Artjoms (Tom) Ivļevs University of the West of England and University of Nottingham

1. Together or apart? Attitudes towards multi-ethnic state and ethnically mixed communities in post-independence Kosovo. Artjoms(Tom) Ivļevs University of the West of England and University of Nottingham Roswitha M. King Østfold University College and University of Latvia Western Balkans: Poverty and Inclusion Brussels, December 14-15, 2010

2. Motivation • The independent State of Kosovo was proclaimed in February 2008 • The State of Kosovo was concieved as a “multiethnic” country where • “the members of (ethnic) communities have the right to freely express, foster and develop their identity and community attributes” • “the State ensures appropriate conditions enabling communities, and their members to preserve, protect and develop their identities Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo

3. Questions • What do Kosovars themselves think about the viability of their nation as a multiethnic state? • Is there a difference in attitudes towards multiethnic state between ethnic Albanians and ethnic Serbs? • Do factors like age, income, education affect the attitudes towards multiethnic state?

4. Independence: for many - a dream come true ...

5. A disappointment for others ...

6. Plan • Background information • Data • Methodology • Results • Conclusion

7. Ethnic diversity in Kosovo • Albanians – 88% • Serbs – 6% • Other minorities (Gorani, Turkish, Bosnian, Ashkali , Roma… ) – 6%

9. The survey • The survey was carried out by Ipsos Strategic Puls (regional HQ in Belgrade)in June 2008 • Timing: 4 months after the declaration of independence; calmer political circumstances • The survey addressed various questions related to migration, remittances and attitudes about the multiethnic state and the EU membership • 1367 face-to-face interviews: • 845 with ethnic Albanians • 482 with ethnic Serbs (Serb sub-sample boosted) • 40 with other ethnic minorities (Turkish, Bosniak, Ashkali and Roma).

10. Main questions “Do you think Kosovo can work out as a multi-ethnic state?” • No • Probably no • Probably yes • Yes “Do you think it is better that different ethnic groups live separately or in mixed areas?” • Better live separately • Better live in mixed areas

11. “Do you think Kosovo can work out as a multi-ethnic state?”

12. “Do you think it is better that different ethnic groups live separately or in mixed areas?”

13. The model Pro_multi_ethnici = α * ethnicityi + β * socio-demographic characteristicsi + γ * district fixed effectsj + unobserved error termi Pro_co_locationi = α * ethnicityi + β * socio-demographic characteristicsi + γ * district fixed effectsj + unobserved error termi • Ordered and multinomial probit models • Estimate the models for the whole sample (ethnically weighted), and separately for ethnic Albanians and ethnic Serbs

14. Explanatory variables • Ethnicity • Albanian • Serb • Non-Serb minority • Age • Male • Married • Has children under 18 • 6 income levels • 3 education levels • Student • Unemployed • Lives in rural area • 5 district dummies • South East • South West • Central • North • North West

15. Can Kosovo work out as a multi-ethnic state?Ordered probit marginal effects

16. Can Kosovo work out as a multi-ethnic state?Ordered probit marginal effects

18. Live separately or in mixed areas?

19. Live separately or in mixed areas?

21. Conclusions • Ethnicity is a major factor determining attitudes towards the multiethnic state and ethnically mixed habitats • Ethnic Serbs are less favourable to ethnic co-location • The richer and the more educated (especially the ethnic Albanians) tend to be more favourable to Kosovo as a multiethnic state • Important role accrues to age, gender, employment status and region of residence