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### Vertical Scale and Texas Projection Measure

Dr. Stacy Daugherty – Edvance Research

Laurie O’Donnell – Dickinson ISD

Scaling Test Performance

- A raw score is often used as an indicator of a student’s performance on a particular test.
- Example: 41 out of 50 (or 82%)
- Raw scores may have different meaning between two tests if the tests are not of equal difficulty.
- Does 41/50 (82%) indicate the same level of performance on an easy test as it does a hard test?

Raw Scores: Subtraction Test – 4th Grade Math

Suppose Student A gets 4

correct out of the following 6

problems:

1. 13 – 2 =

2. 276 – 35 =

3. 45 – 23 =

4. 894 – 94 =

5. 637 – 16 =

6. 3,962 – 2,241 =

Suppose Student B gets 4

correct out of the following 6

problems:

- 13 – 8 =

2. 276 – 39 =

3. 45 – 7 =

4. 894 – 55 =

5. 637 – 140 =

6. 3,962 – 2,974 =

Question: If Student A and Student B both get 67% correct (raw score), have they demonstrated the same level of learning?

3

Scale Score

A scale score is a conversion of the raw score onto a “scale” that is common to all test forms for the assessment.

- The scale score takes into account the difficulty level of the specific set of questions.

36/50 3750 41/50

Harder Test Form Easier Test Form

TAKS Horizontal Scale

For TAKS, the scale scores were defined such that the Met Standard and Commended Performance cuts were always to same scale values across forms and grades

- Met Standard = 2100
- Commended = 2400

This is known as a horizontal scale

Horizontal Scales

Limitations of horizontal scales:

- Scale scores across test forms can be compared within a grade, but not across grades for a subject.
- Standards (Met Standard and Commended) cannot be numerically compared across grade levels
- Example: 2100 in Grade 5 ≠ 2100 in Grade 6
- It is difficult to evaluate individual student progress from grade to grade.

Vertical Scale

A vertical scale score

- Shows how well a student did on the TAKS - calculated from the number of questions a student answered correctly
- Can be numerically compared across different grades for the same subject
- Changes in a student’s vertical scale scores show academic progress over time

Vertical Scale Score

- Potential score range from approximately 0 to 1000
- Vertical scale scores in grades 3-6 will be preceded by an “E” or an “S” to indicate language

Grade 4 mathematics examples

- E – 562
- S - 585

Performance Standards on Vertical Scale

- SB 1031 required a vertical scale for grades 3-8 in reading and mathematics
- Performance standards were reviewed and some will be increased between 2009 and 2010 to reflect an appropriate increase in expectations across grades
- Vertical scale scores in 2009 reflect the current cut points
- Vertical scale scores in 2010 will reflect revised (higher) cut points

Vertical Scale – Required Adjustments to Performance Standards

- Aligning the current horizontal scale scores (2100 for Met Standard and 2400 for Commended) to vertical scale scores will require the “cutpoints” for “Met Standard” and “Commended” on some assessments to be increased

- Will be applied beginning in Spring 2010
- Will be reported beginning in Spring 2009

Grade 8 Reading Example

- Spring 2009
- Met Standard = 2100
- Met Standard = 670 (previous cut score)
- Spring 2010
- Met Standard = 700 (revised cut score)

- Additional 4 questions needed to pass in 2009

Grade 6th Reading Example

- Spring 2009
- Met Standard = 2100
- Met Standard = 614 (previous cut score)
- Spring 2010
- Met Standard = 644 (revised cut score)

- Additional 3 questions needed to pass in 2009

Vertical Scale Score – Math Example

Uses 2009 standards

Exercise 1 – VS Score - Reading

Hint: Use 2009 standards this year to determine Met Standard.

Spring 2009 Reporting Changes

- Same basic reporting information as past years
- Old scale with 2100 as Met and 2400 as Commended Performance
- Same graph on Confidential Student Report (CSR)
- New Information
- Vertical scores added near Lexile/Quantile scores
- Data file
- Vertical scale scores for 2009
- Vertical scale scores for 2008 (converted)
- Parent brochure explaining new information
- Blackline master information

Vertical Scale(Interpreting the Increases in Performance Standard)

Vertical Scale Score

(Note: In 2010, a Vertical

Scale Score of 670

For 8th Grade Reading =

Does NOT Meet Std)

Horizontal Scale Score

2100 = Met Standard

Vertical Scale Parent Script

Your child received a vertical scale score for both reading and math. This score is based on the number of questions your child answered correctly.

