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Washington State Energy Past / Present / Future

Washington State Energy Past / Present / Future. Tim Stearns Senior Energy Policy Specialist Washington State Department of Commerce Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov. Energy. Environment. Economy.

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Washington State Energy Past / Present / Future

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  1. Washington State Energy Past / Present / Future Tim Stearns Senior Energy Policy Specialist Washington State Department of Commerce Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov

  2. Energy Environment Economy

  3. “…Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices. The cry is for low prices, ample supplies, absolute reliability, clean air, no disfiguring construction projects, local autonomy and national accountability. Great. Unfortunately, there are tensions among all these goals.” Paul Samuelson, Washington Post, August 20, 2003

  4. Washington State’s Energy Profile

  5. Washington’s emerging challenges • State grows 130,000 people per year • 1.3 million per decade – double < 50 yr • 273 to house, feed, employ, transport, educate… • 300 new megawatts per year • Can we double system in 50 years? • No new dams sites – 15,000 miles lines • New subdivision – apartment • Car culture – walkable communities?

  6. Expenditures on Fossil FuelsWashington State: 1999-2008 Excludes fuel taxes, refinery and pipeline costs and profits Sources: EIA, BEA and Sightline

  7. Today • 11 million people • Largest hydrosystem • Fossil fuel transportation • imported • Car based • Plenty of inefficiency • Centralized generation • Future • 20 + million • Integrated system • Clean fuel • Locally produced • Transit and vehicles • Zero energy buildings • distributed

  8. Energy is a Big Part of “Green” Jobs

  9. The Science of Climate Change is Very Strong “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.” Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Synthesis Report

  10. WA Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2005) Total = 94.8 million metric tons CO2-equivalent

  11. State Targets - Reduce Emissions Grow Our Economy By 2020reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels By 2035reduce emissions to 25% below 1990 levels By 2050reduce emissions to 50% below 1990 levels By 2020increase the number of clean energy sector jobs to 25,000 from the 8,400 jobs in 2004 By 2020reduce expenditures by 20% on fuel imported into the state

  12. Efficiency

  13. “Six Americas”—six groups or “publics”beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, motivations, values, policy preferences, behaviors and barriers to action 1. Alarmed—16 percent of Americans—are eager to get on with solutions 2. Concerned—29 percent—know climate change is happening, human caused and serious, but they don’t necessarily see the urgency. 3. Cautious—25 percent—happening natural or human-caused. 4. Disengaged—8 percent—have heard of global warming but don’t know 5. Doubtful—13 percent—don’t think it’s happening, or natural. 6. Dismissive—8 percent—convinced not happening, hoax or a plot. Listen - values - motivations common ground.

  14. Energy efficiency always should be America’s highest-priority energy resource.Cheapcleanreliablesecure

  15. Conservation is Cost-effective Under Many Different Future Scenarios Source: NW Power and Conservation Council - Draft 6th Plan

  16. Renewable Energy

  17. Washington’s First Renewable “Revolution” • Much of WA Post WWII Economy Tied to Inexpensive Renewable Electricity • Aluminum Industry • Defense Industry • Forest Products, Chemical • Rural Electrification

  18. Renewable Portfolio Standards www.dsireusa.org / October 2009 WA: 15% by 2020* ME: 30% by 2000 New RE: 10% by 2017 VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017 MN: 25% by 2025 (Xcel: 30% by 2020) MT: 15% by 2015 • NH: 23.8% by 2025 ND: 10% by 2015 MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015* • MA: 15% by 2020+1% annual increase(Class I Renewables) • OR: 25% by 2025(large utilities)* 5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities) SD: 10% by 2015 WI: Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal • NY: 24% by 2013 RI: 16% by 2020 CT: 23% by 2020 • NV: 25% by 2025* IA: 105 MW • OH: 25% by 2025† • CO: 20% by 2020(IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)* • PA: 18% by 2020† WV: 25% by 2025*† • IL: 25% by 2025 • NJ: 22.5% by 2021 CA: 33% by 2020 UT: 20% by 2025* KS: 20% by 2020 VA: 15% by 2025* • MD: 20% by 2022 • MO: 15% by 2021 • AZ: 15% by 2025 • DE: 20% by 2019* • NC: 12.5% by 2021(IOUs) 10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis) • DC: 20% by 2020 • NM: 20% by 2020(IOUs) • 10% by 2020 (co-ops) TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 29 states & DChave an RPS 6 states have goals HI: 40% by 2030 State renewable portfolio standard Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement * State renewable portfolio goal Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables † Solar water heating eligible Includes non-renewable alternative resources

