Overview

1. Bosnia and Herzegovina Between Transition and Consolidation of a Liberal Democracy:First Part: Stakes of the Transition and Democratization Processes.Christophe SoliozThe Watson Institute for International Studies Providence,14 March 2003 Christophe Solioz - March 2003

2. Overview Part One • The complexity and specificity of a multifacated transition process • Dimensions of democratic consolidation • International and domestic dimensions of democratization and transition processes • Rethinking the obstacles towards a successful ownership process Bibliography Christophe Solioz - March 2003

3. 1. Complexity and specificity of a multifacated transition process • A convenient starting-point is provided by Rustow (1970) who observed that democracy and transition are a matter of procedure. Indeed, the change from one regime to democracy is not an unvarying process but a context-specific one: both local and international contexts matter. • “Transition” presumes a developmental view of democracy (Diamond 1999, 16) and is a multifaceted and multistep process. It therefore requires a dynamic and multilevel model. • Transition in Central and Eastern Europe may be best described –in a first approach– as a simultaneous transition process: • From communism to democracy; • From a command economy to a market economy. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

4. 1. Complexity and specificity of a multifacated transition process • Although transition to democracy is both a political and economic process, the two sides do not necessarily move in step. Progress is asymmetrical for a number of reasons, including the fact that the (re)establishment of a market economy can be more rapidly achieved than the dismantling of communist structures of political control. • Vladimir Gligorov (2000) expressed this as a double transition in SE Europe –i.e. as a combination of development and transition; • In Bosnian and Herzegovina, the confusion of these two dimensions contributed significantly to badly chosen external strategies and explains current heavy economic dependence on foreign aid. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

5. 1. Complexity and specificity of a multifacated transition process • Moreover, many strategies had little regard for the specific Bosnian political and economic transition process, as well as in other post-Yugoslav republics. For example, these strategies forgot that in Yugoslavia: • communist rule was not externally imposed but self-driven; • The Soviet-style planned economy progressed after 1952 to a self-administered socialist market system, characterized by the introduction of self-administered rights which facilitated the transformation from centralized government planning. • Zarko Papic (2001) finalized the transition concept, saying that Bosnia and Herzegovina currently finds itself confronted with a triple transition: • From war to peace; • From a socialist economy to a market economy; • From a dependent country to a self-governing state. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

6. 1. Complexity and specificity of a multifacated transition process • The last dimension emphasizes the importance of the international dimension of democratization and transition, and, considering the specific Bosnian case, the transition from a soft-protectorate and aid-dependent country to a sovereign and sustainable State. • Thus, the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina depends largely on: • Country specific strategies; • A focused strategy for foreign partnership and the hand-over of power; • Constructive interaction between foreign actors and domestic actors, i.e. a mutual adjustment process; • The extent of responsibility taken by Bosnia and Herzegovina’s citizens for the transition process; • Successful regional and European integration. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

7. 2. Dimensions of democratic consolidation • Democratization must be understood as a complex and long-term dynamic process with a relatively open-ended outcome. More specifically, democratic consolidation –which focuses on the durability of rules that are the results of the transition processes (Munck 2001)– is a process of interlocking parts: • Structural consolidation (constitution, political institutions, judiciary); • Representative consolidation (through parties and interest groups); • Attitudinal consolidation (specific and widespread support of citizens, culture, etc). • These three levels influence each other through multiple interrelationships. Most fundamental, though, in the consolidation of democracies are political institutions, especially constitutions and the rule of law. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

8. 2. Dimensions of democratic consolidation • Focusing on the creation of governments and / or constitutions, we may point out four main different factors which differ in importance and can be combined in different ways (Merkel 1996): • Historical-constitutional experiences; • Process-oriented explanation; • Action theory; • « Import » approach. • As in other East-European countries, the actor-centered approach explains in the Balkans most fundamental political changes. This approach focuses on the relevance of the present interests of the most powerful actors andf their chances to gain or increase power. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

9. 2. Dimensions of democratic consolidation • Because of the existing diversity in Central Europe, the historical-constitutional and process-oriented approach have limited validity. Nevertheless, they matter for the Balkans, especially for the various post-Yugoslav republics. • Because of the massive intervention of the International Community, the « import » strategies –and more generally the international dimension of democratization– take on a primary role, in the former Yugoslavia in general, and in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in particular. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

10. 3.International and domestic dimensions of democratization • External influences are almost always present in different ways, as: • Diffusion effect (contagion, emulation, desmonstration effect); • Direct assistance (active measures to promote democracy); • External pressures (conditional aid and loans, fulfilling the « acquis communautaires »); • Sanctions (economic sanctions, pressures, political measures); • Intrusion and imposition (foreign military and civil intervention, protectorate). • Before we go ahead, we have to mention that if different decisions had been taken by the International Community by the time of the breakup of Yugoslavia, pattern, timing and course of transition and democratization might well have been different! Christophe Solioz - March 2003

