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ICU Course. Dr Fraser Cameron. The State of the Union. Political Crisis due to failure to ratify constitutional treaty (France and NL) Budget fight ($100billion) 1.04% GDP Economy / which model? Anglo-Saxon, Nordic, Rhineland, New Member States

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ICU Course

Dr Fraser Cameron

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The State of the Union

  • Political Crisis due to failure to ratify constitutional treaty (France and NL)

  • Budget fight ($100billion) 1.04% GDP

  • Economy / which model? Anglo-Saxon, Nordic, Rhineland, New Member States

  • Lisbon Agenda (to make EU most competitive economy by 2010)

  • Enlargement – Turkey $64,000?

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EU as a Global Actor

  • Interaction between internal and external policies eg coal and steel, agriculture, environment, internal market

  • Values eg democracy, human rights, death penalty, ICC, Kyoto

  • Neighbourhood top priority

  • EU/US > Friends or Rivals?

  • EU and “effective multilateralism”

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Development of CFSP

  • European Political Cooperation

  • 1992 Maastricht Treaty / CFSP

  • 1997 Amsterdam Treaty (Solana as High Representative)

  • 2001 Nice Treaty (Political and Security Committee, Military Committee)

  • Joint Actions, Common Positions

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The EU and the Balkans

  • 1991 break up of Yugoslavia “the hour of Europe”

  • 1995 Dayton / US settlement

  • 1999 Kosovo / US bombing

  • 2003 Thessalonika Road Map

  • How many countries? Serbia? Kosovo? Montenegro? Croatia, Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia

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Towards ESDP

  • CFSP needs armed forces

  • Kosovo < St Malo Anglo/French accord

  • 1999 Helsinki Headline Goals

  • 60,000 troops ready in 30 days for 12 month peacekeeping deployment

  • Capabilities

  • European defence agency

  • EU/NATO relations

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Enlargement of the EU

  • 1973 UK, Denmark, Ireland

  • 1984 Greece

  • 1986 Spain and Portugal

  • 1995 Sweden, Austria, Finland

  • 2004 Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Czech republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus

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Enlargement (2)

  • Future candidates ; Macedonia, Turkey, Croatia, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland,

  • Western Balkans (Albania, Serbia [Kosovo, Montenegro], Bosnia/Herzogivina

  • Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan

  • Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine

  • Deepening v Widening

  • Can EU cope with 40 members?

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European Neighbourhood Policy

  • Consequence of last enlargement

  • Aimed at creating “ring of friends”

  • East = Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Caucasus

  • South = Mediterranean partners

  • Action Plans ; involvement in EU policies

  • Finance? Institutions?

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The EU and the Middle East

  • EU united behind UN resolutions after 1967 war

  • More willing to see Palestinian view

  • Close but difficult relationship with Israel

  • Barcelona process 10th anniversary

  • Association agreements

  • Security issues (demography, radical Islam, environment, economic failure)

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Transatlantic relations

  • EU and US biggest trade partners

  • $one billion a day relationship

  • End of Cold War changed paradigm

  • Disputes on Balkans, Middle East, Iran, Iraq, ICC, Kyoto

  • But still closest relationship

  • New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) 1995

  • Bush very unpopular in Europe

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  • EU trying to promote regional integration, ASEAN, SARCC, ASEM

  • EU model not easily transferable

  • Differences on sovereignty, human rights, eg Burma

  • Fascination with China; huge growth in trade relations (but US suspicious eg arms embargo)

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EU:Asia (2)

  • EU/Japan Action Plan, what action?

  • Japan perceived as totally in US camp

  • EU/Korea, mainly trade based

  • EU/India, growing fast, recognition of India as regional, maybe global actor

  • ASEAN, East Asia Community, what future?

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The EU and Global Governance

  • EU stands for “effective multilateralism” but what does it mean?

  • Strong support for UN but problem of UNSC, German ambitions for a seat (US only supporting Japan)

  • High/level Panel, many useful ideas eg Peacebuilding Commission

  • WTO / IMF / World Bank / G8< reforms?

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EU and Development Aid

  • EU largest donor in the world

  • Main targets Africa and Asia

  • Special responsibility as former colonial empires

  • Many special relationships eg Belgium and the Congo, Portugal and Angola

  • Good governance key issue

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The EU and the UN

  • EU/UN relations developing fast

  • Crisis management main focus

  • EU very supportive of Kofi Annan’s reform agenda and Millenium Summit goals

  • But UNSC divisive issue

  • Regional bodies in UN system?

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Constitutional Treaty

  • Provides for EU foreign minister and EU foreign service with EU missions

  • Legal personality for Union

  • Structured cooperation in defence

  • Solidarity clause

  • Permanent president of the Council

  • More coherence, visibility, effectiveness

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Member States and the CFSP

  • CFSP/ESDP highly sensitive

  • Unlikely to change to community method

  • Many special ties, different histories, traditions, capabilities, interests

  • But working through EU better than trying to go it alone, slow process

  • Danger of a ‘directoire’ < but ad hoc groups eg on Iran acceptable

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  • CFSP/ESDP very new policy areas

  • Hardly ten years old / political will slow to develop

  • But Solana now widely regarded as ‘EU foreign policy chief’

  • What ambitions for CFSP? Real global actor? Military capabilities? Able to look after own security?