Alternative Fuels in East TN Reasons, Technical Info, Users & What’s to Come

1. Alternative Fuels in East TNReasons, Technical Info, Users & What’s to Come East Tennessee Section of the AiChE Eastman, Room B-150C :: Nov. 13, 2007 <> Jonathan Overly, Director East Tennessee Clean Fuels Coalition

2. Today’s Agenda 1. The Basics - Alternative Fuels 101 2. Current U.S. Oil Production & Prices 3. Current Energy & Oil Peaking Picture 4. Energy In vs. Energy Out 5. The Air Quality Connection for East TN 6. Biodiesel -- What, emissions, ET picture, users 7. Ethanol -- What, UTBI, Billion Ton Vision 8. Options for East Tennesseans to Make a Difference The ETCFC’s 2007 Founding Partners:

3. The Basics - Alternative Fuels 101The Reasons for their Use • Cleaner burn equals reduced pollution, both up high and nearby • Reduce foreign oil dependence • American fuels diversity • Reduce national security risks due to importing oil from not-so-friendly countries (e.g., Iran, Venezuela) • Promote renewable resource use • Helps create jobs in the USA!

4. AF101 - What percentages of these alt fuels are domestically produced? Biodiesel - 100% Electricity - 95% Ethanol - 100% Natural gas - 90% Propane - 95% Gasoline + Diesel = 40% vs. In 1945, we were 0% dependent on foreign countries for oil; now we are 60% dependent. ~60 years = 0-60% reliance on others for oil~

5. U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Crude Oil Production Doesn’t look good, does it?

6. U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Imports by Country EIA - “However, Pemex has warned that Cantarell production has now entered a stage of long-term decline.” (one field accounts for 60% of their oil). Still doesn’t look good, at least for us using American fuels.

7. U.S. EIA Data – Petroleum:Historic Crude Oil Prices Where is this pattern headed?

8. Long-termU.S. Energy Data - Production

9. Really Long-term U.S. Energy Data (Consumption) & Where Fossil Fuels Come From What does this growth curve look like if add up all these different forms of energy we are consuming?

10. Really Long-term U.S. Energy Data (Consumption) & Where Fossil Fuels Come From Just the facts here, people.

11. When Peaking? No one knows for certain • ForecastSource • December 2005 Deffeyes (U.S.) • 2006-2007 Bakhitari (Iran) • 2007-2009 Simmons (U.S.) • After 2007 Skrebowski (U.K.) • 2010 Campbell (Ireland) • Before 2010 Goodstein (U.S.) • After 2010 World Energy Council 2012 Weng (China) 2016 Doug-Westwood (U.K.) • After 2020 CERA (U.S.) • 2030 or later EIA (U.S) / Exxon Mobil 5 years 5-15 years #2  #1  > 20 years From Robert Hirsch’s presentation “Peaking of World Oil Production” at the National Clean Cities Congress & Expo ~ May 8, 2006

12. Forget the oil peak for a minute:who do you want to give your money to?

13. Oil Systems #1 = Least efficient U.S. Energy Flow Map – 2001 This is why improving fuel economy and using hybrids is important!

14. Oil Systems #2 = Least diversified Fuel Use Within Sectors Graph courtesy of the Central Ohio Clean Fuels Coalition (COCFC)

15. One Way to Look atLife-cycle Fossil Energy Efficiency Image from the U.S. DOE & Michael Wang of Argonne Nat’l Lab and his GREET Model.

16. Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Basis What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input: Circle graphs courtesy of nationalgeographic.com

17. Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add  Gasoline & Diesel What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

18. Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add  Corn-based Ethanol What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

19. Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add  Today’s Biodiesel What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

20. Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add  Sugar-based Ethanol What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

21. Fossil Energy In vs. Energy Out as Fuel:Add  Cellulosic Ethanol What you get as output for every 1 unit of fossil energy input:

22. The Conundrum:All 3 Legs Needed Alternative fuels cannot do it alone. They must be teamed with significantly improving vehicle fuel efficiency and energy conservation to really achieve the ultimate goal of foreign oil, or oil period, independence.

23. Air Quality – We Are Not Meeting Federal Health-based Standards! If EPA reduces the 8-hour O3 threshold to 75 ppb, more TN counties will be NA.

