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Michael J. Kurylo Chairman, 7 th ORM Meeting

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  1. Report of the Seventh Meeting of theOzone Research Managers of theParties to the Vienna Conventionfor the Protection of the Ozone Layer Michael J. Kurylo Chairman, 7th ORM Meeting

  2. Background: The 7th meeting of Ozone Research Managers of the Parties to the Vienna Convention was held in Geneva (18-21 May, 2008) in accordance with decisions I/6 and III/8 of the COP. ORM Reports and the WMO-UNEP Scientific Assessments have different purposes: All are required under the Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol The Assessments enable the Parties to evaluate control measures under the Montreal Protocol and are communication devices between the research community (striving for better understanding) and decision makers (seeking informed action) The Assessments are neither policy recommendations nor research planning documents but provide input for both The ORM Reports, on the other hand, specifically address research and monitoring needs in light of scientific understanding and make specific recommendations to the Parties regarding international actions for improved research coordination and networking

  3. Implementation: Agenda Items for 7th ORM Meeting Included A review of recommendations from the 6th ORM Presentations on the state of the ozone layer and interactions with climate change Updates on international monitoring programs Satellite research and monitoring programs (present status and outlooks for the future ) Regional reports on ozone research and monitoring taking into account the available national reports Recommendations in four principal areas (research needs, systematic observations, data archiving, and capacity building)

  4. Recommendations The recommendations were set against the following background from the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006 • Stratospheric ozone will remain vulnerable to chemical depletion by chlorine and bromine chemicals for much of the current century • Ozone-depleting chemicals are projected to return to their “pre-ozone-depletion” levels by the middle of this century for mid-latitudes, with polar regions following suit about 20 years later • While the rate of ozone depletion at mid-latitudes has slowed in recent years due to the decline in EESC, polar ozone loss remains large and is highly variable • projections of a changing climate will impact the stratospheric ozone layer and its recovery • the connections between these two issues are currently being explored by the science community

  5. Recommendations: Background from the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006 (a) (b) (c) (d) ODS production ODS production Ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere ODS in the atmosphere Ozone levels – measured and predicted Global ozone change UV levels – based on observations and predictions Ultraviolet radiation change 1980Now2100

  6. Recommendations: Background • The complexities of ozone and UV science require: • Continuation and expansion of systematic measurement and analysis capabilities for tracking the evolution of ozone- and climate-related source gases and parameters. • Detection and tracking the stabilization and expected recovery of stratospheric ozone. • Attribution of changes in radiation forcing to changes in the ozone profile or to other atmospheric changes. • Derivation of a global record of ground-level UV radiation.

  7. Recommendations: Background from the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006

  8. Recommendations: Research Needs There are a number of new questions with respect to expected ozone recovery from the influence of ODSs and the interrelationship between ozone and climate variability and change. These require • Studies to quantify the chemical, radiative, and dynamical factors contributing to ozone layer evolution in a changing atmosphere (including studies of the consequences of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies) • Laboratory studies relating to ozone evolution and monitoring • Studies to understand the emissions (natural and anthropogenic), banks, and atmospheric evolution of ODSs, ODS substitutes, and other climate-related trace gases (effects of climate change on sources, sinks, and lifetimes)

  9. Recommendations: Research Needs(continued) • Studies to investigate the role and impact of changes in stratospheric ozone and ODSs on surface climate and on tropospheric processes • Studies to investigate the influence of factors other than ozone (such as cloud cover, aerosol abundance, albedo, and temperature) on surface UV • Studies of the effects of UV radiation exposure on human health, ecosystems, and materials • Development of new and innovative instrumentation, algorithms, and analyses as a means of reducing measurement uncertainty and increasing global observational capacity for ozone, UV, ODSs, and related variables

  10. Recommendations: Systematic Observations Such observations are critical to understanding and monitoring long term changes in ozone and surface UV. Surface Networks – Priorities • Expansion in tropics, central Asia, and southern mid-latitudes through the redistribution of measurements from highly represented areas • Preference for Brewers for new ozone and UV monitoring expansion • Expansion of Umkehr sites for upper stratospheric time series • Continuity of in situ observations of ODSs, ODS substitutes, and GHGs as well as of networks providing altitude profile information for ozone- and climate-related species • Increase in balloon sonde networks for ozone and water vapor

  11. Recommendations: Systematic Observations (contin.) Satellite Networks – Priorities (recognition of a serious near term gap in measurements of ozone and ozone- / climate-related species)

  12. Recommendations: Systematic Observations(continued) Satellite Networks – Priorities (recognition of a serious near term gap in measurements of ozone and ozone- / climate-related species) • Continuation of solar backscatter UV observations (ozone trends) • High vertical resolution profiles for ozone and key molecules via limb viewing (need to understand ΔO3 vs. ΔODS in a changing climate ) • Gap filling missions between current limb observations and future missions (e.g. solar occultation FTS or limb viewing microwave for high vertical resolution measurements of ozone and ozone-related parameters)

  13. Recommendations: Systematic Observations(continued) Data Records – Priorities • Systematic effort to understand differences between data sets derived using different observational techniques • Intercomparison campaigns to reduce systematic differences in observations using identical and different techniques • Analysis / archiving of existing (unanalyzed) data sets • Reanalysis of data sets based on algorithm or analysis improvements • Workshop in 2009/2010 on total ozone time series

  14. Recommendations: Systematic Observations(continued) Additional Priorities • Infusion of new (more sophisticated) instruments in network observations (establishment of Standard Operating Procedures) • Documentation of spectroscopic parameters used for data analysis; improved measurements of cross-sections for ozone and related species • Increased level of collaboration and coordination among various observational networks • International calibration structure for UV networks – NDACC protocol example; improved coordination under SAG for UV Monitoring

  15. Recommendations: Data Archiving Before being archived, data must be quality assured (i.e., of highest possible quality and includes metadata required by users). • Fully implement 6th ORM recommendations • Prompt data submission to WOUDC • Funding for archiving of raw data • Support for the re-evaluation of historical data sets • Salvage (recovery and assessment) of historical data • Development of standard data quality assurance procedures • Enhance linkage among data centers (O3, UV, GHG, met products, etc.) to ensure availability for validation and modeling efforts • Archiving of data obtained from regional process studies for improved accessibility

  16. Recommendations: Capacity Building There is an insufficient number of regional centers for research, calibration, and training (especially in developing countries). Need to expand global networks and develop competence and expertise in developing countries and CEITs. Specifically, • Extend global expertise in O3 and UV observations and research • Increase participation in regional and international research and assessments • Mechanisms for extended visits to institutions in developed countries • Participation in regional and international validation /intercomparison campaigns • Support for attendance at conferences and workshops • Provide resources for sustainable, long term operation of regional centers

  17. Recommendations: Capacity Building • Continued contributions to the Trust Fund for Observation and Research (extended by Decision VII/2) • Monetary and in-kind contributions • Quantify in-kind contributions targeted at ozone and UV activities • Encourage submission of proposals for funding from the Trust Fund or other relevant in-kind support • Proposal submission throughout the year • Proposal evaluation assisted by WMO/GAW Scientific Advisory Group • Include support for capacity building in ozone observations under UNEP’s Compliance Assistance Programme

  18. The full report of the Seventh Meeting of the Ozone Research Managers along with the detailed recommendations stemming from this meeting is available as:WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 51 • Report No. 51 includes all of the submitted national reports • The recommendations have been produced as a meeting document in the 6 UN languages – UNEP/OzL.Conv.8/6