Chapter Nine: Campaigning

1. Chapter Nine: Campaigning

2. Is the job of us president the most demanding in the world

3. What do you think?

4. American Presidential Campaigns • Long and grueling – many candidates run for nearly 2 years (average campaign globally is 2 months – either by law or practice). Always campaigning – running scared

5. American Presidential Campaigns • Expensive: Clinton spent 1.4 Billion and Trump 957.6 Million • Unbelievable scrutiny into your private life • Presidential candidates are risk takers and self confident

6. 9.1 Evaluate the fairness of the presidential primary and caucus system.

7. Students can explain how primaries and caucuses are different from one another and how each selects the winner during the nomination portion of the election

8. Two types of campaigns • For the parties nomination: Nomination campaigns • Between the two parties: Election campaigns

9. It’s all about the Benjamin’s • Each campaign is costly. Fortune magazine estimates that running in just the first 4 primaries and caucuses will run each candidate between 40 and 60 million dollars

10. Deciding to Run • Risk takers • Background – informal qualifications • Willing to put in the effort • Able to raise the money • Electable

11. Who’s in? Elizabeth Warren: Senior US Senator Julian Castro: US Secretary of HUD under Obama Kirsten Gillibrand: Junior US Senator TulsiGabbard: US Representative Kamala Harris: Junior US Senator Cory Booker: Junior US Senator John Delaney: US Representative

12. What about candidates that have little chance? Marianne Williamson: Oprah’s Spiritual Advisor and self –proclaimed “Bitch for God” Peter Buttigieg: Mayor of South Bend indiana

13. What about these three?

14. There are actually a lot of people considering a run

15. But to win the nomination game You need the 3 M’s

16. You are looking to win: • The nomination: or the party’s official endorsement of a candidate for office • By manipulating money, momentum and media – aka – your campaign strategy.

17. We didn’t always select the candidate’s this way • Parties sent delegates to the convention – these delegates were the party elite • The delegates nominated and voted until they agreed on who they would support

18. We didn’t always select the candidate’s this way • What did we the peopledo??? We waited…until they decided who would run. Soooooo • Could Trump or Carson or Sanders have run then?

19. So why the change? • In 1968 People showed up at the democratic convention • People who weren’t the party elite • People who weren’t delegates • They wanted a voice in choosing who got the Democratic nomination

20. What people? • Young • Women • Blacks • They weren’t allowed into the convention

21. Why weren’t they allowed to participate? • You had to be a delegate to get on the convention floor • Delegates were ALL chosen by the party bosses. • We did not vote for delegates or have primaries.

22. They didn’t like: • The Party Platform • Vietnam War • It was 1968 • Chicago broke out into a riot

23. Unruly behavior in and outside the convention hall

24. We must find a new way to include the voices we left out. The commission said Party Leaders could not pick who went to the convention – the people had to pick That way – it wouldn’t be just the elite party people (read “old white guys”) casting votes at the convention. McGovern-Fraser Commission

25. How does that work? I mean – I want to go and vote at the convention – but everyone can’t just go – that would be chaos. • Every state had to figure out who they would send and how the delegates would be picked. • Easiest thing to do – have a primary. • Another possibility – have a caucus.

26. Time for a Candy CaucusAnd then a Candy Primary Go in the hall and wait till I call you back in….

27. Still though – how does that work? • Whatever percentage of the vote you get – you send that percentage of delegates allotted to your state. • Imagine a state with 10 delegates and three candidates.

28. Still though – how does that work? • Candidate X gets 60% of the vote (6 delegates) • Candidate Y gets 20% of the vote (2 delegates) • Candidate Z gets 20% of the vote (2 delegates)

29. Every state sends delegates • As each state has it’s primaries – the press reports on the outcome and so before the convention we know who is sending the most delegates – so we know who will “win” the nomination.

30. If we know who will win – why do the losers delegates even go? • Because the platform is written at the convention • Losers delegates still get a say in what goes into the platform

31. What if nobody gets enough delegates to win? • Almost happened to Trump • Can happen if there are too many candidates still in the running, the pie is divided up into too many slices • Reverts back to the delegates voting at the convention.

