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NOAA's Space Weather Program   Contributions to NSWP December 12, 2005

NOAA's Space Weather Program   Contributions to NSWP December 12, 2005. Presented to NSWP Assessment Team. NOAA’s Space Weather Program. One of 45 Programs in NOAA Charter Established, 2005 Mission Requirements Continuously Monitor, measure, and specify the space environment

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NOAA's Space Weather Program   Contributions to NSWP December 12, 2005

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  1. NOAA's Space Weather Program   Contributions to NSWP December 12, 2005 Presented to NSWP Assessment Team

  2. NOAA’s Space Weather Program • One of 45 Programs in NOAA • Charter Established, 2005 • Mission Requirements • Continuously Monitor, measure, and specify the space environment • Provide timely and accurate space weather, operational forecasts, alerts, and warnings of hazardous space weather phenomena • Provide scientific stewardship of, and public access to, space wather data • Understand the processes that influence space weather develop applications for the user community • Develop new and improved products and transition them into operations to meet evolving space weather needs

  3. NOAA’s relationship to National Program 2 5 4 1 3

  4. Space Weather Atmosphere Terrestrial Weather Snow Pack Air Quality Estuaries Oceans Fresh Water Coasts Soil Moisture NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA) Design observing systems that support NOAA's mission and provide maximum value. Includes all observing systems required to support NOAA's mission (NOAA and non-NOAA data sources) Space weather observations are integrated into NOSA Environmental Services NOAA is focused on building “an integrated global environmental observation and data management system”—an Earth observation system that is comprehensive and sustained.

  5. Monitor, Measure and Specify Data for Today’s Space Weather • Ground Sites • Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS) • Thule Riometer and Neutron monitor (USAF) • SOON Sites (USAF) • RSTN (USAF) • Telescopes and Magnetographs • Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …) • GPS (CORS) • SOHO (NASA) • Solar EUV Images • Solar Corona (CMEs) NASA SOHO • ACE (NASA) • Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles • Magnetic field strength and direction L1 NASA ACE NOAA GOES • GOES (NOAA) • Energetic Particles • Magnetic Field • Solar X-ray Flux • Solar X-Ray Images NOAA POES • POES (NOAA) • High Energy Particles • Total Energy Deposition • Solar UV Flux

  6. GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04) GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan) (Launch: 4/25/97, Operational) GOES 11 (Launch: 5/13/00, On-orbit storage) GOES 12 (Launch: 7/23/01, Operational) GOES N0P (Launch GOES N early 2006) GOES R Series starts 2012 GOES 10 GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation • Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) • Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and • alpha particle fluxes • e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV • Lower energy electrons and protons begin on GOES N • Heavy Ions begin on GOES R • Magnetometer (MAG) • Monitors the vector magnetic field • 0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT • X-Ray Sensor (XRS) • Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands • 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms • Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 • One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, • 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array • Solar EUV Sensor (EUVS) – first on GOES N • Monitors whole-Sun EUV irradiance in five bands • between 10 and 125 nm • Coronagraph (SCOR) –GOES R ?? • Pre-Planned Product Improvement (not yet manifested) SXI: NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership

  7. Polar Observations (POES, METOP, NPOESS) • POES and METOP • Total Energy Detector (TED) • 50 eV to 20 KeV electrons and ions • Total energy deposition into atmosphere • Medium Energy Proton And Electron Detector (MEPED) • Electrons from 30 KeV to 2.5 MeV • Ions from 30 KeV to 6.9 MeV • Protons 16 MeV to >140 MeV • Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV 2 or GOME on METOP) • Primarily an ozone sensor • Monitors solar irradiance from 140 to 340 nm • NPOESS • HEPS,MEPS, LEPS • Particle sensors • similar to TED and MEPED • Thermal Plasma Sensor • Electric fields and plasma temperatures • similar to DMSP SSIES • AURORA • UV airglow sensor • Similar to DMSP SSUSI • Total Solar and Spectral Irradiance Sensor • similar to NASA SORCE TIM and SIM • Operational Satellites • NOAA14 (marginal SEM, marginal SBUV) • NOAA15 (working SEM, no SBUV) • NOAA16 (working SEM, working SBUV) • NOAA17 (working SEM, working SBUV) • NOAA-18 (working SEM, working SBUV) • NOAA-N’ (2008) • METOP-1 (2006) European Collaboration • METOP-2 (2010) European Collaboration • NPOESS (2013?)

