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Architecture for Increasing Space Markets. Daniel Hettema Scott Neal Anh Quach Robert Taylor. Agenda. Context Stakeholders Problem & Need Statements Architecture Requirements Objective & Proposed Solution Design Process Simulation Transitional Architecture Plan Conclusion Management.

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architecture for increasing space markets

Architecture for IncreasingSpace Markets

Daniel Hettema

Scott Neal

AnhQuach

Robert Taylor

agenda
Agenda
  • Context
  • Stakeholders
  • Problem & Need Statements
  • Architecture Requirements
  • Objective & Proposed Solution
  • Design Process
  • Simulation
  • Transitional Architecture Plan
  • Conclusion
  • Management
context1
Context
  • Space has resources that could be used on Earth, or in space to develop a space market
  • Capabilities and/or technologies for taking advantage of those resources do not currently exist
  • Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, capabilities and/or technologies can be developed to expand the market
slide5

“Stepping Stones”

Unmanned Probe to Alpha Centauri

Near Earth Colonies

Resulting Commercial Products

  • Being search for new habitable planets
  • Test long-range propulsion technologies

Near- Earth Asteroid Mining and Manufacturing

Resulting Commercial Productions

  • New Living space
  • New ways to improve environment on Earth

Space Power Generation & Asteroid Defense

Resulting Commercial Products

  • New Materials
  • New, low-temp, low-pressure manufacturing techniques

Direct Products

  • Minerals
  • Energy

Hotel , Space Tourism & Garbage Collection

Potential Indirect Products/Results

  • Improved protection for Earth from Space artifacts
  • Enhance international cooperation

New Enabling Technologies

  • Improved Propulsion
  • Improved life support
potential for roi in space
Potential for ROI in Space

Space Market

Potential plan

2x

Gap

1x

ROI

-1x

Current plan

-2x

Time

“Obtaining economic benefits from commercial space, including tourism and space solar power…should be the major thrust of our space enterprise.”

-SSI Director Dr. Lee Valentine (2002)

current market
Current Market
  • Big Players
    • Tourism
    • Government
    • Private Industry
  • Resources
    • Solar
    • Moon
    • Asteroids
  • Limitations
    • Launch Costs
    • Funding
    • Public Interest
tourism market
Tourism Market
  • $758.7B [US] (EITT, 2010)
  • Current plans
    • Virgin Galactic
      • Current space trips: Starting at $200k
        • 6 minutes at 68 miles above Earth’s surface
        • Speeds up to 2500 MPH (Virgin, 2011)
    • Bigelow Aerospace
      • Invested $180M, will invest up to $.5B
      • Expandable Space Habitat designs and prototypes (Bigelow, 2011)

8

governments
Governments
  • Funding
    • Steve Anderson, Brigadier General (Ret.)
      • US spends $20B air-conditioning tents and temporary structures in Iraq
      • NASA annual budget is $18.7B (Opam, 2011)
    • $71B spent over 50 countries on space programs in 2010
      • China: $1.3B
      • Russia: $3.8B
      • India: $1.25B

(EARSC, 2011)

private industry
Private Industry
  • SpaceX
    • Projected to obtain $1k/lb launch cost goal
      • Should be maintained if 4 launches annually
    • Announced April 2011
      • First projected launch in 2013
    • Payload of 53,000 kg (116,845 lb)
    • Classification
      • Super Heavy (≥50,000 kg)

(SpaceX, 2011)

limitation
Limitation
  • Launch costs
    • Need for a lower cost per pound index
  • Government Funding
    • Not enough funding by governments
      • Budgets too small or non-existent
  • Laws
    • Moon treaty
      • Bans any state from claiming sovereignty over any territory of celestial bodies. Not ratified by US or other space capable countries.
potential market resources
Potential Market Resources
  • Space Conditions:
    • Vacuum
    • Low gravity
    • Temperature extremes
  • Resources in space:
    • Solar power
    • Minerals
resources in s pace energy
Resources In Space: Energy
  • $370 B [US] (USCB,2011)
  • Space Based Solar Power:
      • Geostationary SBSP receives nearly continuous sunlight 99% of operational time
    • If launch costs of $200/lb could be attained, energy could be sold at as low as 8¢/kWh (NSSO, 2007)
      • Natural Gas: approx. 3.9-4.4¢/kWh
      • Coal: approx. 4.8-5.5¢/kWh
      • Nuclear: approx. 11.1-14.5¢/kWh

(PES,2011)

resources in s pace sbsp
Resources In Space: SBSP

High solar energy reception (>3x)

Transmission Efficiency to Earth: 80-90% (1122-1260 Watts/m2)

(NSSO, 2007)

resources in s pace minerals
Resources In Space: Minerals
    • Moon
      • Oxygen, silicon, iron, nitrogen, magnesium, aluminum, and calcium (Brian, 2010)
    • Asteroids
      • > 832 – 1km in NEO (NASA, 2011)
      • Composition
      • Iridium, osmium, platinum, helium, copper
      • Nickel, iron, gold, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen
      • Potassium, phosphorus
  • What minerals needed for life?
    • Water, oxygen (human life)
    • Nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus (plant life)
resource values on earth
Resource Values on Earth

