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ICU Course. Dr Fraser Cameron. The State of the Union. Political Crisis due to failure to ratify constitutional treaty (France and NL) Budget fight ($100billion) 1.04% GDP Economy / which model? Anglo-Saxon, Nordic, Rhineland, New Member States

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icu course

ICU Course

Dr Fraser Cameron

the state of the union
The State of the Union
  • Political Crisis due to failure to ratify constitutional treaty (France and NL)
  • Budget fight ($100billion) 1.04% GDP
  • Economy / which model? Anglo-Saxon, Nordic, Rhineland, New Member States
  • Lisbon Agenda (to make EU most competitive economy by 2010)
  • Enlargement – Turkey $64,000?
eu as a global actor
EU as a Global Actor
  • Interaction between internal and external policies eg coal and steel, agriculture, environment, internal market
  • Values eg democracy, human rights, death penalty, ICC, Kyoto
  • Neighbourhood top priority
  • EU/US > Friends or Rivals?
  • EU and “effective multilateralism”
development of cfsp
Development of CFSP
  • European Political Cooperation
  • 1992 Maastricht Treaty / CFSP
  • 1997 Amsterdam Treaty (Solana as High Representative)
  • 2001 Nice Treaty (Political and Security Committee, Military Committee)
  • Joint Actions, Common Positions
the eu and the balkans
The EU and the Balkans
  • 1991 break up of Yugoslavia “the hour of Europe”
  • 1995 Dayton / US settlement
  • 1999 Kosovo / US bombing
  • 2003 Thessalonika Road Map
  • How many countries? Serbia? Kosovo? Montenegro? Croatia, Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia
towards esdp
Towards ESDP
  • CFSP needs armed forces
  • Kosovo < St Malo Anglo/French accord
  • 1999 Helsinki Headline Goals
  • 60,000 troops ready in 30 days for 12 month peacekeeping deployment
  • Capabilities
  • European defence agency
  • EU/NATO relations
enlargement of the eu
Enlargement of the EU
  • 1973 UK, Denmark, Ireland
  • 1984 Greece
  • 1986 Spain and Portugal
  • 1995 Sweden, Austria, Finland
  • 2004 Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Czech republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus
enlargement 2
Enlargement (2)
  • Future candidates ; Macedonia, Turkey, Croatia, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland,
  • Western Balkans (Albania, Serbia [Kosovo, Montenegro], Bosnia/Herzogivina
  • Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan
  • Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine
  • Deepening v Widening
  • Can EU cope with 40 members?
european neighbourhood policy
European Neighbourhood Policy
  • Consequence of last enlargement
  • Aimed at creating “ring of friends”
  • East = Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Caucasus
  • South = Mediterranean partners
  • Action Plans ; involvement in EU policies
  • Finance? Institutions?
the eu and the middle east
The EU and the Middle East
  • EU united behind UN resolutions after 1967 war
  • More willing to see Palestinian view
  • Close but difficult relationship with Israel
  • Barcelona process 10th anniversary
  • Association agreements
  • Security issues (demography, radical Islam, environment, economic failure)
transatlantic relations
Transatlantic relations
  • EU and US biggest trade partners
  • $one billion a day relationship
  • End of Cold War changed paradigm
  • Disputes on Balkans, Middle East, Iran, Iraq, ICC, Kyoto
  • But still closest relationship
  • New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) 1995
  • Bush very unpopular in Europe
eu asia
EU/Asia
  • EU trying to promote regional integration, ASEAN, SARCC, ASEM
  • EU model not easily transferable
  • Differences on sovereignty, human rights, eg Burma
  • Fascination with China; huge growth in trade relations (but US suspicious eg arms embargo)
eu asia 2
EU:Asia (2)
  • EU/Japan Action Plan, what action?
  • Japan perceived as totally in US camp
  • EU/Korea, mainly trade based
  • EU/India, growing fast, recognition of India as regional, maybe global actor
  • ASEAN, East Asia Community, what future?
the eu and global governance
The EU and Global Governance
  • EU stands for “effective multilateralism” but what does it mean?
  • Strong support for UN but problem of UNSC, German ambitions for a seat (US only supporting Japan)
  • High/level Panel, many useful ideas eg Peacebuilding Commission
  • WTO / IMF / World Bank / G8< reforms?
eu and development aid
EU and Development Aid
  • EU largest donor in the world
  • Main targets Africa and Asia
  • Special responsibility as former colonial empires
  • Many special relationships eg Belgium and the Congo, Portugal and Angola
  • Good governance key issue
the eu and the un
The EU and the UN
  • EU/UN relations developing fast
  • Crisis management main focus
  • EU very supportive of Kofi Annan’s reform agenda and Millenium Summit goals
  • But UNSC divisive issue
  • Regional bodies in UN system?
constitutional treaty
Constitutional Treaty
  • Provides for EU foreign minister and EU foreign service with EU missions
  • Legal personality for Union
  • Structured cooperation in defence
  • Solidarity clause
  • Permanent president of the Council
  • More coherence, visibility, effectiveness
member states and the cfsp
Member States and the CFSP
  • CFSP/ESDP highly sensitive
  • Unlikely to change to community method
  • Many special ties, different histories, traditions, capabilities, interests
  • But working through EU better than trying to go it alone, slow process
  • Danger of a ‘directoire’ < but ad hoc groups eg on Iran acceptable
conclusions
Conclusions
  • CFSP/ESDP very new policy areas
  • Hardly ten years old / political will slow to develop
  • But Solana now widely regarded as ‘EU foreign policy chief’
  • What ambitions for CFSP? Real global actor? Military capabilities? Able to look after own security?