  8. Examples of Ground-Based Observationsused in Space Weather Operations Mt. Wilson Solar Magnetogram • Solar • AF SEON, NSO SOLIS, HAO Mauna Loa, NJIT Big Bear, Stanford Wilcox, Mt. Wilson, Penticton radio F10.7, NSO GONG • Cosmic Rays • Thule and McMurdo Neutron Monitor • Ionosphere • AF DISS Network and other globally distributed ionosondes • NOAA CORS and other global GPS networks • Magnetic Field • USGS and Intermagnet Magnetometers • Energetic particle precipitation • Thule RIOmeter Mauna Loa H-alpha USGS Magnetometer Real-time ionospheric electron density using CORS

  9. The Future: Observations are needed for Space Exploration • Near the Earth and • under the radiation belts - • Shuttle and ISS ops: • EVA scheduling, and • occasional “sheltering”. • Knowledge of current SWx • situation required. • In Cislunar and lunar orbits, lunar surface operations: • Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledge • of current/evolving SWx. Predictive capability of SWx enhances • exploration. • Beyond the Moon - Ln and Mars:Need for optimization • of flight plans and ops with knowledge of current SWx conditions. • Predictive capability enables exploration. Figure adapted from Fisher/NASA Hq

  10. DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations DoD SEC Space Weather Model Development Rapid Prototyping Centers Verification Documentation CCMC Model Access Validation Metrics Space Weather Research Community Targeted Space Weather Research NSF/AF/ONR/NOAA Living With a Star NASA Core Space Science Research Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling NSF Multi-University Research Initiatives AF/ONR

  11. Research to Operations: Testbed Products Shue et al. Magnetopause Model (Detman / SEC) Wang, Sheeley, Arge Solar Wind Model (Arge / NOAA CIRES) POES Polar Cap Solar Protons (Evans, Greer / SEC) CISM Ap Forecast Model (Weigel, Gehmeyr et al. / CU) Weimer Magnetic Disturbance Model (Weimer / MRC) Polar Cap HF Propagation Model (Sauer / NGDC, Fuller-Rowell / NOAA CIRES)

  12. SEC Product Development and Transition Process • Concept and Initiation • Be user focused (target highest priority needs) • Consider many sources of potential transition candidates • Within and external to SEC (CISM, CCMC, USAF, commercial, etc.) • Rank transition candidates against these factors: • Strategic Importance, Operational Significance, Implementation Readiness • Have commitment of SEC Management in SEC AOP • Planning and Implementation • Employ appropriate level of project management principles • Use iterative development and validation • Generate routine experimental products in an operational-like (systems and data) test bed environment

  13. SEC Product Development and Transition Process • Approval and Delivery • Track and sign off critical internal transition steps • Documentation, software CM, support procedures, training, etc. • Release as a NWS test product for external review • Finalize product and get SEC and NWS approval • Advertise new product in appropriately • WWW, announcements, publications, meetings, etc. • Maintain and Assess for Continual Improvement • Establish appropriate performance metrics • Track product performance through ongoing verification • Explore product enhancements or replacement as technology evolves or new opportunities occur

  14. Space Weather Week: Bridging the Gap of Research to Operations April 5 - 8, 2005 • An annual, and growing, event at NOAA SEC that includes: • Space environment effects • Impacts on economy, health, and safety • Information for decision makers • Relevant research • Service enhancements • Vendor meetings • Interagency coordination • International Space Environment Services meetings http://sec.noaa.gov/sww

  15. DOE Nuclear Reg Comm Schlumberger NY/PJM Grid Ball Loral NESDIS/SOCC Digital Globe Boeing Lockheed Aerospace Echostar NASA Space Command ISS Astronauts FAA American United Airlines Northwest Continental • A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA space weather services today: • U.S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dep. of Transportation ( GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • DoD Operations Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation Growth of Space Weather Customers NOAA Space Environment Center Sunspot Cycles

  16. UAL POLAR ROUTES NEW YORK 82 N CHICAGO #1 #1A #2 #3 #4 BEIJING SHANGHAI HONG KONG OSAKA TOKYO Source: M. Stills, UAL

  17. Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23 • The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month • Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)

  18. Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer Summary Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month. • ~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products • more than 250,000 unique customers per month • customers from 150 countries • NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite. • A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers • Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only) • – 140,000 unique users monthly • Five million POES file transfers per month (web only) • – 185,000 unique users monthly • – 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!

