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Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa. Adrian Stone Energy Research Centre 31st July 2012. Introduction. Work Commissioned by SANEDI SA Transport sector 28 % of TFC. The

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transport sector energy demand model for south africa

Transport Sector Energy Demand Model for South Africa

Adrian Stone Energy Research Centre 31st July 2012

introduction
Introduction
  • Work Commissioned by SANEDI
  • SA Transport sector 28% of TFC. The
  • Bulk (97%) is liquid fuels. This is 84% of national liquid fuel demand. (DoE, 2009)(IEA, 2011).
  • Medium to long term (2050) future trends in demand for passenger transportation - different scenarios
  • Medium to long term future trends in demand for freight transportation - different scenarios.
  • Resulting demand for energy in scenarios.
  • CO2 emissions associated with each of the scenarios?

Transport Sector Model

systems dynamics considerations
Systems Dynamics Considerations

Source: Armenia, Baldoni, Falsini, & Taibi, 2010

Transport Sector Model

multi model solution
Multi-Model Solution

Base Year Time Budget Model

Calibrated Vehicle Parc Model

Baseline P-km, T-km/

Mode-share

3 Income Groups:

  • Average km/h
  • Public/private split

WIDER CGE Model

Projected Income of Household Deciles 2005 - 2030

Energy Demand

Future Year Time Budget Model

Projected P-km

Mode-share

ANSWER TIMES Model

Future FE Assump.

Transport Sector Model

baseline the vehicle parc model
Baseline – The Vehicle Parc Model

Scrapping

Factor

NAAMSA

Vehicle Sales

Vehicle Parc

Model

Enatis Check

Vehicle

Mileage/Decay

Vehicle km

Occupancy

P-km, T-km/

Mode-share

Fuel

Consumption

Fuel Economy/

Improvement

Natmap/SOL

Check

SAPIA/EB

Check

Transport Sector Model

mileage decay still a guess
Mileage Decay Still a Guess

Transport Sector Model

tbm simple principle
TBM – Simple Principle

PKM = Total Passenger.km per year

Fij = Fraction in motion on mode j by income group i.

Sj = Average Speed of mode j

Ti = Travel Time Budget per person per year for income group i

Nij = Number of people in income group i using mode j

Transport Sector Model

tbm salient assumptions
TBM – Salient Assumptions

Transport Sector Model

tbm refinements
TBM – Refinements
  • TBM balances Vehicle Parc Model but Average Speeds seem v. low
  • Even after adjusting mileage & occupancy in the VPM
  • Philip G. measured 41 km/h in Jhb in extensive study
  • Maybe giving way slightly on 1.1 hour justified

Transport Sector Model

some results
Some Results

Transport Sector Model