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Honduras: Vulnerability assessment vs. Vulnerability post-hoc analysis. Tom Downing and Gina Ziervogel Stockholm Environment Institute. Outline. Hondurus: Hurricane Mitch Vulnerability assessments Pre-disaster vulnerability assessments DIPECHO World Bank Oxfam Post-disaster assessment.

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honduras vulnerability assessment vs vulnerability post hoc analysis

Honduras:Vulnerability assessment vs. Vulnerability post-hoc analysis

Tom Downing and Gina Ziervogel

Stockholm Environment Institute

outline
Outline
  • Hondurus: Hurricane Mitch
  • Vulnerability assessments
  • Pre-disaster vulnerability assessments
    • DIPECHO
    • World Bank
    • Oxfam
  • Post-disaster assessment
hondurus
Hondurus
  • ‘Vulnerable’ country
  • Exposure to floods and seismic activity
  • How is its vulnerability measured?  
    • Risk mapping tools
    • How do they compare to what actually happens?
risk mapping
Risk mapping
  • Identifying vulnerable regions
    • Regional
    • National
    • Local
  • Mapping
    • Overlaying different indicators
    • Combining indicators to reach an index
dipecho with cred and cifeg
DIPECHO with CRED and CIFEG
  • Project aim
    • Regional approach to disaster preparedness
    • ‘determine risk levels in the region, taking into account natural dangers and vulnerability criteria.’
dipecho methods
DIPECHO methods

Reports

  • CRED, CIFEG, DHA, IDNDR and other local and European universities

Indicators for hazards     

  • Frequency and distribution of disasters
  • Number of people affected
  • Geological and climatological data
  • Vulnerability indicators
  • Economic loss

Maps to show results

oxfam
OXFAM

Project aim

    • To develop a tool not for disaster experts but for local experts

Objectives

  • To assess risks, vulnerability and local capacity at a regional level and adapted for local-level application
  • To develop the capacity of institutions to tackle emergencysituations
oxfam methods
OXFAM methods
  • Analysis of threats: incidence and distribution
    • Natural
    • Human agency
  • Analysis of vulnerability
    • Relationship between level of risk, local capacities

and living conditions of local communities

  • Analysis of local capacity
    • documented in risk map
world bank with unep and ciat
World Bank with UNEP and CIAT

Project aim

  • To decide where mitigation and reconstruction projects should focus

Methods

Four layers of maps of vulnerability indices and indicators

  • Environmental
  • Population
  • Social
  • Infrastructure
world bank risk map
World Bank Risk Map

LEGEND

Red = Top ten high

risk municipalities

Orange = 10-25

Yellow = 25-60

Risk Map of Honduras – Top 60 High Risk Municipalities

hondurus hurricane mitch
Hondurus: Hurricane Mitch
  • October 1998
  • 6000 dead
  • Damage primarily from landslides and flooding
pre and post vulnerability comparison
Pre and post vulnerability comparison
  • Pre-Mitch: Oxfam/World Bank
    • Most vulnerable on west coast
  • Post-Mitch: World Neighbors/Morris et al
    • Most vulnerable on east coast and southern watershed
other indicators
Other indicators
  • Accessibility – World Bank
    • Important for reaching affected
  • Land use – World Neighbors
    • Sustainable farms faired better
  • Capacity
    • Community disaster preparedness
  • Gender
    • Lower health and educational status
    • Harder to recover
lessons learned
Lessons learned
  • Vulnerability is a complex concept
  • Capturing the dynamics of specific

vulnerabilities is not easy

  • Is vulnerability mapping a useful tool?