  19. Service Begins Lockheed Martin Management NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups… NASDA (Japan) Mission Control CSA (Canada) Mission Control • NASA Mission Control • NASA Management • Flight Control • Biomedical Engineers • Surgeon ESA (Europe) Mission Control NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group RSA (Russia) Mission Control NOAA/SEC Radiation Alert/Warning Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems

  20. 46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site: • 35 updating Plots, • 8 real-time lists • 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials" • Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data • A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers • SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month. ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users: Japan U.S. Government .com (commercial) United Kingdom Education .net (commercial) Germany Russia Australia Belgium

  21. No Solar Wind Measurements Nominal Mission Extended Mission ACE 1996 2000 2004 2008 2016 2012 Loss of NOAA’s Ability to Issue Warnings of Geomagnetic Storms ACE – Solar Wind Monitoring • Critical solar wind data used by NOAA is broadcast from the ACE NASA research satellite • ACE has long passed its expected 5 year life time • There is no backup system (that meets requirements) to replace ACE when it fails • NOAA’s broad area announcement is refining best cost and • schedule options for replacement including: • - collaborative data purchase • - lowest cost government satellite • - lowest cost Triana/DSCVR refurbishment Loss of Solar Wind Data Impact: Loss of service includes: ending many geomagnetic storm warning services and a significant decline in accuracy and timing for the remaining geomagnetic storm forecast products; loss of key data input to 16 space weather models in operations or in development; and loss of key data for vendor services. • Issue #1: NASA will end ACE program(NASA’s research mission accomplished; however, ACE has fuel reserve to last to ~2015). • Solutions:Extend ACE solar wind monitoring by: • ● NASA transfers ACE program to NOAA • ● NOAA funds NASA to continue ACE programIssue #2: ACE fails • Solutions:NOAA establishes monitoring by: • ● Data buy or satellite program (start ~2010) • ● Relying on non-U.S. source (e.g., KuaFu • mission - proposed Chinese space weather • satellite with a launch date ~2012)

  22. Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data • SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations • Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow • Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet • ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six

  23. P3I Coronagraph Needed to Improve Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts A coronagraph will answer questions similar to those asked about hurricanes: • Did a CME occur? • Will the CME hit the Earth, thus causing a geomagnetic storm? • When will the storm begin? - 1 to 3 days warning • How strong will the storm be? • How long will the storm last? Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003 NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004 Halloween Storms

  24. NOAA/SEC Real Time Data - an absolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations >80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data NOAA/SEC Data (Primarily Satellite) STRATCOM Space Command USAF Air Force Weather Agency Army and Navy Operations Missile Defense Agency National Reconnaissance Office U.S. Northern Command and NORAD Joint Space Ops Center - Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets - Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems - Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews - HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations - SATCOM interference/downlink problems - Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations National Security Impacts

  25. Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Weather Products

  26. Solar Wind MonitorImpact of ACE Failure on Space Weather Services • Only known method of producing accurate warnings of geomagnetic storms with ~1 hour lead time • > 90 % reliability of predicting major storms • Complete loss of short term geomagnetic storm warnings • 5 classes of products lost (Impulse, K4, K5, K6, >K7) • Impact on other geomagnetic storm watches • Impact on radiation storm products • Customer Impacts • Only source of reliable short term warnings disappears • Commerce impacted: Electric Power, Radio Communication including airlines, Pipelines, Vendor Industry • U.S. Space Program and Federal Agencies Impacted • NASA, FAA, NRA • International commerce impacted, same effects world-wide

  27. Solar Wind Monitor National Research Council Report • NASA’s ACE satellite at L1 • Beyond design lifetime (1997-2002) • NASA currently funds through 2005 • Solar Wind monitor follow-on planning • underway in NOAA and partnerships • are being explored ACE Satellite At L1 DoD and NOAA should be the lead agencies in acquiring all the data sets needed for accurate specification and forecast modeling… www.nap.edu

  28. Commercial Aviation:Now and Future Polar Routes Open late 1990s (UAL- 1/mo. to 4/day) Need more Space Weather Products and Services Develop New Products New Products in System Existing NWS Structure WAFS/ICAO Joint Planning & Development Office Next Generation Air Transportation System Triple the Capacity of Airspace More Radiation and Navigation Issues Need more Space Weather Products and Services Aircraft Fly Higher

  29. Predicted Polar Route Capacity Source: Transport Canada Assumptions Report 2005-2019, September 2005, p. 60

  30. SEC Observation Sources ACE GOES POES SOHO • DISS • IMS • SCINDA • SEON • SOON

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