“Valuing” the Social Sciences. An agenda for hard times eSocSci Seminar Series 31 October 2014

1. “Valuing” the Social Sciences. An agenda for hard timeseSocSci Seminar Series31 October 2014 Peter Davis University of Auckland pb.davis@auckland.ac.nz and COMPASS Research Centre www.compass.auckland.ac.nz

2. Outline • Are these “hard times”? • Making knowledge claims • Improving our methods • Inference by design • Making it count • Assessing and increasing impact • Concluding thoughts • “Public” social science • A professionalising agenda 2

3. “Straws in the wind” • Political • Public statements favouring STEM (Minister) • (Temporary?) Discontinuation of “Health and Society” strand within MBIE (previously MSI, FoRST) • Research funding • Ferociously competitive Marsden • HRC with greater clinical and biomedical emphasis • Complex selection processes (NSC, CoREs) • Public sector • Very tight public sector (e.g. contracts) • Greatly reduced intake to COMPASS methods school

4. 10 National Science Challenges Some Social Science Aspect Limited Social Science Aspect Biological heritage Land and water Sustainable seas Antarctica Resilience to natural disasters • Ageing well • Better start • Healthier lives • High-value nutrition • Technological innovation for growth

5. National Science Foundation, 2012

6. World Economic Forum (Davos) – Top 10 Global Risks, 2014 • Fiscal crises • Unemployment • Water crises • Income disparity • Climate change 6. Extreme weather 7. Governance failure 8. Food crises 9. Financial failure • Political/social instability

7. Role of the Social Sciences – 40 Years • Gibson report (1970) • “recommended that the Council develop a social science arm to foster development of research activity” (Neil Lunt PhD Thesis, 2004, p. 20) • Gluckman discussion paper (2011, p.15) • “Social science is not well constituted within the New Zealand science system and across or within those ministries and agencies that need such information to develop policy options”.

8. Outline • Are these “hard times”? BRIEF QUESTIONS? 8

9. Outline • Are these “hard times”? • Making knowledge claims • Improving our methods • Inference by design • Making it count • Assessing and increasing impact • Concluding thoughts • “Public” social science • A professionalising agenda 9

10. These Books Needed “Facts”!

11. “Knowledge Claims” in Social Science – Some of the Issues • By its nature, social science detects patterns beyond everyday observation • “Common sense” can lead you astray • Common mistakes can be made in public debate (e.g. not comparing “like with like”) • Governments are looking for “evidence”

12. RII=1.8 RII=2.1DeDa RII=2.3 1. Patterns “below the surface” – Death Rates by Occupational Class

13. 2. “Common sense” can be astray – Improving Driver Education

14. 3. Common mistakes in public debate Closing gaps favour young (NZ Herald) By VaimoanaTapaleao, James Ihaka, Simon Collins, Harkanwal Singh 5:30 AM Monday Mar 17, 2014 Gaps that are barely budging * Imprisonment rate - gaps may close in 1170 years.

15. 4. Governments and “evidence”

16. Outline • Are these “hard times”? • Making knowledge claims BRIEF QUESTIONS? 16

17. Outline • Improving our methods • Inference by design • Making it count 17

20. Avendano

21. Fixed Effects – Inequality and Mortality • Income inequality related to infant mortality • Strong ecological association income inequality with infant mortality across countries - but is it causal? • Fixed effects controls variation across countries • Approach relies on changes in inequality within countries over time – 34 OECD countries over 48 years, Gini and IMR. • Gini changes not associated with IMR changes • Possible that social policies reducing IMR cluster in relatively egalitarian countries, but their effects are not via income.

22. Strully et al.

23. Natural Experiment – Welfare and Health • Do work/income incentives affect infant health? • It is hypothesised that work/income schemes will raise incomes and employment for unmarried mothers with high school or less, and in turn improve infant health. • Using a “natural experiment” design • Variation between US states in introduction of income/work incentives to estimate effects prenatal poverty/infant health. • Labour market, incomes, birth weight, smoking • Schemes increased employment 19%, incomes 32%, increased infant birth weight, slightly reduced smoking

24. Outline • Improving our methods • Inference by design • Making it count 24

25. The Problem – British Academy

26. The Solution – “Nuffield Initiative”

27. Rectifying the ‘quantitative deficit’ in social science. A modest proposal! Peter Davis and colleagues COMPASS Research Centre [www.compass.auckland.ac.nz] Public Seminar, VUW Institute of Policy Studies Friday 12 November 2010 27

28. Some “Clarifications” • What I am NOT saying is • ALL social science disciplines are equally afflicted by this “deficit” • Psychology, Economics, Management (?) seem to be OK • There is NOBODY with quantitative skills in any department • There are notable exceptions, but true of some departments • Quantitative skills must DISPLACE qualitative ones • Students need both sets of skills – they should be “ambidextrous”! • Students should do courses taught by STATISTICIANS • This would scare them off and they would miss substantive issues • What I AM saying is • We are nearing the point where graduates lack CRUCIAL skills • Our disciplines are in danger of becoming ONE-DIMENSIONAL • Unless we take this seriously, others will gladly TAKE THE WORK! 28

29. Outline • Improving our methods • Inference by design • Making it count BRIEF QUESTIONS? 29

30. Outline • Are these “hard times”? • Making knowledge claims • Improving our methods • Inference by design • Making it count • Assessing and increasing impact • Concluding thoughts • “Public” social science • A professionalising agenda 30

39. Outline • Are these “hard times”? • Making knowledge claims • Improving our methods • Inference by design • Making it count • Assessing and increasing impact • Concluding thoughts • “Public” social science • A professionalising agenda 39

40. Economic and Social Research Council Shaping Society

41. Economic and Social Research Council Social Science for Schools ESRC Doctoral Training Centres

42. Organisational model for “Public Practice of Professional Social Science” Creating Knowledge COMPASS Advisory Board Engaging Communities Sharing Data Building Skills

43. New Zealand Social Statistics Network - research methods courses • Research methods courses offered since 2005 • Attended by public servants, academics, research and students • Courses are run on a not-for–profit basis • Courses range from 2 to 5 days and are held in Wellington in November each year • For more information • www.nzssn.org.nz • Contact: courses@nzssn.org.nz

44. Proposed courses for November 17th – 28th 2014, Wellington • Introduction to statistics • Qualitative research techniques • Applied computer-assisted qualitative • data analysis using Nvivo • Introduction to structural equation modelling • Introduction to survey design • Introduction to social network analysis • Fundamentals of SPSS • Introduction to program evaluation • Mixed methods in social research • Questionnaire design • Introduction to R • Q Methodology

45. “Valuing” the Social Sciences. An agenda for hard timeseSocSci Seminar Series31 October 2014 Peter Davis University of Auckland pb.davis@auckland.ac.nz and COMPASS Research Centre www.compass.auckland.ac.nz

46. A Modest Proposal!Some Principles • Accept that there is a problem - for our disciplines • Accept that our students should be methodologically “ambidextrous” • Accept that a big part of the problem is students never exercising analytical skills with real data • Look at ways in which students can be exposed to quantitative methods - without turning them off • Cooperate across disciplines and institutions 46

47. A Modest Proposal!Some Suggestions • Joint and pooled block-course teaching in quantitative (and qualitative) research methods. • Use KAREN network to pool teaching time and resources around the country in real-time contact hours. • Work together on agreed curricular content and delivery at senior undergraduate and post-graduate levels • Annual prize for best thesis using quantitative techniques. • Use quantitative studies to illustrate substantive courses. 47