24. Biodiesel – Summary 25 public stations (4 coming in TC!); ~100 fleets using blends today 5 Plants in Tennessee now – 3 Plants Being Built in East TN • Nu-Energie, LLC – Phipps Bend • Suns-Oil, LCC – southeastern TN • Northington Energy – Morgan County Pros • Is the only alt fuel that can yield increased economy and power • No new vehicles or infra. Required; Fill-n-go option at ≤ B20 • Renewable; less smoke & smell; biodegradable & nontoxic • Helps equipment last longer; less wear and tear Cons • Possible fuel filter changes; all biodiesel gels faster than diesel

25. Biodiesel Emissions Reductions(from NREL 2001) • PollutantB20B100 • Carbon dioxide (CO2) life-cycle - 15% - 75% • Carbon monoxide (CO) - 13% - 43% • Hydrocarbons (VOCs) - 11% - 56% • Nitrogen oxides (NOx) + 1-2%* + 6% • Sulfur dioxide (SO2) - 19-20% - 99% • Particulate matter (PM) - 12-18%** - 55% • Carcinogenic compounds - 20% - 80-90% • Air toxics - 12-20% - 60-90% * With a low-NOx additive, can be a 5-40% reduction. Additionally, new studies show reductions in NOx in new engines w/o additives. ** Over 90% of diesel PM is PM-2.5 or smaller, with about 70% being 1 micron or smaller in size.

26. Biodiesel Emissions Reductions(graphical presentation)

27. Biodiesel Explosion in ET – 3/04Consumption in 2003: zero gals B100

28. Biodiesel Explosion in ETB100 use (gal): ’03-0, ’04-90k, ’05-750k, ’06-2.0m Public stations: ’03-0, ’04-5, ’05-17, ’06-25

29. ET Cities & Towns – Leaders for BiodieselCities with Populations >10,000(and smaller that have started biodiesel projects)

30. ET Public Biodiesel Stations(there were none in March 2004)As of 11/07 – 24: B99 - 2, B20 - 15, B5/B10 – 7& new B20s are either built or are planned!

31. Biodiesel Users in East Tennessee~85 fleets now using biodiesel

32. Regional Fleets - Biodiesel

33. Ethanol – Summary 2 public E85 stations; 3 on their way to Tri-Cities! about 50 public E10 stations, including ~15 in Tri-Cities Tennessee Ethanol Plants • 1 open today = Tate & Lyle – Loudon County (75 MGY) • Open soon = EGP – Obion County (100 MGY) • Opening in 2009 = UTBI/Mascoma Monroe County (5 MGY) Pros • E10 can run in ANY gasoline vehicle • E85 in flex-fuel vehicles, which can switch back and forth Cons • More power (octane rating of 105), but reduced fuel economy; easy to fix! Just price ethanol at 20-25% less than gas

34. Biorefinery Location Niles Ferry Industrial Park, Vonore, Tennessee < 35 miles to UT and ORNL Heart of Sweetwater Valley Transportation infrastructure Utilities & services Proximity to distributors

36. Billion Ton VisionBasis & Assumptions • Goal was set: By 2030, biomass will supply 5% of the nation’s power, 20% of its transportation fuels and 25% of its chemicals • That is equivalent to 30% of our current petroleum use, and will require 1 billion dry tons of biomass feedstock per year • Largest single source of biomass is forestlands (no parks, roads) • What assumptions? • Yields of corn, wheat and other small grains increased by 50% • Residue-to-grain ratio for soybeans increased to 2:1 • Harvest recovery capable of recovering 75% of annual crop residues • All cropland managed with no-till methods • 55M acres of cropland, idle cropland and cropland pasture dedicated to production of perennial bioenergy crops • All manure used for biofuel (excluding that applied on-farm for soil improvement) • All other available residues utilized

37. Billion Ton Vision OK… what’s the summary? Graph from the Billion Ton Study (manipulated by Jonathan Overly). “An annual biomass supply of more than 1.3 billion dry tons can be accomplished with relatively modest changes in land use and agricultural and forestry practices.”

38. What are the options for East Tennesseans to Make a Difference? FUEL ECONOMY • Look to purchase a vehicle that gets significantly (> 5 mpg) better fuel economy when purchasing next • Hybrids are just one option, but are a good choice USING ALTERNATIVE FUELS • E10 - Any current gasoline vehicle can use E10! • E85 - Look at an FFV for your next vehicle purchase • Biodiesel - Any diesel vehicle can burn a biodiesel blend - B20 CHANGING DRIVING HABITS OR STYLE • Bike, walk, carpool, use mass transit, trip chain • reduce your quick stops and starts, keep tires at right pressure

39. Another Way You Can Help Today –Join the ETCFC! • 5-year old East Tennessee nonprofit • Focused on education and creating “Actors for Change” in the transportation sector through greater use of alternative fuels, AFVs & more fuel efficient vehicles • Sustained by a combination of reg. memberships & state/federal grants • Local funding is critical to our receiving the grants! (matching) • ROI: • Newsletter, email list, meetings • Connection to the leading org. that is driving alt fuels use & higher efficiency vehicles use in East TN!

40. Considering this and this… shouldn’t we be doingall that we can to help?

41. “Do not follow where the path may lead. Go, instead, where there is no path and leave a trail.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson Your Link to Alternative FuelsInformation in East Tennessee:ETCleanFuels.org(865) 974-3625Questions?