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The Great Divide

The Great Divide

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The Great Divide

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  1. The Great Divide What causes people to support one party instead of the other?

  2. I. Demographic Characteristics

  3. A. Race • Single Best Predictor for Most Racial Minorities If you can pick one characteristic about a person and then predict their own party identification, ask about race (and ethnicity): better predictor than age, sex, income, education, geography, etc. Also helps predict ideology and issue positions (Abramowitz)

  4. Example: Race/Ethnicity Trump Rural-Urban Divide (Rural Counties Map)

  5. County Map of 2008 Results

  6. ’04 ‘08 2. African-American Political Participationa. ≈ 90% of African-Americans Vote Democratic

  7. b. Race trumps gender, age, and income

  8. 3. Asian-American Political Participation a. Recent Findings: • Pro-Democrat (3:1 for Kerry in 2004, 2:1 for Obama in 2008) • Majority too young to vote or noncitizens • Country of origin effects • Importance of immigration and language issues • Decreasing Democratic advantage? Mixed results due to small sample sizes b. Difficult to study quantitatively (small size of population relative to random sample of entire US population)

  9. 4. Native American Political Behavior • No exit polling data – findings based on geographic comparisons

  10. Native American Counties

  11. County Map of 2008 Results

  12. B. The Ethnic Divide: Latino Political Behavior1. Latinos favor Democrats About 2:1

  13. 2. Party Identification Favors Democrats • Party Identification

  14. 3. Need to control for registration: large differences

  15. 4. Latino diversity: Country of Origin Effects

  16. All but Cuban-Americans favor Dems, on average

  17. 5. Ethnicity Trumps income, education, and residency

  18. 6. Immigration attitudes cross party lines

  19. C. The Gender Gap 1. Women more likely to favor Dems 2. Differential enthusiasm between men/women helps predict election outcomes (2010 midterm example)

  20. 3. Early gap was race-based, but recent increase is not

  21. 4. Fiorina’sExplanation: Partisan Shifts • Women more dovish on security • Women more pro-government on social programs • Since 1970s Democrats have been both more dovish and more pro-government on social programs  gender gap

  22. 5. Puzzle: Regional variation in the gender gap

  23. D. Age 1. Democrats do well among the very young and the old

  24. D. Age • Democrats do well among the very young and the old • But young are most likely to be independents

  25. 3. Gender outweighs age

  26. 3. Age increases voting

  27. E. Population Density 1. Urban areas trend Democratic, Rural areas trend Republican

  28. a. Population Density by County

  29. Election 2008: County Map

  30. b. The Shift: Rural support for Republicans (Blue) and Democrats (Red) in Congress

  31. c. Rural/Urban Voters Have Similar Priorities…

  32. d. …But Different Ideologies

  33. e. Two Core Divisions: Religion and Guns

  34. f. Rural Voters Reverse the “Gender Gap”

  35. 2. The suburban majority: Voting splits on North/South lines Suburbs split 50-50 in 2000, 53-47 in 2004, 49-51 in 2008

  36. II. Socioeconomic Status • Mostly from Gelman (2008 and subsequent presentations)

  37. A. The red-blue paradox • Richer states tend to be more liberal and vote Democratic, while poorer states tend to be more conservative and vote Republican.

  38. A. The red-blue paradox • Richer states tend to be more liberal and vote Democratic, while poorer states tend to be more conservative and vote Republican. • But richer people tend to be more conservative and vote Republican, while poorer people tend be more liberal and vote Democratic.