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Does/Did Our Planet Have A “Fever”?

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  1. “Climate Reality”A Tutorial PresentationFebruary 2010byCharles Battig, M.S., M.D.President, Piedmont ChapterVirginia Scientists and Engineers for Energy and Environment

  2. Does/Did Our Planet Have A “Fever”? • Who has taken the temperature? • Where was it measured? • How was it measured? • Was the temperature record unusual? • Has any scientific study proved a measurable link to human activity? If so, what activity?

  3. What Was The Amount of Global Warming That Was Portrayed As Cause For Concern? Over the 20th century it was a claimed rise of 0.75 Degrees Celsius = 1.8 Degrees Fahrenheit In the U.S. most of this temperature increase was confined to urban areas; matched rural areas showed almost no increase The “Climategate” affair has cast doubt on the validity of this temperature record

  4. “Climategate”:A Betrayal of Trust • Thousands of internal e-mails and documents from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) advisory center… the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of East Anglia University U.K. were leaked or hacked late November 2009 to a Russian web-site • The Russian Institute for Economic Analysis claimed that Russian temperature data had been tampered with to assert far more warming than had actually occurred • Independent reviewers have since found a general pattern of shutting out dissenters, manipulating climate data to fit the IPCC global warming story line, and illegal dodging by a small, politically connected group of climate scientists of U.K. Freedom Of Information Act requests

  5. Hall of Shame, Continued: • Prof. Trenberth: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment (October 2009) and it is a travesty that we can’t”; “The fact that we can not account for what is happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not” • Prof. Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research…lowered temperature blip for mid-20th century • William Connolley, U.K. Green Party activist…since 2003 rewrote 5,428 Wikipedia climate articles , turning it into the “missionary wing of the AGW movement” blocking access to contrary opinions; member of Realclimate.org

  6. Climategate “Science Hall Of Shame” Includes U.K. and U.S. Members • Prof. Philip Jones, U.K Director CRU…resigned • Prof. Michael Mann, Penn State University (prior UVA)… originator of the discredited “hockey stick” graph; under investigation; subject to fraud investigation by US Attorney General Office for possible misuse of public funds • Dr. James Hansen, NASA/GISS…selective temperature sourcing and data “adjustments” producing a warming bias • Prof. Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research; IPCC lead author…promoted unsubstantiated claims of hurricane increases caused by global warming

  7. More IPCC Shame • Dr. Benjamin Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory): lead author of Chapter 8 of the 1995 IPCC Working group report now admits (January 2010) that he alone arbitrarily deleted the five original statements by the scientists in their finalized draft of that chapter which had stated that “there is no discernable human effect on global temperatures”, reflecting his, non-peer-reviewed opinion, and upholding the IPCC man-made climate change premise • The IPCC was created to establish mankind’s influence on climate; not to be an independent climate research entity • “Climategate” scientists appear to have let personal belief and advocacy to taint their impartial scientific analysis

  8. IPCC Melting Himalayan Glaciers 2035 Prediction…Now Recanted • The latest IPCC report (2007) claimed that the world’s glaciers were melting so fast that those in the Himalayas could vanish by 2035 • January 2010: IPCC admits that the claim was based on a single, non-peer reviewed, popular science magazine (New Scientist) article, then quoted by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and not expert reviewed by the IPCC • The author of the article now admits his claim was made to support the politically correct view point of the IPCC • The activist group Greenpeace is now revealed as the source for non-peer reviewed claims of coral reef and Amazon degradation, in that same IPCC report

  9. Headline From U.K. Sunday Daily Mail, February 14, 2010 • Data for “hockey stick graph” has gone missing • There has been no global warming since 1995 • Warming periods have happened before, i.e. in medieval times – but NOT due to man-made changes

  10. More Doubt About IPCC Scientific Impartiality • Railroad engineer, Rajendra Pachauri, has been the chairman of the IPCC since 2002 • During January 2010, reports from Britain and India revealed his ties to a number of energy companies, including The Energy Research Institute (TERI), the Oil and Natural Gas Commission , Indian Oil Corporation, the National Thermal Power Corporation, and the TATA Group, some of which received funding based on these IPCC climate claims • India has announced plans to leave the IPCC and form its own climate panel

  11. Cooking The Climate DataCan We Trust The Data?

  12. Copenhagen December 2009 Climate Conference “COP-15” • A much hyped, follow-on to the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, which covered the period of 2008-2012, sponsored by Club of Madrid, the EU Commission, and the UN, amongst others…attended by thousands of activists and politicians • The original 1997 Kyoto treaty was signed by President Clinton, but he never submitted it to the senate for ratification • The “Copenhagen Accord” calls for no 2020, nor 2050 emission reductions and has attracted few signatories • Political squabbling over wealth re-distribution and one-world governance replaced concerns over global climate

  13. PANIC!

  14. NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN! Credit: Dr Fred Goldberg, Sweden

  15. The Arctic Has Been Warmer In The Past When CO₂ Levels Were Lower Figure by Arndt Bemaerts in “How Spitsbergen Heats the World”

