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Aging Out of Foster Care - Where the Numbers Are Headed and Why? Fred Wulczyn and Linda Collins Center for State Foster Care and Adoption Data. Goal. Look forward in time to answer the question: Will recent trends in the number of youth aging out continue? What can we say about why?.

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Aging Out of Foster Care - Where the Numbers Are Headed and Why?Fred Wulczyn and Linda CollinsCenter for State Foster Care and Adoption Data

slide3
Goal

Look forward in time to answer the question:

Will recent trends in the number of youth aging out continue?

What can we say about why?

approach
Approach
  • Support from AECF and JCYOI
  • 15 states from the state data center
  • Observed data from 2002 to 2008 (7 years)
  • 5 year projection – 2009 to 2013
  • Statistical model
    • Compared the model to what was observed
    • Used that model for the projection
inputs
Inputs
  • Number of children and youth in care by age
  • Number of admissions by age
  • Time in care by age (median)

Plus

  • Baseline number of children aging out
conclusion
Conclusion

Decline is (very) likely

Results differ by state and within states

Urban/rural differences may be especially important

Admission trends are the driver

Unmeasured attributes of youth are important