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Forest Fever: Using Dengue to Explore the Mathematics of Ecology, Epidemiology and Evolution

Forest Fever: Using Dengue to Explore the Mathematics of Ecology, Epidemiology and Evolution. Ruijin Zhao, Namyong Lee, Laura Aldrich-Wolfe. DENV as epidemic vs. endemic Why? Likelihood of new DENV emergence. What is a (RNA) virus anyway?.

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Forest Fever: Using Dengue to Explore the Mathematics of Ecology, Epidemiology and Evolution

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  1. Forest Fever: Using Dengue to Explore the Mathematics of Ecology, Epidemiology and Evolution RuijinZhao, Namyong Lee, Laura Aldrich-Wolfe

  2. DENV as epidemic vs. endemic Why?Likelihood of new DENV emergence

  3. What is a (RNA) virus anyway?

  4. Dengue Fever Cases with Metadata from Virus Pathogen Resource (VIPR) http://www.viprbrc.org/brc/epiSrcTypeData.do?dataSet=Cases%20DF&typeCvt=1283&decorator=flavi&srcCvt=1304

  5. Commensal bacterium Wolbachia may reduce transmission rates by shortening female life span How? Why? • Nature • 476, • 450–453 • (25 August 2011) • doi:10.1038/nature10355

  6. Some basic questions • How does disease transmission vary with incubation rate? • Who is at greatest risk of developing Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) and why? • What environmental or social factors correlate with prevalence of Dengue Fever? (Data acquisition (Search) and visualization (Gapminder))

  7. Mathematical Models • Differential equations models • Stochastic models • Difference equations models • Agent-based models

  8. Acknowledgments • NIMBioS • SCALE-IT • BioQUEST • Dr. John Jungck

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