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Joint Helicopter Safety Analysis Team (JHSAT) Program Overview/Status

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Joint Helicopter Safety Analysis Team (JHSAT) Program Overview/Status

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  1. Joint Helicopter Safety Analysis Team (JHSAT) Program Overview/Status Mark Liptak FAA ANE-110

  2. JHSAT Overview/Status Topics Process lineage Process overview/timing expectations Team composition Dataset selection Using existing helicopter safety reports Measuring the results

  3. JHSAT Goal: Provide intervention strategies to the IHST and Joint Helicopter Safety Implementation Team (JHSIT) that maximize the likelihood of reducing worldwide helicopter accident rates by 80 percent by 2016.

  4. Process Lineage

  5. In the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety 1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal 1.2 The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards 5.3-2

  6. The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction • FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data • Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world 5.3-3

  7. In Response • Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) was created, adopted concepts of Boeings Accident Prevention Strategy (APS) • APS refined for use with CAST problem set • Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies initiatives were combined into CAST • CAST supported by Government and Industry with Worldwide Recognition IHST initiative will be driven by the sameprocess that produced measurable success in the part 121 arena

  8. CAST Goals • Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, manufacturers, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate IHST initiative driving for same level of helicopter accident reduction by 2017

  9. So how will this help helicopters? • Mature and flexible process ready for use in analysis of helicopter accidents • Leverage helicopter community key experts and stakeholders • Process recognized internationally by industry and regulators • Proven track record in reducing hazardous events • Results tracked by targeted metrics

  10. JHSAT Team Members Jack Drake (HAI) JHSAT co-chair Ann Azevedo (FAA Risk NRS) Mark Liptak(FAA) JHSAT co-chair Barry Rohm (Roll Royce) Roy Fox (Bell) Bruce Briknell (Navy) Fred Brisbois (Sikorsky) 2 to 3 operators Ed Stockhausen (Airmethods) Joe Syslo (Eurocopter) TBD (Robinson) Laura Iseler (IHST) Sandy Hart (NASA) Long Term participation not yet determined due to funding Bob Dodd (Dodd and Associates)

  11. Process Overview and Timing Expectations

  12. CAST (IHST)Charters Activity Basic CAST Process JSAT (JHSAT)Analyzes DataProposes most effective interventions JSIT (JHSIT)Assesses feasibility of interventions works implementation Continued data analysis,measure interventioneffectiveness

  13. JHSAT Process Flowchart CharterDevelopment EstablishTeam Select Data Set ReviewNTSBDocket Data DevelopEventSequence Identify InterventionStrategies ScoreProblemPower &Applicability ScoreInterventionEffectiveness Assign StdProblem Statements IdentifyProblems(what/why) Yes IHST Conflicts? Prioritize byOverallEffectiveness TechnicalReview ReportResults No JHSIT OE=ƒ(P, A, C) = currently being worked by JHSAT

  14. JHSAT Macro Process Flow and Outreach Approach JSAT ProcessUnderstandingRefining USDataset Selection JHSAT Analysis TechReview MitigationRecs for US Feb 07 Jan 07 Mar/Apr 06 May-Nov 06 Dec 06 TechReview Apr 06 Indoctrinate in JHSATProcess IdentifyFCAA &MilitaryPartners ConductJHSATbased analyses MitigationRecsFCAA & Mil Jan 07 June-Dec 06 May 06 June 06 MitigationRecs - Global Mar 07 = currently being worked by JHSAT

  15. JSAT Process - adapting to rotorcraft data JSAT Process relies on reconstruction of event sequences Lack of detailed data in rotorcraft accidents JHSAT will be more dependent on subject matter experts to fill voids in data Develop customized list of standard problem statements Continuing to work sample accident reports to better understand process issues.

  16. Secondary Technical Support JHSAT findings will be reviewed by subject matter experts. Analysis results will be subject to peer review.Anticipated areas: Airframe Pilots Engines Maintenance Training Regulators Others Will develop and draw on these resources as intervention areas are developed from the data Need SME expertise to validate intervention recommendations

  17. Dataset Selection

  18. 24,294 Worldwide Civil Helicopters Source: Rotor Roster 2006

  19. 24 year look back – Relative stability in helicopter accident causal factors

  20. Worldwide Helicopter Accident Count Goal • Present average 10-year (1996-2005) accident count: 562 accidents/year • 80% reduction goal means that the number of accidents per year starting in 2016 should be: 0.2 X 562 = 112.4 accidents • Challenge: 562 accidents today 112 in 2017

  21. JHSAT Multi-Year Data Analysis Approach NTSB Data+InternationalData 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 ReportMar ‘07 Report2008 Report2009 Validate Validate

  22. Existing Safety Reports

  23. Leveraging Existing Helicopter Safety Studies Can we offer any mitigation recommendations in the near term?

  24. Measuring the results “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results” Winston Churchill

  25. Safety Metrics • Purpose: Measure to determine if program is resulting in desired risk reduction. • Assumption: Measurement of accident rate alone is not an effective means of identifying program success, interventions must be measurable • Concentrate on using reporting systems currently in place • Identify issues needing more detailed analysis if desired result is not occurring • Issue annual reports showing key indicator trends • Time span, at least 10 years, also an opportunity to establish a permanent set of criteria to measure for monitoring the “system-wide” health of the helicopter sector

  26. Conclusions • IHST safety initiative is utilizing a proven, widely recognized data-driven process • JHSAT team comprised of a cross-section of helicopter industry experts has been formed • Dataset selected – NTSB 2000-2005 • JHSAT pushing to publish first set of helicopter safety intervention recommendations by 1Q07. • Leveraging existing safety reports • Outreach effort to engage international community • Performance will be measured

  27. Questions/Comments