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SAME/ACEC Conference

SAME/ACEC Conference. The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance. Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University. June 14, 2012. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions.

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SAME/ACEC Conference

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  1. SAME/ACEC Conference The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University June 14, 2012

  2. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

  3. U.S. Leading Index 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

  4. U.S. Coincident Index 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

  5. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices May-12

  6. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month over the Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted (1000s) May = + 1.8 M Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  7. US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted 000s May = 69 Source: BLS

  8. U.S. Job Change by SectorMay 2011 – May 2012 Ranked by Size in 2011 (000s) Total = 1,782 Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  9. U.S. Job Change by SectorApr 2012 – May 2012 Ranked by Size in 2011 (000s) Total = 69 Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  10. Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average (000s) 374.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  11. U.S. Unemployment Rate % May = 8.2 GI FCST 12 – 8.1 13 – 7.8 14 – 7.2 15 – 6.5 16 – 6.1 17 – 5.9 Source: BLS(Seasonally Adjusted), Global Insight (forecasts)

  12. Oil Prices$ per barrel $/barrel Forecast > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight

  13. Consumer Confidence 100 Expectations Current Situation Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  14. Consumer Prices 2001 - 2017 % Forecast > > > > > Source: BLS, Global Insight

  15. Interest Rates 2001 - 2017 Forecast > > > > Source: Global Insight

  16. U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (000s) (000s) Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) Source: NAHB (New) and NAR (Existing)

  17. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  18. U.S. Economic Performance % Source: BEA, Global Insight

  19. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 % Forecast > > > > > > Source: BEA, Global Insight

  20. The Washington Economy

  21. 2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12.0 % Other Federal 10.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0% Total Federal 39.8% Procurement 19.1% Local Serving Activities 34.8% Other 1.5% Assn1.8% Hosp. 2.1% Health/Ed. 4.5% Int’l 3.5% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  22. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

  23. Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

  24. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Apr 2011 – Apr 2012 (000s) Washington + 34,500 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  25. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  26. Job Change by SectorApr 2011 – Apr 2012Washington MSA Total = 34,500 (000s) Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  27. Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tot 2011 = 688,700 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  28. Federal GovernmentWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tot 2011 = 383,600 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  29. Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  30. Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  31. Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  32. Unemployment Rate 8.3 – DC 8.1 – U.S. 5.6 – SMD 5.1 – MSA 4.0 - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

  33. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateApril 2012 % US 8.1 5.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

  34. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  35. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2015 based on 2012 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 5/1/2012 NOTE: 2011 Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the Mar 13, 2012 published MSA total.

  36. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  37. 2015 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 14.0 % Other Federal 9.5 % Fed Wages & Salaries 9.4 % Total Federal 36.3% Procurement 17.4% Local Serving Activities 34.2% Int’l 3.5% Hosp. 2.5% Other 1.5% Assn2.0 % Health/Ed. 6.0 % Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  38. George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu

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