  16. Earlier Arctic Ice Melts Roald Amundsen 1903 USS Skate 1958 Image : US Navy Submarine Laboratory

  17. No History Of “Tipping Points” CO₂ And Temperatures From The Past Slide: www.geocraft.com ,Temp: C.R. Sootese, CO2:R. A. Berner

  18. Global Temperature Record • There has been an apparent period of global warming at an average baseline trend of 0.7 C per hundred years since the end of the “Little Ice Age” (A.D. 1300-1850), although the absolute validity of the surface temperature record is now questionable because of NOAA and GISS “adjustments”, and “loss” of original temperature data • Why did “Little Ice Age” end around 1850, well before the beginning of the modern industrial age and major increases in carbon dioxide emissions beginning in the late 1940s? • Why did the “Medieval Warm Period” occur during A.D. 900-1300 and produce global temperatures several degrees warmer than now, even though carbon dioxide levels were very much lower than now?

  19. Global Temperatures, Past, Present & Future ? It All Depends Upon Your Chosen Starting Point And Time Period Graph: Dr. Syun Akasofu-The Third Heartland Climate Conference, NYC, 2009

  20. The Troublesome Medieval Warm Period: “M. Mann Made” Global Warming? www.wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/08the-medieval-warm-period-linked-to-...

  21. Documentation Of Climate Cycles Dr. Singer is professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia; president of TheScience and Environmental Policy Project (1990); served as the first director of the U.S. National Weather Service; and is co-founder of Virginia Scientists and Engineers for Energy and Environment

  22. The Natural History Of Climate Is One Of Constant ChangeClimate Change Is The Normal State Of The ClimateChange Is The Normal State Of All Life And All Matter

  23. Is There Anything Unusual About The Global Temperature Record Since The Ending Of The “LITTLE ICE AGE” Around 150 Years Ago? • Three similar periods of increased rates of warming: 1860-1880, 1910-1940, and 1975-1998 • In between these warming periods, global temperatures declined at about the same rate, but In the early 1970s, newspaper and magazine headlines proclaimed numerous scientific predictions of a coming ice age, world famine, and deaths; of course nothing of the sort happened • For the past seven years the four major international global temperature monitoring agencies have documented a global cooling even as carbon dioxide increases: a non-correlation

  24. 1900 To PresentA Record Of Cycles Source: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/; www.c3headlines.com

  25. 1934 the hottest year 2009: Another Average Year Data source: National Climate Data Center; Graph: World Climate Report

  26. Thirty Year Satellite Global Temperature Record www.drroyspencer.com , monthly satellite temperature data

  27. Surface Temperature Record Problems • Surface temperature data accuracy susceptible to faulty placement of recording instruments, urban heat island bias, in addition to investigator “warming” bias at CRU, NASA/GISS, and NOAA • By 1990 NOAA dropped 4, 550 of its 6,000 global thermometers, preferentially retaining those in warmer urban sites, retaining only one above the Arctic Circle • Only 3 % of US temperature sites(865 out of 1,221) meet the Class 1 quality rating of the National Administration’s National Weather Service for a technically correct location • Land surface stations can only monitor 30% of the earth; the rest of the earth is water covered • A large number of temperature monitoring sites in Russia have been abandoned; most were in cold areas; their loss produced a warming bias in the world data

  28. A Global Warming “Source” Image: NOAA USHCN COOP Station , Hanksville, UT, Credit: www.wattsupwiththat.com

  29. Different Siberian Tree Core Data,Different Temperature Reconstructions www.climateaudit.org

  30. EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMINGIS NOTEVIDENCE THAT IT HAS BEEN CAUSED BYHUMAN ACTIVITY

  31. EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMINGIS NOTEVIDENCE THAT IT HAS BEEN CAUSED BYCARBON DIOXIDE FROM FOSSIL FUELS

  32. December 24, 1979

  33. Fear Global Cooling, Not Global Warming History of more deaths in cool periods because of disease and famine resulting from crop failures More cardiovascular and respiratory deaths in winter, particularly for women More falls and broken bones in winter More winter related traffic and pedestrian deaths Many climatologists now forecast 20 more years of global cooling, as cooling/warming cycles have averaged 30 years each in the recent past

  34. What Created The Current Fixation With Global Warming And Climate Crisis? • Enron Energy was early to promote green energy and natural gas in the 1990s as a new profit making scheme; coal was an energy competitor and was demonized by Ken Lay’s company • Enron lobbying in Clinton/Gore era • Gore film Inconvenient Truth and “The Hockey Stick” • Earth Day in Rio 1992: anti-capitalists+environmental activists; Canadian oil magnate Maurice Strong • IPCC formation in 1988 and the 1997 Kyoto protocol • United Nations’ One-World-Government Solutions

