NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE: REGIONAL DECISION SUPPORT (RDS)

1. CLIMATE WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION 29TH-31ST MARCH 2006 PROGRAM MANAGER: JIM LAVER NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE:REGIONAL DECISION SUPPORT (RDS)

2. NOAA CLIMATE SERVICES Changnon, Quinlan, and Rasmusson 1990 Climate Services Management Council Office of Climate Services Advisory Groups External Users Research Users NOAA Users Office of Product development Office of Data Collection National Climatic Data Center Climate Analysis (Prediction) Center Regional Climate Centers

3. NWS Climate Services(the operational view, Livezey et.al.) Interagency Climate Office NOAA Climate Office Climate Board NWS NESDIS OAR NOS NMFS NCEP OCWWS Regions NGDC NCDC NODC OGP, CDC, GFDL, Sea Grant CSC, OCRM, CWISE Matrix Link RCCs CWISE RISAs, IRI, Extension EMC CPC CSD WFOs/ RFCs Regional Manager FY 2003 Focal Points FY 2001

4. Description of Program (capabilities, requirements, end-state) - Unique role of program (within and outside NOAA) - Products/Climate Services Activities within the Program - Highlights and Successes - Role of the competitive programs Future directions for the Program Cross Program Activities - COA – CF – CPP – CE – RDS - FY07-13 under constrained budget AGENDA

5. Objective: Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making RDS: OBJECTIVE, VISION and END STATE Desired End State: A mature and efficient system for understanding and responding to a stakeholder’s need for products and services such that public and private interests in climate information is reflected in NOAA’s program; and NOAA’s products are incorporated into plans and decision making Vision: A “Climate Service” where stakeholders & users from at least six sectors publicly acknowledge the benefits of NOAA’s Environmental Decision Support products/tools – international, national, regional, local – and beg for more!

6. Overview: NOAA RDS is the element of the Climate Goal where NOAA climate data, information, and forecasts are packaged into accessible support tools for decision makers and risk managers. Such support is sustained and refined through education and outreach to optimize use of NOAA information. Requirements-Come from an array of sources including: Legislation (e.g., Nat Climate Program Act of 1978; U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990) Interagency & Commission reports (e.g., NIDIS, Ocean) Executive Branch and NOAA guidelines (e.g., CENR Grand Challenge for Disaster Reduction) Scientific oversight (e.g., NRC, NOAA SAB) Capabilities: Leverage investments made in research and transition Provide operational climate services for decision support RDS: Description

7. A NOAA Service Requirement – The Unique Role of RDS Program Outlooks Threats Assessments Time Scale Forecasts • User and stakeholder information needs do not distinguish between the weather and climate, and may not differentiate between research, knowledge, and applications • Requires a transparent seamless suite of NOAA information products and services Seamless Suite of User and Stakeholder Information Needs Alerts, Watches, Warnings Observations & Nowcasts for Cx & Wx Historical Record & Reanalyses Product Source Discover Development Proof ofConcept Experimental Operational Research Knowledge Applications

8. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1 R&D Community • Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, • Agency Labs… • Systematic transition steps for Research to Operations (R2O – • see #4) • 5. Deliver skill-optimized products, founded on innovation and user feedback, to a diverse user community 2. A smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations 4. Systematic transition steps for Operations to Applications (O2A) - NCTP or Transition Research to Applications for Climate Services (TRACS) 2 R2O 3 Operations & Applications 4 O2A Stakeholder& User Community 5

9. CPO - NOAA/OAR Climate Program Office (includes ACR, ACC, CCDD, CDEP, CO, CVP, CPPA, GCC, CASD, NIDIS) CASD - CPO Climate Assessments and Services Division (includes RISAs, SARP, NCTP, RANET, COFA Projects) NIDIS - CPO National Integrated Drought Information System RISAs - Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments SARP - Sector Applications Research Program NCTP - NOAA Climate Transition Program RANET - RAdio & InterNET for the Communication of Hydro- Meteorological and Climate Related Information COFA - Climate Outlook Forums and Applications Projects ESRL - Earth Systems Research Lab (Boulder Labs) OCWWS - NWS Office of Weather, Water, and Climate Services Acronyms & Org. Refresher

