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Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development. www.RCLCo.com. Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development. Changing Household Types Growth in non-traditional-family households Changing face of renters and owners Impact of Immigration When, where and how immigrants live

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demographic changes driving new residential development1
Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development
  • Changing Household Types
    • Growth in non-traditional-family households
    • Changing face of renters and owners
  • Impact of Immigration
    • When, where and how immigrants live
  • Impact of Race/Ethnicity
  • Implications for Different Housing Types
  • Relationship to Employment Patterns
changing household types1
Changing Household Types
  • The growth is in non-traditional-family households
    • Singles
    • Unmarried couples or childless couples
    • Roommates
    • Single parents
  • Non-traditional-family households
    • Willing to pioneer new areas
    • Less concerned about school districts
    • Looking to balance price and lifestyle
  • Married renters and single buyers

Source: US Census, Brookings Institution

changing household types2
Changing Household Types
  • DC a national leader in non-married-couple households
    • DC - 77%, vs. 64% for 100 Largest US Cities
    • DC MSA - 50%, vs. 48% National Average
    • DC – 8% of households married with kid(s) – vs. 23.5% in US
    • In 1990s, married households flocked to suburbs
  • Lifestyle drives housing location decisions
    • Look for where they can live, work & play – all in one place
    • Active communities – “3rd Places” for informal gathering
changing household types3
Changing Household Types
  • What does that mean?
    • Product configuration changes
      • Less need for 3rd or 4th bedrooms
      • Creative living spaces
      • More architecture, less “sameness”
    • Location change
      • Unconcerned with conventions and traditions
      • Heretofore unacceptable locations
      • Single females prefer established locations
      • Couples & single men will take more risk for the $
household types owners
Household Types | Owners
  • Over 110,000 new owner HH will be added (~22,000/year)
  • Largest % growth in Singles and Childless Couples
  • Married w/ children growing slower than other groups
  • Source: US Census, Claritas
  • The Brookings Institution

Growth%

1.4%

2.1%

1.6%

1.5%

1.1%

2.5%

household types renters
Household Types | Renters

~21,000 new renters –(~4,200/yr)

Singles drive the rental market

However…

Married Couples without children ~13% of renter growth

Female HH Heads ~11% of renter growth

Source: US Census, Claritas

Growth%

0.4%

1.5%

0.7%

1.0%

-0.1%

1.2%

owners
Owners
  • What does that mean – for-sale?
    • GenXers flooding the market – singles, couples without children
    • Designs for non-kid or young-kid households
    • Married w/children growing slower than other groups
renters
Renters
  • What does that mean - rentals?
    • Need to design for both singles and couples
    • “Renters by choice” aren’t a myth (20% 50K+ incomes) – they seek quality, mobility, and convenience – but affordability key for many
    • GenX not having children yet – some rent for a while
    • Echo Boomers – tomorrow’s renter (after 2008)
      • Many doubling up & living with parents
summary demographic changes driving new residential development
Summary: Demographic Changes Driving New Residential Development
  • Maturing Boomers:
    • Luxury homes/condos and some rentals
    • More affluent demand top-flight amenities and services
  • GenX not having children yet, but soon
    • Moving into ownership
  • Echo Boom generation:
    • Tomorrow’s renter--after 2008
    • Less affluent than GenX, doubling up, living with parents
impact of immigration1
Impact of Immigration

Top Ten Immigrant Populations by Metropolitan Area, 2000

  • DC region is 7th in foreign born residents, 5th in total population
  • 8th in % foreign born
  • Foreign born population grew almost 7 fold in last 30 years

Source: Brookings Institution

impact of immigration2
Impact of Immigration

New immigrants made up nearly half of the overall population growth in the region in the 1990s

Source: Brookings

impact of immigration3
Impact of Immigration
  • Immigrants choosing to settle in the inner suburbs rather than the District
    • 4% of 1990s foreign-born growth in DC
  • Absolute population growth in the 1990s equal in the inner and outer portions of region
    • 85% of inner-jurisdiction population growth foreign-born
    • 12% of outer-jurisdiction population growth foreign-born
impact of immigration4
Impact of Immigration

Impact of Immigration

2000

Total Foreign Born 832,016

1970

Total Foreign Born 127,579

Source: The Brookings Institution

impact of immigration5
Impact of Immigration

Percent Foreign Born (By Census Tract)

2000

Less than 5%

5% - 15%

16% - 25%

26% - 35%

Greater than 35%

Foreign born residents tend to concentrate near but not in the District

Source: Brookings

impact of immigration6
Impact of Immigration

Foreign-Born Median Household Income

Less than 50% of Median Income

50% - 100% of Median Income

101% - 150% of Median Income

Greater than 150% of Median Income

  • Immigrants tend to live close to DC
  • Poorer immigrants flock to DC and Prince George's County
  • Affluent immigrants move to Montgomery and Fairfax Counties

Source: Brookings

race ethnicity1
Race & Ethnicity
  • Minorities growing in the suburbs
  • Mirrors national trend
  • DC losing African- American residents
  • Suburban builders should understand needs, desires of minorities

Source: US Census, Brookings Institution

race ethnicity2
Race & Ethnicity
  • Hispanics live in north-central DC
  • Concentration in NE Prince George’s, SE Montgomery, Arlington & Fairfax counties

Source: US Census, Brookings Institution

race ethnicity3
Race & Ethnicity
  • Minorities are 32% of 1st time homebuyers (national)
  • Minorities have lower incomes & wealth
  • Lenders are correcting for prior patterns of discrimination
  • Minorities are less mobile
    • 65% of minority homeowners nationwide 65 yrs of age are still in 1st home
    • Compared with 32% for non-Hispanic white homeowners

Source: US Census, Brookings Institution, Joint Center for Housing Studies

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