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Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q1 2010. Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC) . Business Optimism Index. The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community

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business optimism index kuwait q1 2010

Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q1 2010

Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)

business optimism index
Business Optimism Index
  • The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community
  • Provides insight into the short-term outlook of businesses on sales, profit growth, investment etc
  • Provides analysis of major trends, outlook and issues concerning businesses
slide3

Survey

  • Sample of business units representing Kuwait’s economy was selected
  • 500 business owners and senior executives across business units were surveyed
  • Survey conducted during December 2009 for the 1st quarter of 2010
  • Respondents are asked questions about their expectations on relevant business parameters
  • Survey also captures respondent feedback on current business conditions
world economic outlook
World Economic Outlook

Real GDP Growth Q3 2009 (yoy)

Global Manufacturing PMI December 2009

Source: IMF

Source: J P Morgan

  • Global economic recovery led by emerging markets such as India and China
  • US economy expanded while Euro zone & UK posted negative growth, if at a lesser annual rate of decline
  • Global Manufacturing PMI indicates renewed expansion across all major economies
kuwait s economy
Kuwait’s economy
  • Kuwait’s GDP to register a growth rate of 3.2% after contracting by 1.6% in 2009; Non-oil GDP to grow at 4.1% in 2010
  • Recovery in the oil prices has helped Kuwait post a budget surplus of US$ 22 bn for the first eight months of the fiscal year

GDP Outlook

Source: IMF

Source: OPEC

business optimism indices q1 2010
Business Optimism Indices : Q1 2010
  • Five out of six business parameters in the non-hydrocarbon sector register improvement in Q1
  • Expectations particularly optimistic regarding New Orders
  • Selling price outlook within the hydrocarbon sector improves after two quarters amidst higher oil prices
manufacturing sector
Manufacturing sector

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index

Manufacturing Sector

GDP

13%

  • Global Manufacturing PMI at 44 month high in December showing renewed expansion
  • In Kuwait, average optimism levels roughly unchanged from previous quarter
  • A majority of businesses foresee improved order book status during Q1 while 48% of companies expect higher profits
construction sector
Construction sector

Construction Sector

Residential construction outlook 2008-13

Compound annual growth (%)

  • Global construction sector currently driven by infrastructure spending as commercial property undergoes correction
  • In Kuwait, optimism regarding New Orders, Level of Selling Prices, Number of Employees and Level of Stock parameters improve substantially in Q1 2010
trade restaurants hotels sector
Trade, restaurants & hotels sector

Trade, restaurants & hotels sector

  • Global trade & hospitality sector is expected to pick up in 2010, but recovery will be slow as consumers confidence remains weak
  • In Kuwait, the sales and profitability outlook has weakened in Q1 2010 while order book expectations and hiring plans have firmed
transport communications sector
Transport & communications sector

Transport & communications sector

GDP

  • Global transport & communications sector expected to witness gradual recovery in 2010
  • In Kuwait, expectations of higher sales lift profitability outlook
  • Meanwhile, a surge in new orders is leading to increased hiring
slide12

Finance, insurance, real estate & business services sector

Finance & Business Services

Global Services Purchasing Managers' Index

  • The Global Services PMI recovery has leveled out following extended recovery
  • Kuwait’s service sector bullish about demand with increased optimism regarding Volume of Sales and New Orders
slide13

Business Optimism Indices Trends : Hydrocarbon sector

OPEC Monthly Basket Price

Business Optimism Indices

Source: OPEC

  • Half of the oil & gas respondents expect selling prices to improve in Q1
  • 60% anticipate a rise in employee count
other key highlights
Other Key Highlights
  • Availability of finance and direct costs cited as leading business concerns by the non-hydrocarbon sector
  • 41% of the business units freeze investment outlays while 38% to invest in business expansion
  • 45% of the business units in the non-hydrocarbon sector expect borrowing conditions to remain unchanged
  • Project delays identified as the chief concern by 69% of the units in the hydrocarbon sector
conclusion
Conclusion
  • Business outlook for Q1 2010 improves across all sectors with improved global economic condition
  • Optimism in transport & communications sector stronger as international trade outlook is expected to improve further in 2010
  • Improving liquidity in the international financial markets lifts optimism levels in Finance & business services sector
  • Hydrocarbon sector optimistic on the back of strong oil prices and improving demand conditions