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Mapping Geographical Clusters of Lung Cancer Mortality Rates

Matt Laurin - Morehead State University E-mail: mrlaur01@morehead-st.edu Aaron Pierce - Morehead State UniversityE-mail: anpierce@moreheadstate.e du. Mapping Geographical Clusters of Lung Cancer Mortality Rates. Timothy S. Hare IRAPP, MSU 414C Bert Combs Building Tel. 606-783-9436

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Mapping Geographical Clusters of Lung Cancer Mortality Rates

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  1. Matt Laurin - Morehead State University E-mail: mrlaur01@morehead-st.edu Aaron Pierce - Morehead State UniversityE-mail: anpierce@moreheadstate.edu Mapping Geographical Clusters of Lung Cancer Mortality Rates Timothy S. Hare IRAPP, MSU 414C Bert Combs Building Tel. 606-783-9436 E-mail: t.hare@morehead-st.edu 1

  2. Study Area

  3. Mortality Rates - All Causes

  4. LISA Cluster Map – Mortality - All Causes – Moran’s I 0.520***

  5. Age-Adjusted Mortality for All Causes

  6. LISA Cluster Map of Mortality for All Causes

  7. Research Questions • Are mortality rates due to lung cancer distributed evenly across central Appalachia? • What factors are associated with elevated mortality rates due to lung cancer? 7

  8. Key Tasks • Identify meaningful clusters of high mortality rates. • Use techniques of ESDA to characterize associated factors. • Examine the effects of factors on spatial clusters of high mortality rates. 8

  9. Data & Methods Data • SeerStat • Health Care Services • AHA Annual Survey • Additional surveys & questionnaires • Area Resource File • Socioeconomic Data - Census Methods • Spatial Aggregation • County-level (598) • Mortality Rates • Temporal Aggregation • Direct Standardization • Age-Adjusted Rates • Year 2000 U.S. Standard Population • Travel time calculations 9

  10. Analysis Techniques • Map visualization • Univariate & Bivariate Moran’s I • Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation • Spatial Regression (lag & error models) • Geographically Weighted Regression 10

  11. Research Question 1 • Are mortality rates due to lung cancer distributed evenly across central Appalachia? 11

  12. Age-Adjusted Mortality for Lung Cancer

  13. LISA Cluster Map of Lung Cancer Mortality

  14. Age-Adjusted Mortality for Lung Cancer by Sex

  15. LISA Cluster Map of Lung Cancer Mortality by Sex

  16. Female vs. Male Lung Cancer Mortality Multivariate LISA Cluster Map Moran’s I = 0.3700 p < 0.001

  17. Spatial Autocorrelation: Moran’s I Note: *** P < 0.001, ** P < 0.01, * P < 0.05

  18. Research Question 1 • Are mortality rates due to lung cancer distributed evenly across central Appalachia? - No 18

  19. Research Questions 2 • What factors are associated with elevated mortality rates due to Lung Cancer? 19

  20. Population Density (people/mile2) 20

  21. Median Household Income

  22. LISA Cluster Map – Median Income – Moran’s I 0.681***

  23. % with High School Education

  24. LISA Cluster Map – High School – Moran’s I 0.582***

  25. Total Household Health Care Expenditures

  26. LISA Cluster Map - Household Health Care – Moran’s I 0.579***

  27. Total Household Education Spending

  28. LISA Cluster Map – Total Education – Moran’s I 0.680***

  29. Bivariate Moran’s I vs. Total Mortality for Lung Cancer Note: *** P < 0.001, ** P < 0.01, * P < 0.05

  30. OLS Regression Model 1 Adjusted R-squared:    0.328321 Akaike info criterion:     4677.76 Note: *** P < 0.001, ** P < 0.01, * P < 0.05

  31. Spatial Regression Model 1 (Lag) R-squared:    0.49796    Akaike info criterion:     4575.46 Note: *** P < 0.001, ** P < 0.01, * P < 0.05

  32. Comparison of OLS & Spatial Lag Regression R-squared:    0.49796    Akaike info criterion:     4575.46 Adjusted R-squared:    0.328321 Akaike info criterion:     4677.76 Note: *** P < 0.001, ** P < 0.01, * P < 0.05

  33. Results • Mortality rates due to lung cancer are not distributed evenly across central Appalachia. • All examined factors are associated with elevated mortality rates due to lung cancer. 33

  34. Future Investigations • Further explore differences by sex • Deal with multicollinearity • Create composite deprivation index • Examine service utilization patterns • Examine • Tobacco use • Air quality 34

  35. Questions?! 35

  36. Thank You Thanks to: TheNational Center for Health Statistics for the mortality data. This Research is supported in part by: An MSU Faculty Research Grant KBRIN-NIH Research Grant The Institute for Regional Analysis and Public Policy Booth Endowment Research Grant Institute for Regional Analysis and Public Policy (IRAPP) Center of Excellence, MSU AKentucky Program of Distinction http://irapp.morehead-st.edu 36

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