Current market value per ounce:

  • Gold -$1642
  • Platinum -$1519
  • Rhodium - $1625
  • Iridium - $1085
  • Palladium - $605

(Matthey, 2011)

minerals vs time
Minerals Vs Time

(Matthey, 2011)

potential for roi in space1
Potential for ROI in Space

Space Market

Potential plan

2x

Gap

1x

ROI

-1x

Current plan

-2x

Time

major and minor stakeholders
Major and MinorStakeholders
  • Major stakeholders
    • Governments
    • Insurance
    • Mining & Manufacturing
    • Tourism
    • Earth’s Population
    • Energy
  • Minor stakeholders
    • Robotics
    • Launch
    • Command & Control
    • Agriculture
    • Telecommunication
slide23

Current Stakeholder Diagram

Gap: Limited Market

slide25

Current Stakeholder Diagram

Tension:

No collaboration

between

Industries

stakeholder objectives
Stakeholder Objectives
  • Government’s Objective
    • Expand domain, boost economy, protect the people
      • Planetary Defense
      • Protect against misuse of space
  • Insurance’s Objective
    • Lower risk in space
      • Satellites
stakeholder objectives cont d
Stakeholder Objectives (cont’d)
  • Mining Objective
    • Sustainable space-based mining
  • Manufacturing Objective
    • Establish permanent manufacturing facilities in space
  • Tourism Objective
    • sustainable space-based tourism economy
stakeholder objectives cont d1
Stakeholder Objectives (cont’d)
  • Earth’s Population’s Objective
    • Better life
      • More resources = More products
      • Potential new techniques in space
  • Energy Objective
    • Provide energy to Earth & space at minimal detriment to the environment
minor stakeholders
Minor Stakeholders
  • Robotics
    • Autonomy
  • Telecommunication
    • Tele-autonomy, Communication
  • Launch
    • Launch sites
  • Command & Control
    • Administrative
  • Agriculture
    • Food production in space
  • Entertainment
    • Inspiration, publicity
problem statement
Problem Statement

There are potentially large markets that can utilize the resources and benefits of space. However, the capabilities to utilize those resources do not cost effectively exist in current markets. Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, the architecture will show the order for the development of capabilities to attain resource utilization in space.

need statement
Need Statement

Currently, the required investment needed to capture space resources is too high. A high-level architecture that shows how through an incremental “stepping stone” approach the total investment could be lowered, as industry collaboration is increased. The architecture will provide a road map for industry investments with a minimum of 1.5x return on investment from a total investment of less than one trillion dollars annually.

requirements
Requirements

The architecture shall:

  • show the overall investment from industries is less than one trillion dollars annually.
  • be designed such that no individual stakeholder will invest more than 10% of overall investment.
  • produce a plan that generates an ROI of at least 150% for all stakeholders over 5 years.
  • be limited to three levels of functional decomposition.
  • produce a plan for investment into capabilities defined as necessary for a space market.
proposed solution
Proposed Solution

Design a high-level transitional architecture that shows how industry collaboration can be used to further develop capabilities for space development. The design will show through a sequence of stepping stones how investment in capabilities could be leveraged from the current market position.

objective of project
Objective of Project
  • Thesis:
    • Corporation can make money in space
    • Without mining & manufacturing the required investment from other industries is larger
  • Generate an ROI calculator
    • Allows industries to input their data
  • Included in SPEC Innovations proposal for DARPA’s 100 Year Starship
    • GMU Space ROI and Architecture:

“Identifies potential for return on investment for space to attract commercial and public support”

model context
Model Context

NEAR TERM…………..

NOW

LONG TERM

As - Is

Transition

To - Be

What you have

How you move from now to then

Your Vision

-From SPEC Innovations

as is conceptual model
As-Is Conceptual Model
  • Very Limited Functionality
  • Restricted by:
    • Investment
    • Laws
    • Launch capabilities
    • Technology development
  • Well known
to be conceptual model
To-Be Conceptual Model
  • Contains key functionality for developed space
  • Allows industry's “assets” to perform together
  • Illustrates collaborative efforts between industries
operational scenarios process
Operational Scenarios: Process
  • Construct 7 scenarios for developing space
  • Range from easy to complex
  • Each scenario builds functionally on the previous scenario
operational scenarios
Operational Scenarios
  • Moon Round-trip
  • Debris Collection
  • Space Based Solar Power
  • Lunar Hotel from Earth
  • Solar Flare at Lunar Hotel
  • Space Mining
  • Lunar Hotel with Space Materials
scenario 1
Scenario 1
  • Launch from Earth
  • Establish course to Moon
  • Traverse to Moon
  • Enter Moon orbit
  • Maintain Moon orbit
  • Leave Moon orbit
  • Establish course to Earth
  • Traverse to Earth
  • Land on Earth
  • Service vehicle
enhanced function flow block diagram effbd
Enhanced Function Flow Block Diagram (EFFBD)

