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Velddrift February 3 2011

Biodiversity and Climate Change The case of subtropical thickets and small local municipalities mitigation, adaptation, and resilience. Velddrift February 3 2011. Mike Powell Rhodes Restoration Research Group RHODES UNIVERSITY, South Africa mpowell@ru.ac.za

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Velddrift February 3 2011

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  1. Biodiversity and Climate Change The case of subtropical thickets and small local municipalities mitigation, adaptation, and resilience Velddrift February 3 2011 Mike Powell Rhodes Restoration Research Group RHODES UNIVERSITY, South Africa mpowell@ru.ac.za Ecological Restoration Capital Pty (Ltd) Nollen Group South Africa mike@nollengroup.com

  2. Structure • Climate change and biodiversity loss • Subtropical thickets , restoration, carbon farming and local authorities • Conservation planning and local authorities • Good news • Suggestions

  3. Fundamental Assumptions • Climate change is real, here, and inertial • Habitat destruction is still 1O driver (biodiv) • Ecological sustainability is the mantra • Local Govt is the future • Species (nature) right to exist

  4. Carbon Cycle Petagram = 1015 g WWW.WHRC.ORG/CARBON

  5. Scales and perspective Mortality people per million 0-2 2-44-70 70-120 Patz et al. Nature November 2005

  6. Global Climate Change • Increase in greenhouse gases • Trap solar radiation • Steady increase in mean annual Global T1-6OC in the next 100 years • Change in climatic patterns • Impaired ecosystems and threat to agriculture • Severe threat to global species diversity 12 billion - 2050 – 109 hectares agric

  7. Where

  8. Albany Thicket Biome Data from: Mucina & Rutherford 2006 remnant of widespread global thicket biome – Eocene (Cowling et al. 2005)

  9. ~ 18% of GHG comes from land-use change Data source : unknown

  10. CI Biodiversity Hotspot Mittermeier et al. 2004 www.biodiversityhotspots.org

  11. Pristine subtropical thicket 30% endemism in plants % endemism in invertebrates? Diversity of soil microflora/fauna? 112 distinct subtropical thicket types : Vlok et al. (2003)

  12. Pristine thicket • Vegetation cover intact • Nutrient cycles functioning optimally • Ecological process and evolutionary process proceeding • Steady and reliable primary production (forage) • High plant biomass • High species diversity • High levels of plant endemism • Complex vegetation canopy structure

  13. Arid thicket – 811 000 ha Valley thicket – 587 000 ha STEP data – Vlok et al. 2003, Lombard et al. 2002.

  14. Degradation – 800 000 ha + STEP data Lloyd et al. 2002.

  15. “Smashed” thicket • Vegetation cover largely lost • Nutrient cycles seriously disrupted • Ecological process and evolutionary processes arrested • Erratic and marginal primary production • Low carrying capacity • Expensive to rehabilitate • Canopy loss - harsh microclimates induced • Wind and solar desiccation of topsoil • Eventual loss of canopy dominants • = Total desertification

  16. “Smashed” thicket Abiotic and biotic barriers to natural regenerations

  17. Degraded Subtropical thicket “Overgrazed” – Aucamp 1979, Acocks 1988 “Neglected and abused” – Hoffman & Everard 1987 “desertification” – Kerley et al. 1995, Kerley 1996, “national tragedy” – Aucamp 1979 “unsustainable land-use practices” Kerley et al., 1999 POINT BEING : Still happening today

  18. “PUT BREAD ON THE TABLE” SYNDROME Carbon leakage & Biodiversity loss Where is the compliance monitoring? Where are the advocacy groups? “If you don’t like what I am doing on my farm, why don’t you buy it?” Howard Elliott – Failed Bathurst Pineapple Farmer 2010

  19. Climate Change Adaptation • Biodiversity loss • Soil nutrients leakage • Water use efficiency drop • Carrying capacity loss • Productivity loss • Water table drop • Carbon stocks leakage • Less jobs/ha • Less income per ha • Climate change adaptation

  20. LAND REFORM Carbon equity vs. carbon colonialism e.g. Rockhurst Black Farmers Group in Makana Municipality Ecologically bankrupt

  21. Restoration RationaleWorking for Woodlands Establish Carbon baselines Capture C Restore Establish Carbon baselines Mainstream restoration

  22. Carbon leakage along degradation gradient

  23. Protected Areas and Biodiversity We need intact habitat = we need better land use decision making Corridors and MegaConservancy Networks – Knight & Cowling 2003. Data from: Lloyd et al. 2002 and Lombard et al. 2002.

  24. Bioregional Cons Plans Significant Biodiversity interests Data from: Lloyd et al. 2002 and Lombard et al. 2002.

  25. Provincial Biodiv Conservation Plan Berliner et al. 2007.

  26. Provincial Biodiv Conservation Plan CBA = critical biodiversity area BLMC = biodiv land management class Berliner et al. 2007.

  27. Provincial Biodiv Conservation Plan Berliner et al. 2007.

  28. Should we not legislate that every farm must retain at least 25% of the habitat intact? = “equity” investment from landowner October 2010

  29. Directions: To remove carbon just add water What Ecological Reserve Determination? NB – Wealth Gap

  30. Natural capital and inter-generational equity Replace this with oranges? Irrigate them with water we don’t have…. Send them to China with the end of oil in sight…. Climate Crime????

  31. Suggestions Bundling = carbon equity VCS REDD VCS Spekboom restoration

  32. Local Govt, Carbon Farm, REDD+ real opportunity 1 NBSAPs LBSAPs LEAPs SDFs IDPs EMF Cons Plans

  33. Commonages – real opportunity 2 “Tragedy of the commons” (Hardin 1968) EGS EGS EGS

  34. Good news section! 2400 hectares 30 years contract VCS accreditation CBD + UNFCC + UNCCD Carbon Farm No 1 – Somerset East

  35. Good news section! Carbon Farm No 2? Baviaanskloof

  36. If we are serious about biodiversity conservation in thicket…….. • Farm size, vegetation condition, landuse type • Optimal land use decisions (intergen equity) • Sustainability (monitor, report, accredit) • Empower local authorities • Legislate Conservation Plans • Capacitate and grow NGOS

  37. Suggestions + Buffer Zone Ecological Support Zone (municipal boundary) Urban

  38. Suggestions Pilot small “thicket” city in LAB family Cons NGOs need unity and tackle thorny issues Monitor thicket farm by farm Employ economic leverage (EU, carbon footprint) Challenge water rights and land-use decisions

  39. Thank you Only economists and madmen believe in unlimited growth James Blignaut undated (and he stole it from some other guy)

  40. Acknowledgements: Christo Marais, Guy Preston, Patrick Marsh, Richard Cowling, Saskia Fourie, Ayanda Sigwela, Andrew Knipe, Anthony Mills, Charlie Shackleton, Derek Clark, Brad Fike, EdwilMoore, Yolande Vermaak, Sharon Wilson, Graham Kerley, Aniela Halliday, James Blignaut, Andrew Skowno, Bool Smuts, Rhodes University, Gamtoos Irrigation Board, Wayne Erlank, Wilderness Foundation, Eastern Cape Parks Board, Bob Scholes, James Blignaut, Alan Southwood, Bas Verschuuren, Dieter van den Broeck, Matt Zylstra, Silvia Weel, Earth Collective, and Dr. Mike Cohen.

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