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On the role of Scenario’s for Defence (and Security) Planning . Velingrad, Bulgaria 21-25 October 2006. NATO Science Committee. Advanced Research Workshop Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector. Ren é Willems Strategy and Policy Studies

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on the role of scenario s for defence and security planning

On the role of Scenario’s for Defence (and Security) Planning

Velingrad, Bulgaria

21-25 October 2006

NATO Science Committee

Advanced Research Workshop

Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector

René Willems

Strategy and Policy Studies

TNO Defence and Security

netherlands organisation for applied research tno core areas
Netherlands Organisation for Applied Research TNO Core Areas

TNO Defence, Security and Safety

TNO Science and Industry

TNO Quality of Life

TNO Built Environment and Geosciences

TNO Information and Communication Technology

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contents
Contents
  • Challenges
  • Coping with Uncertainty
  • Strategic Planning
  • Scenario’s and Analysis
  • Illustrative Example
  • In Summary

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the world today
the world today
  • Global shifts in power
  • Ideological and cultural differences underlined
  • Technological developments fasten
  • Globalisation and access to information and production

And our understanding of how things work together lacks. We are hardly able to argue and predict likely futures, values and costs.

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towards non linear complex systems
Towards non-linear complex systems

Linear system

Complex system

Input

Input

Own initiative

predictable actors and interactions

Dead end

streets

Unpredictable actors and interactions

Unpredictable output

Predictable

output

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contents6
Contents
  • Challenges
  • Coping with Uncertainty
  • Strategic Planning
  • Scenario’s and Analysis
  • Illustrative Example
  • In Summary

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deep uncertainty

Level of agreement for consensus

Amount of evidence (theories, observations, models)

Deep Uncertainty

Deep uncertainty: When we do not know, and/or key parties to the decision do not agree on, the system model, prior probabilities, and/or “cost” function (Lempert e.a. 2004)

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coping with uncertainty
Coping with Uncertainty
  • Ignore

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tools for strategic foresight

Known

Trends

Facts

Causality

Drivers

Unknown

Low

High

Availability of information

Tools for Strategic Foresight

Prediction

Scenarios

Projection

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Source: After R. Leemans 2003

different approaches to dealing with uncertainty
Different approaches to dealing with uncertainty

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Source: Robert Lempert, RAND, 2004

contents11
Contents
  • Challenges
  • Coping with Uncertainty
  • Strategic Planning
  • Scenario’s and Analysis
  • Illustrative Example
  • In Summary

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slide12

Long Term Planning

In Defence and Security

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capability based planning
Capability Based Planning

Require-ments

Missions

Risk- analysis

Task

areas

Tasks

Capacities

(Soll/Ist)

Priorities

Foresights

Planning scenario's

Analysis

Prevention

Response

Evaluation

Task

List

Capacities-list

Overall Security Picture

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nato drr
NATO DRR

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modern adaptive planning

Linear planning “assumes A future”

Most Likely Future

Today

MasterPlan

Scenario planning uses a range of potential futures

Alternative Futures

Robust Strategies

Viable Across a Range of Potential Futures

Today

(modern) adaptive planning

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Source: After US Dos, 2005

slide16

Risk and Uncertainty in Capability Planning

Worldview

Self image

Threat

assessment

(Nat) Ambitions

Scenarios

(foreign and security

policy)

Societal

Developments

Desired

capabilities

Technological

Objective Force

Legacy Force

(current doctrine

developments

(Doctrine, organization, etc)

organization, etc)

Policy making

(transformation + processes)

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contents17
Contents
  • Challenges
  • Coping with Uncertainty
  • Strategic Planning
  • Scenario’s and Analysis
  • Illustrative Example
  • In Summary

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scenario
An outline or synopsis of a play

The book of an opera

Screenplay

Shootin list

Michael Porter : a scenario is an internally

consistent view on the future,

not a prediction but a possible result

Stories, an old way of organizing knowledge

Scenario

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anatomy of scenario exercises

NATO characteristics

  • What aspects of NATO are subject to change?
  • ‘Wild Cards’
  • High-impact events
  • ‘Drivers’
  • Trends
  • Processes
  • Uncertainties

Images of future worlds

  • Plot
  • Captures the dynamics
  • Communicates effectively
Anatomy of scenario-exercises
  • Boundaries
  • Spatial: global
  • Thematic
  • Temporal :2025+

Source: After P. Raskin 2002

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contents22
Contents
  • Challenges
  • Coping with Uncertainty
  • Strategic Planning
  • Scenario’s and Analysis
  • Illustrative Example
  • In Summary

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nato long term requirements study

DRR and the CMF

LTCR derivation process

Key input data

Mission Types (e.g. Peace Keeping) &

Generic Planning Situations

  • WP1 (Security environments)
  • Strategic foresight
  • Security trends
  • Strategic implications

Mission Types (e.g. Peace Keeping) &

Generic Planning Situations

Mission Types (e.g. Peace Keeping) &

generic Planning Situations

WP5

(Methodology development)

Future

worlds

  • Mission analysis
  • Effects
  • Capability-Needs statements
  • Strategic -> Operational
  • WP2 (Future role of NATO)
  • Configuration
  • Ambition
  • WP3 (Future technology)
  • Technology trends influencing military capability needs – presenting opportunities
  • Comparison of technology trends with trends outlined in existing LTCRs

Capabilities

Gap Analysis

(existing LTCR vs. capability req.)

Capability

Management

Framework

  • WP4 (Future concepts/doctrines)
  • Summary of developing concepts and their future implications (with ICTs)
  • Identification and outline of concepts that need to be developed

Prioritization

Prioritized list of

new LTCR (by 7 TOA)

NATO Long Term Requirements Study

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matrix of drivers and characteristics

?

Matrix of Drivers and Characteristics

Character-

istics

‘Drivers’

Notional examples!!!

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slide25
Axes

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scenario exercises
Scenario-exercises

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operationalizing driver categories 2
Operationalizing driver categories(2)

Dominant forces

Markets

A

Economic

B

F

G

Political

C

E

State Actors

D

Non-State Actors

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future worlds
Future worlds

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in summary
In Summary
  • deep uncertainty wrt the security environment;
  • capabilities of forces be adaptive and flexible;
  • planning for a flexible approach;
  • systematic approach to guide decision makers;
  • scenario’s and scenario-analyses in support.

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literature selection
Literature selection
  • van der Heijden, Scenarios, The art of strategic conversation, Wiley and Sons, 1996
  • Lempert a.o., Shaping the next one hundred years, new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis; the RAND Pardee Center, 2003
  • Ogilvy & Schwartz, Plotting your scenariosGBN 1998/2004
  • Gill Ringland: Scenarios in Business, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84382-9
  • Scenarios in Public Policy, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84383-7
  • Schwartz, The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world
  • Robert van Oorschot : Future Management, the paradox of a controllable future (2003)
  • Global Business Environment Shell International : People and Connections, Global scenarios to 2020
  • S de Spiegeleire, R Korteweg : Military Matters - future NATO’s

NATO review, summer 2006,

  • Lt Col T W Russell, Generic Strategic Campaign Planning, D Strat Plans / JDCC, May 2005

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slide33

Source: The Far Side, Gary Larson

Long Term

Planning

Conference

The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen – The world’s climate is changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain the size of a walnut

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