

  25. Tropical Storm Kika 8 August 2008 530pm

  26. Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for Central Pacific • El Nino (Warmer) – Possible Impacts • More Active Hurricane Seasons • Greater Chance of Late Season Hurricanes • Drought Conditions During Winter Months • Numerous High Surf Events • La Nina (Cooler) and Neutral Conditions • No Strong Statistical Correlations • Tendencies of Normal to Less Active Hurricane Seasons and Near Normal to Above Rainfall

  27. Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones 5 Most Active Seasons for Period 1971-2008 Year TC H TS TD • 1994 11 5 3 3 (El Nino Year) • 1992 11 3 3 5 (El Nino Year) • 1982 10 4 6 0 (El Nino Year) • 1997 9 0 5 4 (El Nino Year) • 1985 8 4 2 2 (La Nina Year)

  28. Decadal Variations • 1971-1994 Average about 5 systems per year with much variation • 1995-2006 (not including 1997) Average about 3.5 systems per year with little variation • Possibly produced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation Change in 1995 and late 1960s

  29. Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones 1957-2008 # of storms year

  30. 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook • 80% near to below normal season • Seasonal Forecast 3-5 Tropical Cyclones • 20% chance of above normal season • 6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El Nino develops • Based Upon • The ongoing conditions of suppressed activity since 1995 • Near normal ocean temperatures and then development of El Niño or warmer than normal temperatures during the later part of the season. • Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook

  31. Hurricanes and Global Warming • Healthy Scientific Debate • Some studies have shown same number of hurricanes but more intense • Some studies show lack of long term data to make conclusive statement • Some studies show increase in damage and impacts due to societal changes • Some studies have indicated a possibility of increased number of hurricane in central Pacific

  32. BREAK!

  33. Tropical Cyclone Impacts • Extreme wind conditions Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mph Iwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph • Flash Flooding Iniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frame TD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo • Storm Surge, High surf Iniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surge Estelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

  34. Wind Destruction on Kauai Sheets of roofing iron, a pallet, broken plants and other debris fly through the air at the height of Hurricane Iniki in Lihue, Kauai (Photo by Bruce Asato, courtesy of the Honolulu Advertiser).

  35. Wind-blown Debris can Become Deadly Projectiles in a Hurricane 44

  36. Damage varies widely due to wind speed and type of structure 45

  37. Roof on Kauai during Iniki (1992)

  38. Ocean Waves Extreme Winds MWL Wave Runup Wave Setup SWL Currents Storm Inundation Storm Surge High Tide MSL after Harper (2001)

  39. Oblique aerial photograph showing overwash debris (the line of light colored material near middle of the picture) near Kukuiula, southern Kauai (view to west)

  40. Central Pacific Hurricane CenterText Products • Tropical Weather Outlook • Tropical Cyclone Discussion • Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory • Hurricane Local Statements

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