Progress Report of JMA Chiashi Muroi, JMA 18-22 Oct. 2010, Tokyo WGNE-26
Contents • Outline of our NWP system • Recent changes and developments • Install plan of next supercomputer and model upgrade plan (since Mar. 2012) • Very short range Forecasting of Precipitation ( from Dr. Kato)
Local Forecast Model (LFM)- Trial Run will be started from Nov. 2010 - Objectives : Disaster prevention / Aviation forecast Resolution : 2km Forecast Domain : 1600kmx1100km Initial time : 3 hourly ( 8/day ) Forecast Period : 9 hour 3-ice microphysics scheme (Cumulus parameterization is not used) Centre region 1600x1100km2
18 21 22 23 00 03 06 09ＵＴＣ 5km MSM LA LA LA LA MSM MSM MSM 2km LFM 5km MSM Local Analysis • Resolution 5km, 50 vertical levels • Domain ：2000kmx 1500km（Grid size: 400 x 300） • 3 hourly • Cut off time: 30 minutes • 3DVAR, Rapid Update Cycle • Observation • Surface, AMeDAS • Aircraft • Wind Profiler • Doppler Velocity • Ground based GPS TPW Lateral Boundary Rapid Update Cycle Lateral Boundary
Quantitative precipitation forecast, Typhoon Malou OBS(2km): 240mm/3hr LFM(2km): 107mm/3hr GSM(20km): 35mm/3hr MSM(5km): 69mm/3hr
Rainfall Verification of LFM • Winter (DJF) False Alarm Ratio Bias Score ETS Against Grid Mean Against Grid Max
Development– physics and dynamics- • Under development • Cumulus parameterization • Coupling of an ocean mixed-layer model • Increasing the number of vertical levels • Conservative semi-Lagrangian scheme • Non-orographic gravity wave drag • Yin-Yang Grid nonhydrostatic model
Blue: GSM L100v2 Red: LBL Lack of cooling?
Yin-Yang Grid- Williamson et al. (1992) case 5 - Conformal Cubic grid LAT-LON grid Spectral
Development – assimilation, data- • Recent changes • Nov. 2009: Assimilation of Metop/GRAS and GRACE has been started • Nov. 2009: Assimilation of AIREP temperature data has been started • Apr. 2010: Revise of Typhoon bugussing • Mar. 2010 Assimilation of Brazil RARS has been started • Oct.? 2010: Assimilation of COSMIC will be started • Under development • Update of Global Analysis inner model of 4DVAR • LETKF • AIRS and IASI • Reevaluate thinning parameters and observation errors • Rapid scan winds of MTSAT
Development – EPS - • Recent changes • Nov.? 2010: Stochastic Physics • Under development • Dec.? 2010: Revise Initial perturbations • Reforecast • LETKF
Initial Perturbation • Too large spread in NH, in Winter • Revised perturbation amplitude • Add perturbation in SH Operational Revised Revised 数値予報課コロキウム
Development – regional - • Recent changes • Sep. 2010: VarQC, Revise of Typhoon Bogussing • Nov. 2010: New 2-km NWP system : Local Forecast Model • Nov. 2010: Revise of the cumulus convection • Under development • Assimilation of radar reflectivity data • Development of a new dynamical core for the non-hydrostatic model • Development of a new dynamical core on CUDA/GPU • Development of a mesoscale ensemble system
Mixing ratio Upward mass flux at LCL Constant Interval of vertical levels Radius of convection at LCL Mixing ratio in Kain- Fritsch scheme • Constant • 0.2(starting plume) • 0.3 (McCarthy, 1974; Simpson 1983) • 0.75 (Malkus, 1960) • 1.0 (Barnes et al., 1996) In finner mesh simulation as 5km-mesh, the constant is not adequate for small scale convection メソ数値予報モデルにおける Kain-Fritsch 対流スキームの混合率の変更 － 数値予報課コロキウム
Operational Observed Rainfall [mm/3h] 28 June 2009 15UTC 33hour forecast by 5km-MSM Revised メソ数値予報モデルにおける Kain-Fritsch 対流スキームの混合率の変更 － 数値予報課コロキウム
Development of New Dynamical Core on GPGPU • Joint research between Tokyo-tech and JMA • Development of “ASUCA” on TSUBAME • Original : Fortran90 • Rewrite to C/C++, CUDA • All dynamics and physics are calculated on GPUs. • “Best Student Award” in SC10 15 TFLOPS on 520 GPUs
System Procurement in 2010 • Next System Procurement ~Jun 2010 • Demand 8.2x faster sustained computational speed • Become operational in Mar 2012 • Benchmark Tests • Global: GSM TL959, EPS TL479& TL319, 4DVAR • Meso: JMA-NHM 5 km& 2 km, 4DVAR, 3DVAR, ASUCA • HITACHI won the procurement again!! • HITACHI supplies JMA HPC systems for 50 years.
Next JMA Supercomputer • HITACHI next SR series • Peak Performance : 829.4TFLOPS • 2 Subsystems : 2x 414.7 TFLOPS • Operation + Backup • Memory : 108 TB • High-speed Storage : 348 TB • Data Storage : 3.7 PB + Tape Library • Benchmark result of TL959L100 • 9 days run with 40 nodes (1280 cores) = 35 minutes ?
A tentative NWP model upgrade plan for the next computer system (2012-) New! • Local Forecast Model (2km, hourly, 9 hour forecast, 3D-Var data assimilation) will be operational. • Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (10km, 5 members: pre-operational test) (TBD) • Extension of forecast period of One-week ensemble forecast to 18-days • Enhancement of vertical resolution (GSM, MSM and One-week and Typhoon ensemble) • Enhancement of horizontal resolution (WEPS and TEPS) • Increase of ensemble members (TEPS) New! New!
Future Plan ofMedium range and one month ensemble prediction system W1 W2 W3 W4 1w EPS(TL479L100) Separeted system 2w EPS(TL319L100) 2012- 1-month EPS(TL319L100) Hindcast 1w EPS （TL479L100） 2w EPS Ext-1w EPS 2014?- Reforecast 1-month EPS(TL319L100) Hindcast Unified system 1w EPS （TL479L100） Ext-1w EPS 1-month EPS 2018?- Reforecast/Hindcast
Meso Scale Model (MSM) • MSM has been operating since March 2001. • The objectives are disaster prevention and short range forecast. • We plan to expand the forecast domain to reduce the influence of lateral boundary condition on the next super computer system. • Local Forecast Model (LFM) • The trial run will start in December 2010 • The objectives are disaster prevention and aviation forecast. • We plan to expand the forecast domain to cover whole Japan. Current Current Plan Plan Forecast Domain and Topography of LFM Forecast Domain and Topography of MSM