  19. We’re Number 4! Source : American Wind Energy Assoc. (12.31.09)

  20. Resource Costs: Long Term Source: NW Power and Conservation Council – Draft 6th Plan

  21. Initiative 937 – Energy Independence Act Sets the Policy Framework for Utility Development of Renewable Electricity 3% of Total Load by 2009 9% by 2012 15% by 2020 State’s large electric utilities must develop conservation plans to acquire all cost effective conservation First plan must be completed by Jan. 1, 2010 and set targets for 2010-2012 biennium

  22. Bioenergy Development • Biodiesel Facilities • Anaerobic Digesters • Research on Alternative Feedstocks • Bioenergy • Biomass CHP

  23. Not in My Backyard ! ! • I Gregoire approves wind-power project

  24. Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

  25. "In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable." –General Dwight D. Eisenhower

  26. A successful state energy strategy balance goals to: • Maintain competitive energy prices • Increase competitiveness • Meet the state's enivronmental goals • Be sustainable

  27. Framework for success - alignment • Policy • Mandates - create markets • Tax incentives • regulation • Leverage partners • Private sector • Federal government

  28. Clean Energy Leadership Council • Advisory group of clean energy industry leaders • Charged – How does the state build its clean energy industry? • Four major opportunity areas • Smart Grid • Energy Efficiency • “Green” building and the built environment • Sustainable biomass, biofuels, Bioproducts • Major study by Navigant Consulting – Fall ‘10

  29. Align Core Mission • Grow and improve jobs in Washington • Align Policies and Execution • Policy and Innovation Unit within Commerce • “Sector Lead”

  30. Major State Energy Programs (ARRA) • Low-Income Weatherization $59 million • State Energy Program (SEP) $60 million • $38.5 million for Loan and Grant • $14. 5 neighborhood Energy Efficiency • $5 million credit enhancement for energy efficiency • $500k for farm efficiency tools • State and Local Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants $56 million • Most directly to large local government and tribes • $6.4 million to small cities and counties • Transportation planning grants • Resource Conservation Manager grants

  31. Major State Energy Programs (ARRA) • State and Local Block EE Block Grant Competitive • $390 million to 8 to 20 district energy efficiency projects • 5 to 1 leverage • Large cities, counties, tribes, state • Residential and commercial sector energy efficiency • Also $ 63 million to small cities/counties for energy efficiency • Appliance Rebate Program $6.2 million • Energy Assurance $810,000 • Utility Commission Assistance $900,000

  32. What’s on the Horizon? • Will natural gas have a new (old) role? • Have high gasoline prices (and the recession) permanently altered demand? • When will be have a price on carbon? Can we massively increase investment in efficiency? • What are the next big technological breakthroughs? • Electric vehicles • Next generation biofuels • Inexpensive photovoltaics • Zero energy buildings

  33. Smart Energy • $ Savings • New services • Reliability • Security • Efficiency • Environment • Safety

  34. Key Trends/Observations - Energy • Building Energy Efficiency • Largely driven by building codes and appliance standards • Moving toward more efficient building with generation included • Best building practices integrate envelope, hvac, lighting and occupants • Efficiency activity driven by utility rebates, programs and public investment • Transportation Electrification • Washington State is involved in one of the largest demonstration of electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, energy storage (batteries) • Key challenge will be integrating with the existing electric system • Creating opportunities in Software, Composites, Smart Grid • Wind Energy • State is working with companies to capture more of the wind value chain – spare parts, operations, maintenance and training • East central, Southeast and the Gorge continue to draw development. • Diverse partners coming together for the world’s largest wind tradeshow. • Manufacturers attempting to apply excess capacity to this new sector 50

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