The Great Divide What causes people to support one party instead of the other?
A. Race • Single Best Predictor for Most Racial Minorities If you can pick one characteristic about a person and then predict their own party identification, ask about race (and ethnicity): better predictor than age, sex, income, education, geography, etc. Also helps predict ideology and issue positions (Abramowitz)
Example: Race/Ethnicity Trump Rural-Urban Divide (Rural Counties Map)
’04 ‘08 2. African-American Political Participationa. ≈ 90% of African-Americans Vote Democratic
3. Asian-American Political Participation a. Recent Findings: • Pro-Democrat (3:1 for Kerry in 2004, 2:1 for Obama in 2008) • Majority too young to vote or noncitizens • Country of origin effects • Importance of immigration and language issues • Decreasing Democratic advantage? Mixed results due to small sample sizes b. Difficult to study quantitatively (small size of population relative to random sample of entire US population)
4. Native American Political Behavior • No exit polling data – findings based on geographic comparisons
B. The Ethnic Divide: Latino Political Behavior1. Latinos favor Democrats About 2:1
2. Party Identification Favors Democrats • Party Identification
C. The Gender Gap 1. Women more likely to favor Dems 2. Differential enthusiasm between men/women helps predict election outcomes (2010 midterm example)
4. Fiorina’sExplanation: Partisan Shifts • Women more dovish on security • Women more pro-government on social programs • Since 1970s Democrats have been both more dovish and more pro-government on social programs gender gap
D. Age 1. Democrats do well among the very young and the old
D. Age • Democrats do well among the very young and the old • But young are most likely to be independents
E. Population Density 1. Urban areas trend Democratic, Rural areas trend Republican
b. The Shift: Rural support for Republicans (Blue) and Democrats (Red) in Congress
2. The suburban majority: Voting splits on North/South lines Suburbs split 50-50 in 2000, 53-47 in 2004, 49-51 in 2008
II. Socioeconomic Status • Mostly from Gelman (2008 and subsequent presentations)
A. The red-blue paradox • Richer states tend to be more liberal and vote Democratic, while poorer states tend to be more conservative and vote Republican.
A. The red-blue paradox • Richer states tend to be more liberal and vote Democratic, while poorer states tend to be more conservative and vote Republican. • But richer people tend to be more conservative and vote Republican, while poorer people tend be more liberal and vote Democratic.