Loop Exit

Loop

Exit Condition

Trigger

Output

Input

Parallel Branches

Function

scenario 1 elements
Scenario 1 Elements
  • Assets:
    • Earth, Moon, space ship
  • Resource:
    • Space ship fuel (consumed)
  • Potential Costs:
    • Fuel consumption, function based on duration
integrated behavior model
Integrated Behavior Model
  • Abstracted functionally from all scenarios
  • Validated by scenarios
  • Identifies:
    • Necessary functions
    • “Generic” assets
  • Will be in a “steady state”
  • Foundation for ROI calculator
simulation1
Simulation
  • Using Vitech CORE Sim
    • Built-in to CORE
    • Includes COREScript
  • Modify element’s parameters
    • Duration, Cost, Amounts

Schedule Cost Performance

simulation purpose
Simulation Purpose
  • Aids in validating functional model
  • Shows logical loops, resource manipulation
  • Shows element attribute manipulation’s effect on whole system
    • Reducing the cost of an asset
    • Decreasing communications delay
  • Design of Transitional Architecture is dictated by simulation
simulation of scenario 1
Simulation of Scenario 1
  • Video of scenario 1 simulation
design of experiment
Design of Experiment
  • Perform a Functionality Gap Analysis
  • Produce the Integrated Behavioral Model
  • Use Integrated Behavioral Model to create the ROI calculator
  • Use ROI calculator to produce architecture design plans for maximizing ROI
functionality gap analysis
Functionality Gap Analysis
  • Identifies functions from completed “To-Be” model that are:
    • Underdeveloped in “As-Is”
    • Nonexistent in “As-Is”
  • Identifies limitations from “As-Is” that need to be overcome
  • Identifies necessary future capabilities/technologies
an roi calculator
An ROI Calculator
  • If an industry was to invest some value at this time, the investment will show an ROI %
  • Based on:
    • Element attributes
    • Estimated functionality costs
  • Compare full lifecycle costs on Earth to those in space
notional roi equations
Notional ROI Equations
  • ROI = Revenue – Investment

-

investment plan
Investment Plan
  • Gantt Chart showing the sequence of capabilities/technologies for development
  • Identifies critical capabilities/technologies for each of the “stepping stones”
  • Focus on having sustainability at each level
investment plan alternatives
Investment Plan: Alternatives
  • The ROI calculator will produce alternative outputs
  • Outputs will vary due to
    • Adjustments in investments from industries
    • Adjusted time constraints
    • Breakthroughs in capabilities or technology
    • not developing a capability or technology
value hierarchy
Value Hierarchy

Value

Hierarchy

Government

.16

Tourism

.16

Earth’s Population

.1

Insurance

.17

Mining & Manufacturing

.25

Energy

.16

value hierarchy1
Value Hierarchy

Mining & Manufacturing

.25

Environment

Sustainability

Profitability

Earth’s Population

.1

Security

Quality of Life

Environment

summary
Summary
  • Create a high-level architecture that will bridge the gap between today’s current market plan (little to no ROI) and a future potential plan (significantly higher ROI with limited risk involved)
  • Provides an investment plan for the functionality of a space market
  • Eases tension between industries by promoting collaboration
implementation
Implementation

Space Market

Potential plan

  • Utilizing the transitional architecture will close the gap

Generated market plan

ROI

Time

Current plan

continuing work
Continuing Work
  • Create functional models of scenarios
  • Validate Integrated Behavior Model
  • Perform functional gap analysis
  • Identify necessary technologies
  • Develop the ROI calculator
  • Test project thesis
  • Present Recommendations
management1
Management
  • Architecture Development Process
  • Project Risks
  • Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
  • Project Budget
  • Project Schedule
    • Critical Path
architecture development process

Requirements Analysis

1. Capture and Analyze Related Artifacts

Functional Analysis

2. Identify Assumptions

Synthesis

5. Develop the Operational Context Diagram

6. Develop Operational Scenarios

System Analysis and Control

7. Derive Functional Behavior

8. Derive Assets

4. Capture Constraints

10. Prepare Interface Diagrams

3. Identify Existing/Planned Systems

12. Perform Dynamic Analysis

11. Define Resources, Error Detection & Recovery

13. Develop Operational Demonstration Master Plan

15. Conduct Trade-off Analyses

16. Generate Operational and System Architecture Graphics, Briefings and Reports

Architecture Development Process

9. Allocate Actions to Assets

14. Provide Options

time

Provided by: SPEC Innovations

71

project risk
Project Risk

Mitigation Plan

  • Increase complexity of Scenarios
  • Meet with SME
  • Add level of depth to Integrated Behavior Model

Risk

Validation of Integrated Behavior Model

Incomplete Gap Analysis

budget
Budget

13.5 hrper person per week, 54 hr per week