  35. Global Warming Agenda • Club of Rome: “The common enemy of humanity is man; we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming…would fit the bill” • Prof. Stephen Schneider, Stanford Climatologist: “we have to offer up scary scenarios…make little mention of doubts…decide the right balance between being effective and being honest” • Paul Watson, co-founder of Greenpeace: “it doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe” • Maurice Strong, UN Environment Program: “The U.S. is the greatest threat to the global environment…isn’t it the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? “ IPCC formed to find mankind’s climate impact

  36. “The Science Is Settled” A falsehood – true science is never settled and is always open to a better explanation: The sun revolves about the earth; the earth is flat; peptic ulcers are caused by excess acid; Euclidian geometry; Newtonian physics…all disproved or revised Saying something is so does not make it so; traditional science does not depend on consensus Arguments to authority are not scientific proof A cowardly position taken by those unwilling or unable to engage in open, scientific debate

  37. The Science Is Settled? • January 2010: IPCC contributor Susan Solomon now reports that water vapor levels in the stratosphere had dropped in the past decade coincident with the observed global cooling, even as CO2 levels continued to rise • January 2010: Swiss Federal Research Institute now reports that atmospheric CO2 amplification of global warming is 80% less than previously assumed

  38. Saturated Fat Causes Cardiovascular Disease“The Science is Settled”…Really? • A 2009 analysis of 21 epidemiological studies monitoring 350,000 people found “no association between saturated fat and risk of CHD or stroke” • A 2008 report from the World Health Organization and Food and Agriculture Organization of the US found that “intake of saturated fatty acids was not associated with CHD events or mortality; fatal CHD were not reduced by low-fat diets”

  39. Huge Government Subsidies+Political Opportunism+Commercial Opportunism+Massively Funded One-Sided “Science”+The Rise of “Post-Normal” Bogus Science+Environmentalism Dogma In Place Of Impartial Evidence-Based Science

  40. Dirty Money? Environmentalists claim that science funded by “dirty oil money” is corrupt and to be disregarded, yet: • Canadian oil magnate, avowed socialist, Maurice Strong, together with the U.N.’s Kofi Ann, was one of the founding fathers of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1988 • The Pew Charitable Trusts were founded on Sun Oil money; the Sierra Club receives funding from the Pew Trusts • Standard Oil fortunes funded the Rockefeller Institute • Cities Service Oil fortunes funded the Alton Jones and Blue Moon foundations; the Sierra Club receives funding from Blue Moon

  41. WHAT IS THE GREENHOUSE HYPOTHESIS? • A popularized, fictional allusion to a garden greenhouse although the Earth does not have a glass house roof and walls, but is open to outer space • The Greenhouse Hypothesis supposes that the mixture of atmospheric gases hinders the loss of heat energy from the Earth out into space; that a warmer Earth evaporates more water vapor to the atmosphere, causing more heat trapping, amplifying the small, non-linear effect of carbon dioxide in a positive feedback cycle • Space measurements suggest negative feedback

  42. What Are The Atmospheric Gases? • Nitrogen comprises about 78% • Oxygen comprises about 20% • Greenhouse gases comprise about 2%

  43. Relative Contributions Of The Green House Gases

  44. Man Made Carbon Dioxide vs. Naturally Occurring Carbon Dioxide

  45. What Is The Source For Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide? • Naturally occurring sources of carbon dioxide are estimated to make up about 96% of total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere , +/-186 billion tons • All man-made sources, called anthropogenic sources, are estimated to contribute about 3.25% to the total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, +/- 6-7 billion tons • By taking the 3.25% manmade contribution of total carbon dioxide emissions and applying that fraction to the 3.6% of the total carbon dioxide greenhouse effect, (0.0325 x 0.036 = 0.117%, approximately) one sees that the human contribution of carbon dioxide is responsible for about 0.117% of the total so called greenhouse gas effect

  46. The Expenditure Of Tens Of Billions Of Governmental Funding Has Not Proved A Link Between Global Warming And Man Made Carbon Dioxide • IPCC global temperature/greenhouse gas computer models predict that there should be an increased rate of warming of the atmosphere around six miles above the earth’s surface • Thirty years of satellite temperature records fail to show it---”the missing fingerprint”

  47. The Missing Greenhouse Gas “Hot Spot”All The IPCC Computer Models Predict It;Real World Measurements Do Not Find It • Te Sources: (A) Assessment Report 4, IPCC 2007; (B) Synthesis and Assessment Report 1.1 CCSP, 2006

  48. Real World Data From The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Satellite data from the real world contradicts eleven theoretical climate computer models

  49. CO2 Up, But Temperature Down Graph credit: J. D’Aleo 2008

  50. Misleading Terminology By Climate Alarmists “Global Warming” was rebranded as “Climate Change” to cover warming and cooling events so as to become the universal environmentalism scapegoat The term “Carbon Pollution” was crafted in an attempt to taint life-sustaining carbon dioxide with the image of generic pollution (NOx, SO₂, lead, CO) Since 1980, the EPA reports that emissions of the actual six “principle pollutants” have declined 49 percent Carbon dioxide was not a “principle pollutant”