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Presented by Pat Murphy – Executive Director Community Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387

Plan C – Community Solutions for Housing, Transportation and Food 2009 Viva Verde Expo Silver City, New Mexico June 27, 2009. Presented by Pat Murphy – Executive Director Community Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387. Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions.

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Presented by Pat Murphy – Executive Director Community Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387

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  1. Plan C – Community Solutions forHousing, Transportation and Food2009 Viva Verde Expo Silver City, New MexicoJune 27, 2009 Presented by Pat Murphy – Executive Director Community Solutions (CS) Yellow Springs, OH 45387

  2. Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions • Founded in 1940 to support Small Local Communities • Represents today’s trend to re-localization/localization • Small communities under assault since end of World War II • Made possible by cheap energy • In 2004 began focus on Climate Change and Peak Oil • The factors that will lead to small community resurgence • Humans develop optimally in a place over generations • Our Home Town

  3. New Watchword Needed!1987 – Sustainability, 2009 – Survivability • Three Interrelated Threats to Humanity • Increasing CO2 (From burning fossil fuels) • Threatens life on earth • Shrinking amounts of Fossil Fuels – “Peak Energy” • Implies a declining standard of living • Record Inequity – from cheap fuels and cheap credit • More violence, suffering and alienation • Related to current economic crisis

  4. World Threatened with Climate Crisis • CO2 – 387 ppm; Increasing 2.1 ppm annually • James Hansen’s new theoretical max. – 350 ppm!!

  5. World Facing Energy Decline • Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) says occurred in 2008 • IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 – Acknowledged Peak Oil

  6. World Inequity Highest in History • Energy consumption correlates to inequity!! Ivan Illich – 1974 • U.S. Military predicting perpetual resource wars • Contraction and Convergence – Europe and NGOs

  7. Modern Technology – Problem or Solution? • 10,000 years of Agrarian living • ~250 years of technology living • 65 years hyper-technology living • Modern world is an “energy” world • Technology is limited • Fuel cell car a 30 years effort • Electric cars 90 years old • Fusion 40 years late • Ethanol has not succeeded

  8. Energy sources have major limitations • Fossil Fuels and Uranium Oil and Gas Not enough resources Coal–Tar Sands–Oil Shale Not enough atmosphere Nuclear fission Not enough resources Nuclear fusion Too difficult • Renewables Biomass (burn food for fuel) Not enough air/water/soil Hydroelectric Not enough sites Hydrogen folly Needs energy to be produced Photovoltaic & Wind Power Proven – But will they scale? • Why are there so few options? • Are we at a point of diminishing returns? • Has anything been added since crisis of 1970s?

  9. Energy devices have major limitations • Fuel Cell cars a 30 year debacle • $17 billion spent – few cars • EV a less expensive debacle • Few billion $ spent – 4,000 made • PHEV next techno fix – but just a coal car (no better than hybrid) • And how much lithium exists? • Green Building not very green – Energy Star and LEED • 15 – 30% savings at best: need 80 – 90% • Power plants have changed little – a few IGCC generators • But only a handful built in last 20 years

  10. Three Technology (Societal) Options • Plan A – Black (fossil fuel technology) • More oil, gas, tar sands • Proponents are oil, gas, coal, agribusiness, car companies • Maintain current life style – 90% of population • Plan B – Green (solar, wind, switch grass) technology • Focused primarily on intermittent electricity generation • Proponents are Al Gore, Lester Brown, Environmental NGOs • Maintain current life style – 9% of population • Plan C – High Satisfaction Low Energy Life Style • Focused on curtailing fossil fuel usage • Reduce current life style – .9% of population

  11. Plan C – Curtail Consumption First • Community Survival Strategies • We must cut energy use – fast ! • Cuts must be deep • IPCC: 80–90% by 2050; 4–5% yearly • Take responsibility • Can’t wait for techno-fixes • Our focus: • Cut energy under personal control • House, Food, Cars – 2/3 US energy

  12. Plan C – High Satisfaction, Less Energy A “Community” Context • A “sufficiency” life style • Cooperating vs. Competing • Sharing vs. Hoarding • Saving vs. Consuming • Context where curtailment is not suffering • Happiness in relating, not accumulating • Live simply that others may simply live • Community is a cooperation principle • Capitalism/Competition destroying life • Need high satisfaction cooperative living

  13. Justifying Plan C • “Technology/Science driven” • Technology of depletion – proven by Hubbert • Climate Science – Universally accepted now • Psychology/Sociology – “Bowling Alone” • Ecological Economics • Research in Plan C Intermediate Technology • Buildings • Transportation • Food

