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U.S. Property Underwriters Presentation February 1, 2007. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995.
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CAUTIONARY STATEMENTFOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONSOF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995
Forward Looking Statements - The following presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. You can identify our forward-looking statements by words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “believes,” “estimates,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements relating to ConocoPhillips’ operations are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about ConocoPhillips and the petroleum industry in general on the date these presentations were given. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Further, certain forward-looking statements are based upon assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially include, but are not limited to, crude oil and natural gas prices; refining and marketing margins; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects due to operating hazards, drilling risks, and the inherent uncertainties in interpreting engineering data relating to underground accumulations of oil and gas; unsuccessful exploratory drilling activities; lack of exploration success; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; potential failure of new products to achieve acceptance in the market; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing or modifying company manufacturing or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, transporting or refining synthetic crude oil; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations; potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2005, as updated by our subsequent periodic and current reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K, respectively. ConocoPhillips is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures - This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, as indicated. Such non-GAAP measures are intended to supplement, not substitute for, comparable GAAP measures. Investors are urged to consider closely the comparable GAAP measure and the reconciliation to that measure provided in the Appendix or on our website at www.conocophillips.com. This presentation (Slide 32) contains an illustrative example calculating a measure, "EBITDA," that is not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The example demonstrates a scenario for just one of the many that were evaluated in the evaluation process, and is an estimate of how costs, and resulting margins, could possibly perform at a given West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price. The example estimates the various costs (field operating, natural gas, diluent, transportation) at a $50 WTI example, and then estimates the resulting EBITDA margin that would result from this scenario. EBITDA consists of earnings before interest expense, income tax expense, and depreciation, depletion and amortization. EBITDA should not be considered as an alternative to any measure of operating results as promulgated under GAAP, nor should it be considered as an indicator of overall financial performance. We have included this non-GAAP financial measure because, in management's opinion, it most closely portrays a cash margin, which management believes will be an important measure in an analysis of cash flow consideration for the proposed joint ventures. Since the use of EBITDA is in the context of an illustrative example, a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measure (cash flow from operations) is not possible, as the GAAP components excluded from EBITDA were not estimated for purposes of such example. In this presentation, peer group “non-core earnings impacts” include publicly-disclosed gains and losses on asset dispositions, asset impairments, changes in litigation accruals, write-offs, uninsured losses, and restructuring charges, in each case, to the extent such items are in excess of >$249 million as well as all cumulative effect of accounting changes and discontinued operations, regardless of amount.
Prohibited Terms - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We may use certain terms in this presentation such as “oil/gas resources,” “Syncrude,” “probable resources,” “inventory,” and/or “Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) proved reserves” that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2005 as updated by our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.
NOC reserves(equity access)
Reserves held by Russian companies
Full IOC accessreserves
270 / 12%
157 / 7%
360 / 16%
1,462 / 65%
IOC = international oil company
NOC = national oil company
NOC Reserves (no equity access)
Reserve figures are conventional Billion BOE, 2005 (2249 BBOE)
Source: PFC Energy
Marginal cost is defined as
the average of the highest
cost (or bottom quartile)
Dollars per Barrel
Source: Goldman Sachs
We are responding to these challenges
Creating Shareholder Value
Kerisi / Hiu
Qatargas 3 LNG
Bohai Phase II
Corocoro II & III
Su Tu Trang
Su Tu Vang
Alaska WNS Sat’s
Statfjord Late Life
North America BD
Syncrude IV & V
Surmont II & III
Canada Oil Sands
2006 - 2008
2008 - 2011
Purchased 260 MBD German refinery in 2006, additional investments to increase advantaged crude processing
EnCana JV; investment to expand heavy oil processing to 550MBD with total capacity increasing to 600MBD by 2015
Proposed development of a 400MBD export refinery in Yanbu, targeted production date is 2011
Potential development of 500MBD refinery in Fujairah; JV with International Petroleum Investment Company of Abu Dhabi
Note: Production figures are based on YE 2005 Filings.
COP volumes do not include fuel gas production.
CVX pro forma for UCL.
EnCana and ConocoPhillips are creating a long-term
integrated North American heavy oil businessNorth American Heavy Oil Partnership
Global Crude Oil Supply Resources (Bbbls)Canadian Oilsands – Largest NA Resource
COP and ECA are
Notes: COP includes addition of 50% of ECA Foster Creek & Christina Lake acreage; and ECA is reduced by same amount;
Includes only land associated with the Athabasca Oil Sands Deposit.
Source: Alberta Energy and Utilities Board; and Company reports.
Source: International Energy Agency; Energy Information; OPEC; BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2005
EBITDA margin ($/bbl)*
Participation in both Partnerships provides more certainty in overall margin
*Note: Based on information after all project completions; 2006 $ terms; EBITDA Margin defined as: Revenues – Opex – Gas cost/Feedstock cost – Transport.
Cash & Other
Net BR acquisition
Dividends & Share Repurchases
Capex, Loans & Investments
Uses of Cash
Sources of Cash
Sources of Cash includes the net of cash paid to Burlington Resources shareholders, cash acquired and debt issued associated with the Burlington Resources Acquisition. The Debt Reduction in Uses of Cash is from March 31, 2006.
Balance Sheet Debt $B
Debt-to-Capital Ratio %
* Includes minority interests
supplies for the United States.