10. RISAs - Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments SARP - Sector Applications Research Program NIDIS - National Integrated Drought Information System INT’L - Partners/Projects: IRI, RANET, COFA, African Desk,… NCTP - NOAA Climate Transition Program NWS - Regional, Weather, and River Forecast Offices RCCs - NESDIS Regional Climate Centers SCs - AASC Recognized State Climate Offices (ARSCOs) NWS/CSD - NWS/OCWWS Climate Services Division CTB/CPC - NOAA Climate Test Bed; NCEP/Climate Prediction Center ESRL/PSD - Physical Sciences Division (previously CDC) RDS: Activities and Partnerships

11. Climate Service “Partnerships” This is the “deck” – how will we “play the hand” X-year Vision: A fully integrated and mature network? CDEP CTB, CPC RISAs SARP, NCTP, CPPA, CVP, CCDD, Obs., Arctic NWS Regional NOAAs Climate Service RCCs SCs Federal agencies(e.g., USDA, DOI, USACE, EPA, NIH/CDC) State agencies (e.g., CEC, AZ water) NWS Local

12. Regional Decision Support:Research <---> Operations/Applications

13. Regional Decision Support:Research <---> Operations/Applications NCDC Regional Climate Centers

14. Regional Decision Support:Research <---> Operations/Applications NWS River Forecast Centers

15. Regional Decision Support:Research <---> Operations/Applications NWS Regional HQ Forecast Offices

16. Regional Decision Support:Research <---> Operations/Applications American Association of State Climatologists

17. Program Activities and Successes

18. Climate Program Element 5: Regional Decision Support Research Transition Delivery RISAs/Univ.NCTP Regional: RCCs, NWS HQs State: ARSCOs Local: NWS Offices CDEP/Univ.CTBsame as above, Web… Cores New support in 06 Limited Support No current support Regional and Local Climate Services: Developing an Infrastructure

19. NOAA currently supports 8 RISA teams across the U.S. to analyze how climate impacts key sectors within a region and how climate information could help resource management & planning in the region. RISA teams include researchers from the physical, natural, engineering and social sciences who partner with stakeholders in a region to determine how climate impacts key resources and how climate information could aid in stakeholders’ decision making. Example topics covered by the RISA program include: Agriculture Wildland Fire Water Resources Drought Planning Fisheries Public Health Topics depend on regional interests. RISA: Description

20. How do RISAs engageStakeholders and End Users? Conferences/Workshops Task Forces/Committees Websites/Newsletters Climate Extension Agents

21. RISA: Requires a Broad Range of Capabilities White Papers Climate- forest fire- economic research Integrated climate- fisheries modeling Small Meetings Newsletters County Executives; Governors’ Offices; Extension Agents Example Users State & Local Water/Forestry/ Fisheries Managers User Conferences Climate- hydrology-water management modeling Urban & regional planning analysis Seasonal Outlook Meetings Website Tools Socioeconomic impacts, responses, & planning Climate- crop economic modeling Surveys & Studies Vulnerability Analysis Institutional analysis Collaborative Projects Drought Task Forces

22. RISA Successes in Engaging Stakeholders and End Users King County, Washington State Climate Impacts Conference Arizona Media Climate Workshop Annual Series of Climate Fire Assessment Workshops AgClimate.org (web-based decision tool for Southeastern agricultural communities) California Energy Commission Climate Conference: Report to Governor

23. History: Established in FY 2006. Builds on a long-term NOAA investment in human dimensions research and pilot applications projects through the Human Dimensions of Global Change Research; the Environment, Science and Development; and the Climate Variability and Human Health Programs Objective: Build stronger socio-economic sectors through the enhanced use and understanding of climate information and technology NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) Regional Decision Support: Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP)

24. SARP: Description • Sector-specific projects are a suite of activities: • Competitive funding opportunities • Stakeholder dialogues • User needs assessment • Partnership development • In FY06-07 the primary sector projects are: • Water • Coastal Resource Management • Additional sector projects being explored: • Human health • Agriculture • Urban development