11. 3.International and domestic dimensions of democratization • Forced implementation of new rules, without time set aside for local adaptation and adjustment, is counterproductive. Indeed, the most confident analyses on transition and democratization assess that: • « Domestic factors play a predominant role in the transition » (O’Donnell & Schmitter 1986, 19); • « Democracy must be strengthened and improved from within » (Diamond 1999, 64).  • External influences therefore have little impact unless the local population adopt the transition and democratization process as their own. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

12. 3.International and domestic dimensions of democratization • Paradoxically, external influence may even obstruct democratic consolidation and limit the sovereignty and responsibility of the designated state, in this case Bosnia and Herzegovina; we may therefore describe Bosnia and Herzegeovina as an internationally dependent democracy. • Additionally, a comprehensive approach must incorporate not only the international side of democratization but also the intentions and actions of relevant domestic groupings, as well as the interaction between internal and international processes (Whitehead 2001, 15). • To avoid the failure of imposed strategies and models, it is essential: • To take into account Bosnia’s specific economic and political characteristics, rooted in its past; • To pass responsibility for enacting transition –today in the hands of the High Representative– to Bosnian social and political actors, not foreign ones. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

13. 4. Rethinking the obstacles towards a successful ownership process in Bosnia • Bosnia and Herzegovina is not yet a consolidated liberal democracy. Worse, it lies somewhere half-way between a democracy and an authoritarian regime, in a grey zone characterized by somewhat disquieting socio-economic performances and sham pluralism, only poorly masking the domination of an elite that is partly corrupt, partly incompetent. So, why ? • It is inaccurate to describe the process under way as change at slow pace, or to attribute it only to local obstructionism, corruption, or what Papic (2001) has referred to as the dependency syndrome. • One must also look at the size of the financial engagement of the International Community, which between 1995 and 2000 was some USD 46 to 53 billions. In view of these figures, the cost-effectiveness of the foreign intervention leaves much to be desired, in that this massive financial assistance has failed to give any significant autonomy to the country. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

14. 4.Rethinking the obstacles towards a successful ownership process • We have to reconsider the effectiveness of the intervention of the International Community also in the light of the burgeoning literature on democratization and transition which focused on democratization and transition as a domestic affair par excellence. • Here we have to ask: • Why did this expertise so poorly influence the operations in the field? • Why ended capacity building in the opposite of what it intended? • I have described elsewhere the structural defects of the International Community’s intervention(Solioz 2003). Beyond this, study of the interaction between internal and international processes will more accurately identify obstacles to a successful ownership process in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In a forthcoming paper I focus mainly on state-level analysis. In the following –second part– I will consider the civil society and community spheres. Christophe Solioz - March 2003

15. Bibliography Badie, Betrand, The Imported State: the Westernization of the Political Order, Stanford, Stanford University Press, 2000, 272 pp. Carothers, Thomas, Aiding Democracy Abroad: the Learning Curve, Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999. Diamond, Larry, Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999. Vladimir Gligorov, Task Force on Economic Strategy for South Eastern Europe, New York, East-West Institute, June, 2000. Huntington, Samuel, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Century, London, University of Oklahoma, 1991. Merkel, Wolfgang,Instituions and Democratic Consolidation in East Central Europe, Madrid, Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencas Sociales, Working Paper, December, no. 86, 1996. Munck, Gerardo L., “The Regime Question: Theory Building in Democracy Studies”, World Politics, vol. 54, October 2001, pp. 119-44. O'Donnell, Guillermo & Schmitter, Philippe C., Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democraties, Baltimore, The John Hopkins University Press, 1986 (1998). Christophe Solioz - March 2003

16. Bibliography Offe, Claus, Varieties of Transition. The East European and East German Experience, Cambridge, Polity Press, 1996. Ottaway, Marina S. & Thomas Carothers, Thomas (eds), Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion, Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2000. Papic, Zarko, “The General Situation in B-H and International Support Policies”, International Support Policies to South-East European Countries: Lessons (not) Learned in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Müller, 2001, pp. 17-37. Pridham, Geoffrey & Agh, Attila, Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in East-Central Europe, Manchester, Manchester University Press, 2001. Rustow, Dankwart A., “Transition to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model”, Comparative Politics, vol. 2, no. 2, 1970, pp. 337-63. Solioz, Christophe, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: the Art of the Possible”, Ownership Process in Bosnia and Herzegovina, ed. by Christophe Solioz & Svebor Dizdarevic, Baden-Baden, Nomos Verlag, 2003, pp. 7-23. Whitehead, Laurence (ed.), The International Dimensions of Democratizations. Europe and the Americas. Expanded Edition, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2001. • These and other updated refences on: http://www.christophesolioz.ch/links/democratization.html Christophe Solioz - March 2003