  14. “If You Can’t Measure It, You Can’t Manage It!” – Per Capita Thinking • Need to understand energy accounting • EROEI, LCA, Embodied energy vs. operating energy • Understanding aided by per capita comparisons • Country comparisons are always misleading • Media obscures per capita – lets us feel righteous • There are three key “macro” considerations • CO2 Generation (tonnes per capita per year) • Energy Consumption (BOE per capita per year) • Income (PPP) ($ per capita per year)

  15. CO2 – 90% Reduction required for Survival • Per Capita Comparison • 33 most populous nations • 80% of world population • Survival (sustainable) level • 1 tonne CO2 yearly per capita • 4 tonne CO2 world average today • 19 tonne CO2 U.S. average today • U.S. greatest CO2 contributor • 4.5% of world made 27% of CO2 • Need a 90% cut

  16. World Organization by Energy • Rich world is most of OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development) • OECD–L = OECD minus US, Turkey, Mexico (moved to ROW) • U.S. is a separate category

  17. US Energy Consumption Breakdown • Population: U.S. – 300M, OECD–L – 700M, ROW – 5,700M • U.S. Household sector (food, cars, home) • Each sector uses more than total energy of ROW

  18. Setting 80 – 90% Reduction Targets • Housing (15.4 BOE/c) • Deep Building Retrofits – German Passive House as model • ACI’s 1,000 Home Challenge • Cars (13.5 BOE/c) • Smart Jitney ride sharing – shared transit • Metrolite from India • Food (10 BOE/c) • Elimination of fossil fuel based industrial animal products • Change your diet • Eat locally grown non industrial food

  19. #1 Target – US Homes – Size Matters Most • Per capita square foot • 1950 – 260 • 2008 – 800 • New US home size • 1950 – 1,000 sq. ft. • 2007 – 2,300 sq. ft • US residences almost twice as large as Europe or Japan • A cultural issue

  20. U.S. Energy Use in Buildings • 50% of US energy is used in buildings • 40% operating, 10% embodied (building) energy • US has about 130 million residences (80 million buildings) • New building – about 1.0 million units yearly

  21. “Green Building” – too little, too late LEED, Energy Star ineffective • Programs reduce energy use by 15% – 30% (need 80% – 90%) • “Green buildings” are less than 5% of new construction • Would take about 75 years to turn over the building stock

  22. Home Energy Reductions • Easier • Lighting – CFLs reduce energy use by factor of three • Plug leaks: 15 – 30% of heat loss – low cost • Insulate attic – inexpensive • Window coverings – inexpensive and fast • Harder and costly – but with very large payoff • Replace windows • Modify (thicken) the building envelope • Move ductwork into the conditioned space

  23. The Core – A Thick Building Envelope

  24. The German Passive House • Passive Houses use 90% less heating and cooling energy • They have no external heat source or air conditioning

  25. 13th Annual Passive House Conference • Held two months ago in Frankfurt • 1,200 attendees from around the world • 100 presenters • Tours of homes/schools • About 20,000 passive houses/buildings to date • 18 years since first build – a maturing technology • Windows, heat exchangers, insulation, sealants • Achieving the 90% reduction

  26. Challenge – Retrofit Existing Buildings • 1,000 sq. foot. Carriage House • Thicken walls, roof, floors • First floor 4” rigid, 7 ½“ fiberglass • Double wall added – 12’ total • Roof rafters – from 2x4 to 2x12 • Installed a heat exchanger • Replaced windows • A model for retrofitting

  27. Retrofit Building Energy Savings and $$ • Wide range of estimates to redo all homes • 130 million residence @ $40,000 is $5 trillion. • Impossible? Maybe – only 7 years of US real military budget • Or a year or two of bailing out banks ! • Far cheaper than paying fuel bills – e.g. 2008 to 2050 (42 yr) • Save 10 boe yearly– estimate $300 boe eqv. in 2012+ • $3,000 yearly for 40 years = $120,000 • Culture likely to adopt 1950s values – homeowners do work! • Any serious sustainability group must have a retrofitting plan!

