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Seven Generations of War. Evolutionary Eras1st Generation2nd Generation3rd Generation4th Generation5th Generation6th Generation7th Generation. Linch PinLow Tech MassNew TechNew DoctrineNon-State RMA (C4I)RIA (IO/Intel)RGA. Means of Winning AttritionAttritionManeuverAsymmetryPre

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iraq intel infoops assessment summary of joint lessons learned

Iraq Intel/InfoOps Assessment & Summary of Joint Lessons Learned

Robert David Steele

Updated 24 October 2003

seven generations of war
Evolutionary Eras

1st Generation

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

4th Generation

5th Generation

6th Generation

7th Generation

Linch Pin

Low Tech Mass

New Tech

New Doctrine

Non-State

RMA (C4I)

RIA (IO/Intel)

RGA

Seven Generations of War

Means of Winning

Attrition

Attrition

Maneuver

Asymmetry

Precision Weapons

Precision Intel(!!)

Everything, Always

definitions
Intelligence

JCS: product

JCS: knowledge

CIA: knowledge and foreknowledge as prelude to decision and action (covert action silent)

OSS: global coverage, all sources, all languages, 24/7, NRT analysis at all times

Information Operations

1. Electronic Warfare (EW)

2. Operations Security (OPSEC)

3. Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)

4. Military Deception

5. Computer Network Ops (CNO).

6. Supporting InfoAssurance

Counter Intelligence

Physical Security

Physical Attack

7. Intelligence

8. Public Affairs/Civil Affairs

9. Public Diplomacy & Assistance

Definitions
seven generations of intelligence io
Evolutionary Eras

1st Generation

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

4th Generation

5th Generation

6th Generation

7th Generation

Seven Generations of Intelligence/IO

What Do We Need to Know

Easy: Where is the army?

Easy: Where are the trenches?

Moderate: How many with what?

Hard: Watch every non-state actor.

Hard: Watch everything on the fly.

Hard: Make sense of billions of bits.

Very Hard: 24/7, 29+ languages and get your own house in order.

us allied intelligence in iraq
Successes

Good last minute exiles sent in with money and forged documents to recruit and observe

Failures

No deep clandestine assets

No new nor firm knowledge on WMD

Intel vacuum allowed WH adventurism

Did not locate Saddaam

Could not keep up with battle forces

Unable to do guerilla/urban intelligence

No peace/reconstruction intelligence

(Note: the US corruption is *amazing*)

US/Allied Intelligence in Iraq
us allied infoops in iraq
Successes

Saved the Oil Fields

Inspired desertions & no fires

Kept most civilians out of fight

Failures

Sunglasses & armor--aid as PSYOP

Girls forced to urinate publicly (rdblks)

Saddam as Elvis (cowboy IO)

Poor impact on Arabs (bye to Al J.)

Poor impact on Europe (bye to Old E.)

Ignored non-Arab Muslims world-wide (Central Asia, South Asia, India, Pakistan, Muslim Africa)

US/Allied InfoOps in Iraq
net assessment of iraq intel io
Net Assessment of Iraq Intel/IO

F Reconstruction intel

F Post-war Guerilla intel

F Global IO Images

F Covert Ops Options

D WMD actual status

C Battle damage

B Kick-off OOB

D Congressional debate

Bottom line: Intel/IO had no coherent strategy, conflicting or absent capabilities and messages, earns a 3 out of a possible 7 on the continuum.

Note: Policy decisions can be said to have handicapped intelligence.

joint lessons learned i
Joint Lessons Learned I
  • Did great, need to sustain and improve:
    • Joint Integration and Adaptive Planning
    • Joint Force Synergy
    • Special Operations Forces and SOF-Conventional Force Integration
    • Mission rehearsal
joint lessons learned ii
Joint Lessons Learned II
  • Did good, but need enhancement
    • Urban Operations
    • Information Operations
    • Intelligence, Surveillance, & Reconaissance
      • enemy perspective
      • tactical bandwidth
      • proper dissemination
      • analytic toolkits
joint lessons learned iii
Joint Lessons Learned III
  • Fell short, need work:
    • Battle Damage Assessment
    • Fratricide (Friendly ID)
    • Deployment Planning and Execution
    • Reserve Mobilization
    • Coalition Information Sharing
joint lessons learned iv
Joint Lessons Learned IV
  • Lower Tier Issues
    • Joint Fires
    • Time Sensitive Targeting
    • Overmatching Strike
    • Training
    • Theater Logistics
    • Public Affairs/Media Integration
    • Shaping Interagency Involvement
    • EUCOM/CENTCOM Seam
joint lessons learned v
Joint Lessons Learned V
  • Insights to future concepts
    • Emerging Battlespace
    • Knowledge-Enabled Warfare
    • Effects-Based Operations
  • NOT MENTIONED:
    • Iraqi incompetency.
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