25. Program focus: SARP provides the Climate Program with a framework to develop knowledge and relationships that will help advance the use of NOAA climate services in priority sectors. It builds linkages with NOAA and other mission agencies to help foster the use of climate information in resource management. The program focuses on: Catalyzing and supporting applications research and partnership activities that enhance resource management in key socio-economic sectors in the face of climate change and variability Systematically building an interdisciplinary and applicable knowledge base and mechanism for the creation, dissemination, and exchange of climate-related research findings critical for understanding and addressing resource management challenges SARP: Description

26. SARP: Capabilities • Harness intellectual capability of university & federal research community through a competitive funding announcement • Develop partnerships with user groups (including within NOAA) • Identify research needs of users and catalyze efforts • Evaluate findings and share with scientists and policy makers • Provide linkages with decision makers to increase scientist and policy maker understanding of requirements of stakeholders • Identify/reduce vulnerability through improved knowledge of climate impact on society and better use of climate information • Enhance society’s ability (and scientists’ understanding of this ability) to plan for and adapt to future uncertainties • Expand participatory education and outreach activities

27. Published papers and studies Add new sector and partnerships (e.g., USDA, Army Corps of Engineers, Coral Program) Consult with NAS to advise SARP on: Role in regards to decision support and improving understanding of the human dimensions of climate variability and change as experienced in key sectors Best approaches to meet program goals (e.g., grants, series of workshops, etc.) Strategy to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of the program Future plans Work within NOAA on Hazard Resilient Communities? Potential addition of Health, Urban, Ag/Food Sectors SARP: Performance Measures, Milestones, Future Plans

28. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) “Creating a National Drought Early Warning System” • Goal:To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts. • The Western Governors’ Association developed the 2004 report in close partnership with NOAA. Many others contributed. • Recent advances in understanding and predicting droughts makes the NIDIS Goal feasible. More must be done to provide a fully useful drought decision-support system. www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf

29. NIDIS Framework for Enhanced Decision Support Customer defined measures of drought Research Monitoring Prediction Integrating Tools Better informed decision making at state, local and individual levels ImpactMitigation ImprovedResponses ProactivePlanning

30. Key NIDIS Components • Improving and Integrating Observations & Data Systems • Developing New Tools for Analysis & Decision Support • Coordinating Research and Science • Improving Information Dissemination and Feedback

31. International Projects & Activities Training Desks & new Requests (Africa, Asia, India) RANET Climate Outlook Forums Pilot Projects Event Response and Special Projects Requested reports to Congress (e.g., Wolf, VA) Bi-Lateral activities RDS International

32. Provide training opportunities to international partners Engage in technology exchange and basic infrastructure development, which improves production and application of international climate, weather, and water services Conduct pilot climate service activities to enhance U.S. knowledge and provide advancements to overseas partners by working with decision makers to develop hazard resilient communities, sector applications in agriculture, health, water, etc. Help ensure climate, weather, and water services are available to inter-agency partners with international interests Develop international partnerships and generate deliverables used by the U.S. in bi-laterals and ministerial/multi-lateral conferences. Regional Decision SupportInternational Activities

33. Africa Desk - Provides training to scientists from African countries on core techniques and generation of information products. Provides information support to inter-agency partners, such as USAID. Climate Outlook Forums - Generates seasonal climate outlooks in sub-regions, such as Greater Horn of Africa. Forum process brings together forecasts and sector specialists from numerous countries to improve application of seasonal information for disaster reduction, water management, health, agriculture, etc. RANET - Develops communication networks to support rural dissemination and application of climate, weather, and water services. Provides training to international partners (NMHSs, NGOs, and Donor Agencies). Maintains and develops unique communication platforms. Serves as deliverable in bi-laterals and highlighted by U.S. in international forums as WSSD, ISDR WSDR, etc. RDS International - Examples

34. Emergency/relief agencies used seasonal forecasts to prepare disaster response plans, e.g., UN World Food Program, Sudan 2001-2002 Weekly African Hazards Assessment product for USAID Prediction of monsoon rain pattern during ongoing Darfur crisis Continuing weather/climate support to Afghanistan and southern Asia to assist in humanitarian efforts Allocation of resources for proactive climate risk management based on forecasts, e.g., 2005-2006 droughts in Eastern Africa Development of prototype climate products, e.g., malaria and hydro-power prediction models in Eastern Africa Pilot Projects – test/demonstrate application of climate, weather, and water services in sectors: e.g., agricultural forecasts, malaria warning Event Response and Special Projects - ENSO, Mozambique floods RDS International – More Examples

