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3. The Tshwane Regional Emme/2 Transport Demand Model

3. The Tshwane Regional Emme/2 Transport Demand Model. 13 March 2003. Emme/2 Regional Modelling -Outline-. Available models Interim Emme/2 Model Base Year model results Land use data Trip generation Broader Road Network Planning Modelling results Conclusion and recommendations.

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3. The Tshwane Regional Emme/2 Transport Demand Model

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  1. 3. The Tshwane Regional Emme/2 Transport Demand Model 13 March 2003

  2. Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Outline- • Available models • Interim Emme/2 Model • Base Year model results • Land use data • Trip generation • Broader Road Network Planning • Modelling results • Conclusion and recommendations

  3. Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Available Models- • Premet Emme/2 Model • Study area: GPMC area, part of Northwest & Midrand • 670 traffic zones • Based on 1990/1 O-D survey • Socio-economic data (population& employment) • 1996, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 • Mainly Home-based-Work trips • Educational trips only for Pta-East • Status: Last main Updated 1996/98 • Tshwane Recalibration Emme/2 model • Study area: Tshwane area, parts of NW, Midrand & Tembisa • Based on 1998/9 home interviews, CPTR • Socio-economic date (population, employment and students): 2000 only • Status: Model needs to be verified

  4. Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Tshwane Interim Emme/2 model- • Traffic zones and network: • As per Tshwane model • Socio-economic data: • Base year : 2000 as per Tshwane model • Forecasts : As per Premet model (2005-2020) • Tshwane SEQ: 2000/2001 Plan Associates report • Education : 2000 base year data • Matrix development • Trip generation - Combination of Premet & Tshwane models as well as the latest external traffic counts • Premet trip distribution and model split procedures • Matrix adjustments (Centurion SEQ) • 2001/2002 traffic counts • 2001/2002 Land-use data • Adjusted trip generation rates

  5. Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Centurion expected Land-use data-

  6. Dominant Land Use 2020

  7. Expected Residential Densities - 2020

  8. Expected Non Residential Growth

  9. Expected Residential Growth

  10. Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Expected Trip Generation- * Number of trips during the weekday peak hour

  11. Emme/2 Regional Modelling-Conclusion and recommendations- • Conclusion: • It is evident that the Interim Tshwane regional model can be used with sufficient confidence • A major increase in land-use is expected in the study area • Traffic generated within the study area will increase by more than 300% over the next 17 years • Major road network improvements will be necessary to accommodate the additional traffic • Recommendation • Accept the results from the Interim model as basis for the sub-area traffic model • Apply the sub-area matrices generated by the regional model in the sub-area model • Apply the sub-area to develop a phased implementation plan

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