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US Property Market Trends: Forecasting Ratios, Rent Growth, and Cap Rates

Discover insights on US property market dynamics, including vacancy ratios, rent growth trends, NCREIF forecasts, and cap rate shifts. Explore the impact of various factors such as treasury rates, property management strategies, and employment growth on real estate investment returns. Gain valuable information on office, multifamily, and industrial markets to make informed decisions in the evolving real estate landscape.

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US Property Market Trends: Forecasting Ratios, Rent Growth, and Cap Rates

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  1. Session 1 | U.S. Property Market Outlook Presented by: Jon Southard, Managing Director and Director of Forecasting

  2. Two Groups for Vacancy vs. Historical Average Ratio – Vacancy to Historical Average Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  3. Same Two Groups for Current Rent Growth Year-over-Year, % Rent Change Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  4. …Creates Leaders and Laggards in NCREIF Forecasts Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors

  5. Cap Rate Declines Ended, but Reversal At End of Five Year Window Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors

  6. …And The Treasury Rate is Why Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors

  7. But Wait, Using A Different Return Approach… Ignores Benefits of Property Management and Trading Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  8. But Wait, Using A Different Return Approach… Ignores Benefits of Property Management and Trading Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  9. For Unmanaged Office, NOI and Cap Rate Increase Mis-timed Index, 100 = 2012Q2 Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  10. Simple Rent to NOI Relationship Index, 100 = 2012Q2 Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  11. …Whereas Multifamily Takes One Punch Index, 100 = 2012Q2 Sources: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  12. Market Strategies

  13. Office Markets that “Give You” Returns 5 Year IRR (%) NCREIF-based Cap Rate (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  14. IRR Looks at Income Return, Rent Growth, and Rent Roll-down Rent Growth Opportunity, But It’s Not Assured Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  15. Can The Tortoise Match The Hare? Office Rent Growth, % Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  16. More Multi-housing Markets that “Give You” Returns 5 Year IRR (%) NCREIF-based Cap Rate (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  17. Multifamily Has No Roll-down Capital Costs or Low Capitalizations Can Keep Off List Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  18. Industrial Markets that “Give You” Returns 5 Year IRR (%) NCREIF-based Cap Rate (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  19. IRR Looks at Income Return, Rent Growth, and Rent Roll-down Rent Growth Opportunity, But It’s Not Assured Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  20. IRR Looks at Income Return, Rent Growth, and Rent Roll-down Rent Growth Is Only Retail Opportunity Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  21. Employment Growth Isn’t Everything Annualized, % Change Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  22. Tech and Energy Are Common Themes Location Quotient = % of Total Emp / US % of Total Emp Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBRE Econometric Advisors.

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