35. Training: Core Group with sufficient “global” capacity RANET: Sufficient & stable capacity Climate Outlooks: Multi-model ensemble, global; IRI role? Pilot Projects: Capacity, multi-discipline, ecosystems Event Response, Special Projects: World-wide, frequency Operational Wx/Cx experts for routine briefings, awareness:We do it now, we need more capacity and proficiency This is a 1.5M-2M problem – USAID should provide most of it? RDS International: Future Requirements and End-State:

36. CURRENT MISSION: To transition experimentally mature climate tools and methods from research mode into settings where they may be applied, in an operational and sustained manner to deliver useful climate information products and services, seeking not only to execute the transitions but also to, learn from doing how better to accomplish the technology transition process forpublic goods. NEW CONTEXT: NOAA CLIMATE TRANSITION PROGRAM (NCTP)(+1-5 yrs) • CHANGE TO TRACS: TRANSITION RESEARCH TO APPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE SERVICES • - Focus on Transition Partnership Projects

37. Decision- makers Extension Problem Identification Education/ Outreach Prototype Development Transfer to Operations Research Operations NCTP/TRACS Unit Model

38. Climate time scale tools - climate-weather decisions Defined partnership unit (at least 2 parties): decision maker, researcher, operations and extension components Matching participant contributions Formal agreement(s) among participants Project management description - defined outcomes and benefits Duration not to exceed 5 years Benefits analysis (rigorous valuation of socio-economic, ecosystem, or other measurable) Post-audit evaluation - sustainable transition? 2010: 10 NEW/Completed projects/year (30 in progress/year) 2015: 20 NEW/Completed projects/year (60 in progress/year) NCTP/TRACS: Transition Project Performance Criteria

39. Designed to accommodate four kinds of Transition Partnership Projects, bridging “the last 100 yards” 1) Within NOAA 2) From partners to NOAA 3) From NOAA to partners 4) Among NOAA partners (NOAA funds) (2005 Funded: 3 Transitions from Universities to Regional Climate Centers; 1 from University to Navy) NCTP/TRACS TRANSITION PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS:

40. Coordinate funding with RISA & SARP: Define NCTP competition by REGIONS & SECTORS (+AGM priorities: NIDIS, drought) Fund ONLY “mature” transition projects - not research & development process (tools from RISA & SARP) Operations partnershould write½ of proposals to keep focus on applications Ensure rigorous benefits evaluation Ensure post-hoc evaluation of sustainability of transitions Create robust and flexible contracting mechanism in addition to competitive grants for transition projects NOAA wants near-term OTHER Suggestions: Joint funding with CPPA, NWS-Hydrology, private sector PI Workshop Create Advisory Body– made up of “Unit” members Generate publications for NEW AMS Journal of Service Climatology NCTP/TRACS: FY 2006 Transition Projects Review Panel Recommendations:Near-term Priorities

41. THREE EMPHASES FOR GRANT COMPETITIONS EMERGED: 1) “UPSTREAM” to National level (to NOAA): tools that benefit the community nationally & internationally (favored): derives more value from the science because the tool is multiplied across many users nationwide - more “bang” for $ But will have more diffuse benefits that are harder to measure NOAA should pay 2) “DOWNSTREAM” to Regional/Local level: tools that benefit users in project—Nation only as scalable or transferable: harder to judge overall value because more focused on increased benefits for particular region/sector/user But will derive better specific feedback from the users about the value of the science users should pay 3) Broader CLIMATE SERVICES DEVELOPMENT activities NCTP/TRACS: FY06 Transition Projects Review Panel Recommendations

42. Title: A Distributed Interactive Access and Resource Interface for Fine Scale Climate Data Partners: University of Arizona to Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) End-User: Land and resource managers and planners FY 2005 NCTP Grants