  28. #2 Target – The Private Car • U.S. has 210 million cars/SUVs/pickups • U.S. has 30% of the 700+ million cars in use worldwide • U.S. cars/trucks generate 45% of auto CO2 in world • Average American buys 13 cars in his/her lifetime • 75 million new cars and trucks are built each year worldwide • Net addition to world car population – 55 million yearly • U.S. fleet mileage – 21 mpg, Europe 42 mpg, Japan 47 mpg • Replacing this fleet with new cars would take decades • Hybrids less than 1% of cars after 10 years • This is a little known “scale” issue

  29. U.S. Drivers Tend to Drive Alone • Passengers per trip • U.S. Transportation Energy Book, 2008

  30. New Mass Transit Success Questionable Mass transit typically just supplements cars Paris, London, Toronto, New York – high car populations In Europe cars growing faster than mass transit Mass transit overrated (BTU per passenger mile) Private Car – 3,496 SUV – 4,329 Bus Transit – 4,318 Airplane – 3,959 Amtrak Train – 2,760 Rail transit – 2,569 Vanpool –1,294 How much and how long for a mass transit system? Can it even be done in places like Los Angeles?

  31. Efficiency Ineffective – (Jeavon’s Paradox) • Efficiency isn’t the answer • From 750 million 30 mpg cars to 3 billion 100 mpg cars? • 3 times the efficiency – 5 times the number of cars • 1–2% yearly tech improvements and population increase • 2–4% yearly oil depletion rate

  32. What About a Jitney? • A small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule • An unlicensed taxicab • Essence of the Jitney • Snared transit with cars • Not mass transit with buses • Common in 85% of world

  33. The “Smart” Jitney Proposal • Every existing car can be jitney • “Shared transit “ – not mass transit • Made possible by new communications/GPS technology • A software problem – not hardware; All components exist! • Will provide anywhere/anytime/anyplace pickup and drop off • Not limited to tracks/lines/schedules • “Smart” enough to cut transport energy use 75–80% • Status – Operational ! ! ! • Avego of Ireland is first out of the box • Should expect announcements soon in MA and CA • First US conference held in April at MIT

  34. #3 Target – Food • May be the hardest change – behavior changes • But the easiest physically – no new technology • Step 1 – stop eating factory meat and processed foods • Marion Nestle and Michael Pollan • Modern meat generates more CO2 equivalent than cars • Suffering of food animals is horrific • Garden and buy locally grown food • CS has its own garden – supports CSA’s • John Michael Greer – Organic garden is contemporary!!

  35. Local Work in Yellow Springs • Council formed Electrical System Task Force in 2007 • Resulted in cancelling a new $3 million substation • At same time, withdrew from AMP-Ohio coal plant • Council just formed Energy Task Force for long range planning • New home energy audit company • CS received grant for Yellow Springs Energy Partnership • Will review town’s energy use • Different than token sign ups for Architecture 2030 or Kyoto • Must measure usage and design solutions – not easy

  36. Time is Running Out • Peak Oil may have already occurred – July 2008 • IEA November 2008 report – acknowledges depletion • Climate Change is extremely serious – IPCC report “desperate” • Artic ice melt is accelerating • Survivability needs 80-90% reduction of energy use (4-5% yearly) • “Incrementalism is death”.. Stephen Tanner (BioHaus) • No time to hope for “breakthrough” technologies – CCS, PHEV • Must change habits and way of life – become different people • Using intermediate proven technologies

  37. Financial Crisis Creates Opportunity • Financial corporations have defrauded–swindled–cheated us • Will mean cutbacks in energy exploration and R & D • This will end our love affair with corporate America • Important to consider inequity in post great depression period • Up to 1929: Very high inequity • 1930s – 1980s: focus on increasing equity • 1980 – 2008: Inequity buildup as in pre 1929 period • Curtailment will be unavoidable – and that is not all bad • In the depression community flourished ! !

  38. Expect a Community Resurgence • Today is like pre-depression period (roaring 20s) • Things were declining before October 1929 – like now • The financial crisis is a crisis of character • The smartest and the best of us built Ponzi schemes • Consumer debt triggered both depressions • Free Market has become a license to steal • Community provides the alternative value system • Cooperation, not competition • Values of “caring and sharing”

  39. Summary • CS Plan C is focused on Curtailment and Community • No techno–fix will maintain current way-of-life • CS projects are directed at personal 2/3 of energy consumption • Houses, Cars, Food • Working with Low E building organizations – Affordable Comfort, Inc., Passive House Institute – US • Working with Smart Jitney developers in Ireland (Avego) & India • Working with farmers for local food production • Our view – A return to high satisfaction low-e communities • World sacrificed community for consumerism • Horrible mistake – community will be reborn • Strong community means less materialism (energy)

  40. Einstein’s Reminder • “W e can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them” • All our thinking (and values) since WWII has been to consume more • Our current Way of Living (values) is threatening life on earth • Time for new thinking & new values • How about Community? • And High Satisfaction Low–e Living

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