Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Election - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Election

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  1. Voter Turnout in 2004 Presidential Election • 59.6%

  2. Who Voted in 2004? • What are benefits of voting? • What are costs of voting? • 2004 Presidential Election • US Census Bureau, • Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004

  3. Education

  4. Income

  5. Age

  6. Race

  7. Employment Status

  8. Who Votes? • Socioeconomic Status (SES) Explanation • voters with higher income and education have the civic skills to understand the value of voting, the difference between the candidates. • Policy Implication

  9. Educate & Inform

  10. Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections

  11. % of Americans Voting in National Elections

  12. Voter Turnout in LA Gubernatorial Elections

  13. Vote for the Crook, It’s Important

  14. Average % Voting in National Elections, last 6 election cycles

  15. SES Explanation • description or explanation • Alternative Explanations • Policy Implications • Political considerations • Change the rules, change the electorate • Change the electorate, change the outcomes • Elected officials make the rules

  16. Voter Registration

  17. Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections

  18. Policy Implications • Same Day/Election Day Registration (MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY) • Motor Voter Registration

  19. Same Day/Election Day Registration • (MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY) 5 of 7 top states in turnout

  20. Source: US Census, US Population Survey, 2004 Presidential Election

  21. Least likely to be registered • Young, mobile, less affluent, minority • Ohio- just adopted same day voter registration • 490,000 college students • Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner

  22. Source: Young voters,USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll, Sept. 18-28, 60+, Black, Latino, Sep 13, Gallup

  23. Source: CNN Exit Polls, 2004 Presidential Election

  24. Motor Voter Registration • register by mail, applying for a driver's license, at all offices that provide public assistance

  25. Impact of Motor Voter • “We find little evidence that early voting reforms increase turnout with the exception of VBM in Oregon, and then only in presidential elections. In midterm elections, none of the reforms has a statistically significant impact on turnout….”

  26. Too Many Elections • 521,000 elected offices • National, state, local, school, library, referendums • ..\..\toomanyelections.xls

  27. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2006

  28. Why hold elections on Tuesday? • National Holiday • Mail-in Voting

  29. Electoral System • US- first past the post system • Europeans- proportional representation • Consequences • fosters 2 parties • hurts smaller parties • No pro-life party, green party, or African American party • 148 candidates in CA recall election = 70% turnout?

  30. Lack of Mobilization • 1876-1896, turnout in presidential elections averaged 80% • Now, Unprecedented GOTV- 59% • Does it matter if you vote in New York, Texas, or California?

  31. Voter ID Laws • GA- voters to present either a driver's license or a state-issued photo ID 2005 • 35$ available at DMV

  32. Milwaukee Black Voters League Flier • “if anyone in your family has ever been found guilty of anything, even a traffic violation, you can't vote in the presidential election. If you violate any of these laws you can get ten years in prison and your children will get taken away from you." 2004

  33. FelonDisenfranchisement

  34. But…

  35. Is Internet or E-Voting the solution to declining turnout?

  36. Costs Registration Hassles Information ======== Solutions Easier registration E vote, mail in ballots Group mobilization Fewer elections Benefits Psychic Policy Solutions Minority voters Conservatives in 98’ Reduce cynicism about politics Vote matters Costs v. Benefits of Voting

  37. Should we be concerned that only 50.7% of Americans voted?

  38. low turnout NOT a problem • reflects contentment • George Will “As more people are nagged to the polls, the caliber of the electorate declines. • no difference between voters and non-voters preferences • What happens with record turnout?

  39. 2 Recent High Turnout Elections 1998 MN Gubernatorial Race 2003 CA Recall Election

  40. Low Turnout IS a problem • Voting pool is unrepresentative of nation • HMO bill of rights vs uninsured

  41. Decline of Social Capital 1970-1995

  42. TV Usage: “TV is my primary form of entertainment”