43. NWS RFOs, RFCs, WFOs; CSD Local, regional, and national customer service and support Data and product delivery Training of field and regional personnel (web training open to the public) Data quality control and quality assurance Stewards of the U.S. climate observing system NESDIS/NCDC Regional Climate Centers Data services and support for operational NOAA products Regional customer service Applied climate and data research Data quality control and quality assurance American Association of State Climatologists State-level customer support for data and services RDS: Operations & Applications – If/When NOAA Continues Delivery

44. Outcomes: The climate-literate public and decision-making community effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their regular operations. The nation’s principal climate sensitive resource challenges and opportunities are identified Regional and local decision makers have access to climate information, products, and support staff required to enhance public and private sector performance Products and Services Delivered Local climate forecast products Local and regional climate information and data Education and outreach materials Expert climate assessments, summaries, and reports Coordination & consistent messages RDS: Operations & Applications - If/When NOAA Continues Delivery

45. NWSRFOs, RFCs, WFOs; CSD Recover funding levels to support product and services delivery, and better integrate with the regional research community Enhance support to allow expansion of training (e.g. for drought), for operational customer support for NIDIS, and ability to handle new NCTP/TRACS-induced workload NESDIS/NCDC Regional Climate Centers Move from earmark (>20 years) to NOAA budget line (~$3M) Enhance support for NIDIS product integration and delivery Expand RCC program into Alaska and the Pacific through satellite offices American Association of State Climatologists Matching grant program for ARSCOs to provide state-level customer support for data and services related to NIDIS and climate RDS Operations: Prioritized Activities

46. NOAA Performance Objective Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making GPRA/Performance Measure for RDS: Applies to Research only, although target also met by RCCs Milestones Implement Local 3-Month Climate Forecasts at 1000 stations Conduct the fourth annual Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop (AZ, Mar 2006) Implement NOWData access through all WFOs (joint with NWS/NESDIS/RCC) 4. Offer fourth operational climate services residence training RDS Operations: Performance Measures/Milestones

47. NWS Common climate web presence across NWS Release of NOWData Experimental release - local climate forecasts NESDIS/NCDC Regional Climate Centers Operational implementation of Applied Climate Information System and development of customized data portals Improved synchronization of data sources/quality within NOAA Prolific research enterprise – 34 pubs from 6 centers in 2005 American Association of State Climatologists NWS and NCDC serve on executive council of AASC NOAA-led effort to expand membership from 30 to >40 RDS Operations: Highlights & Past Successes

48. RDS Operations: Impact of FY05/06 Budget • Delayed implementation Downscaled temperature forecasts one year, verification for longer • Delayed development of ENSO composites forecasts • Lost contractors and contractor time • Lost operational support for ACIS to NWS field office and web (NOWData)

49. Regional Decision Support and theNOAA Climate Test Bed Vision: To significantly increase thenumberandskillof NOAA’s operational climate forecast products. This involves accelerating improvements in the fully coupled NOAA Climate Forecast System and other Earth system models within the framework of a multi-model ensemble system. It also involves working with the applications community to provide new and improved climate forecast products that enhance decision making. Mission:To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

50. Climate Test Bed: Description Current Projects By Programmatic Theme • NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Improvements: • Ocean Component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (PI: McPhaden, PMEL) • Improvement of the GODAS at NCEP (PI’s: Xue and Behringer, NCEP) • Using Initial Tendency Errors to Reduce Systematic Errors (PI: Delsole, COLA) • Development of Neural Network Emulations of Model Physics for CFS (PI: M. Fox-Rabinovitz, UMD) • NCEP Component of the NOAA Core Project for GAPP (PI: K. Mitchell, NCEP) • The NAME Climate Process Team (PI: J. Schemm, NCEP) • Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System: • Infrastructure for Multi-model Ensembles at the NOAA CTB (PI’s: Leetmaa, GFDL; Lord, NCEP) • Climate Reanalysis – An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System: • Regional Climate Data Assimilation System (R-CDAS) / NAME Data Impact (PI: K. Mo, NCEP) • Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support: • Consolidation of Multi method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC (PI: van den Dool, NCEP) • A Drought Monitoring and Early Warning System for the United States (PI: K. Mo, NCEP)