32. What about the Republicans • Because STATES run elections – when the Democrats changed it up – the Republicans pretty much had to change as well because we couldn’t have 2 sets of rules

33. What about the Republicans • In some states the Republicans use the same proportional system as the Democrats. • It used to be ALL were winner take all – so if you won a primary – you won all the delegate spots. • Recently the party ruled that no contest prior to April could be winner take all.

34. So this has been going on since the 70’s? • Pretty much – there were some states that already had primaries – cause states are what? • It’s considered the biggest change to our electoral system EVER.

35. There have been some changes • Biggest change is adding in “superdelegates” • After the big change the Dems said that the people in the know (the party elite) should still have some say in who gets the nomination.

36. what the heck is a Superdelegate? • About 14 – 15% of all the delegates going to the Democratic Convention are delegates that have a powerful position in politics already like governors, senators and members of the HOR. So Gretchen Whitmer will be a superdelegate • They are “unpledged” and can vote for whomever they like. In a tight race they could decide the nominee.

37. Do Republicans have superdelegates • About 8% of the Republican delegates are superdelegates. • They aren’t automatic and there are fewer of them but yes – yes they do

38. The invisible primary • Who is winning supporters • Money • Endorsements • Superdelgate commitments • Who is making gaffes they cannot recover from?

39. The nomination race is: • Process controlled mostly by party rules • For primaries – some state laws have an impact • Presidential caucus • Presidential primary

40. Presidential Caucus States • Iowa 1st • Nevada next • Lower participation (under 15%) • Party run • No secret ballot

41. Presidential Primary States • New Hampshire is 1st • South Carolina is next

42. Frontloading Frontloading Super Tuesday: 1st Tuesday in March

43. Getting the big MO • Momentum means money • Getting more of it than your opponent • Debate performance can give you momentum • The convention tends to bump your momentum for the general election • Bad press can turn your momentum around the other direction

44. Evaluating our presidential nomination process –– What are the problem areas? • Disproportionate attention goes to the early caucuses and primaries • Prominent politicians find it difficult to take time out from their duties to run • Money plays too big a role in the caucuses and primaries • Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative • The system gives too much power to the media

45. National Convention Mania Coverage of conventions has gone down since primaries/caucuses now pre-determine who the candidates will be. But back in the day….

47. Key Note Address – Obama 2004 sets up his run for the presidency • RNC in 2016 – NO KEYNOTE – because Republicans were not big fans of The Donald • DNC – Elizabeth Warren

48. Party Platform: The statement of the goals and policies for the next 4 years • Straw man written before the convention • If 20% of convention disagree – plank can be replaced • Don’t want disagreements on TV • Work it out behind the scenes

49. To the Hershey Convention • 2nd Hour (15) ? Kit Kat • ? Reese’s • 3rd Hour (16) 6 Kit Kat • 1 Reese’s • 4th Hour (25) 9 Reese’s • 4 Kit Kat • 5th Hour (21) 9 Kit Kat • 3 Reese’s • Caucus (21) 31 Kit Kat • 24 Reese’s • Harteland (20) 6 Reese’s • 5 Kit Kat • 2 Kisses • Totals: 55 Kit Kat • 43 Reese’s • 2 Kisses • Superdelegates (9 for Hershey)

50. To the Mars Convention • 2nd Hour (15) ? Starburst • ? Twix • 3rd Hour (16) 4 Starburst • 3 Twix • 4th Hour (25) 8 Twix • 1 Milky Way • 5th Hour (21) 3 Twix • 2 Starburst • 1 Milky Way • Caucus (21) 29 Twix • 15 M & M’s • 6 Starburst • 5 Milky Way • Harteland (20) 5 Twix • 3 M & M’s • 2 Milky Way • Totals: 45 Twix • 18 M & M’s • 12 Starburst • 8 Milky Way • Superdelegates (17 for Mars)