You can use your child’s vertical scale score to compare performance from one year to the next in the same subject area. This score will help you keep track of your child’s progress in reading and math.

This is how we track her progress:

1. Compare this year’s score to last year’s to measure growth.

2. Compare her growth to the expected growth.

3. Compare her score to the performance standards.

Additional information is available on the TEA website.

Computers are available on campus for parents at ….

Which TAKS Will NOT Have a Vertical Scale?

- Writing
- Science
- Social Studies
- High School Assessments
- End-of-Course Assessments

What About Other Assessments?

- TAKS (Accommodated) will be reported on the same vertical scale as TAKS
- TELPAS will be reported on a vertical scale with score range approx. 0 – 1000
- TEA is considering a vertical scale for TAKS-M
- There are no plans currently for a vertical scale for TAKS-Alt or EOC

Vertical Scales

Expected Growth Amounts

Why a Projection Model?

To offer alternative approaches to demonstrating student achievement that meet both state and NCLB goals

How the Projection Model Works

- TPM estimates whether a student is likely to pass TAKS assessments at a future grade – 5th, 7th (writing only), 8th, or 11th
- TAKS
- TAKS (Accommodated)
- LAT
- TPM is based on
- Student’s current performance on TAKS
- TAKS scores of all the students on the campus that the student attends

TPM Content Areas

- TPM will be reported on
- Mathematics
- Reading/ELA
- Science
- Social Studies
- Writing

TPM Predictors

- Uses three predictors for reading and mathematics projections:
- Student’s current year scale score in reading
- Student’s current year scale score in mathematics
- Average campus scale score in the projection subject (i.e. reading for reading, math for math)
- For science, social studies, and writing, add the student’s scale score for that subject for a total of four predictors

Equation

Reading Prediction Equation for next high-stakes grade: (6th grade projecting to 8th grade)

ReadingScore_2010 = Constant +

(Rd-Co * Rd SS) +

(Math-Co * Math SS) +

(C-Mean_Co * C-Rd-SS)

Constant = a value determined when the coefficients are developed annually

Rd-Co = coefficient calculated from prior year’s grade 6 reading scores

Rd SS = student’s current year scale score in reading

Math-Co = coefficient calculated from prior year’s grade 6 math scores

Math SS = student’s current year scale score in math

C-Mean_Co = coefficient calculated from prior year’s campus averages in grade 6 reading

C-Rd-SS = prior year’s campus average in grade 6 reading

Equation: 6th Reading Projected to 8th Reading

Projected Reading Score2010 =

Constant +

(Rd-Co * Rd-SS) +

(Math-Co * Math SS) +

(C-Mean-Co * C-Rd-SS)

Equation: 6th Reading Projected to 8th Reading Equation

Projected Reading Score2010 =

225.28 +

(0.4770 * Rd-SS) +

(0.2511 * Math SS) +

Texas Projection Measure information and resources: See this site for TAKS Mean Scores for campuses and districts

http://www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?id=3688&menu_id3=793

Equation: 6th Reading Projected to 8th Reading

Projected Reading Score2010 =

225.28 +

(0.4770 *650) +

(0.2511 *550) +

(0.0784 *650)

Equation: 6th Reading Projected to 8th Reading

Projected Reading Score2010 =

225.28 +

310.05 +

138.105 +

50.96

724.395

If the projected score is equal to or greater than the Met Standard cut score, then the student IS predicted to meet the standard at the next high-stakes grade level.

Grade 6 to Grade 8 Reading

Note. Grade 8: Met Standard (Reading)=700, Commended Performance (Reading)=850;

Grade 6: Met Standard (Reading)=644, Commended Performance (Reading)=797, Met Standard (Math)=637, Commended Performance (Math)=783

Equation:5th Science Projected to 8th Science

Projected Science Score2010 =

Constant +

(Rd-Co * Rd-SS) +

(Math-Co * Math-SS) +

(Science-Co * Science-SS) +

(C-Mean-Co * C-Science-SS)

The Equation Section is Finished

Work it out yourself or use the TPM calculator link below

http://forwardfocus.pearson.com/tpmcalculator/

Distinguishing Vertical Scales from TPM

Vertical Scales

Vertical Scales will reflect individual student growth from year-to-year

- Student’s previous year performance is significant in fully utilizing Vertical Scales
- Primary use: instruction
- What is working?
- What is not working?

Distinguishing Vertical Scales from TPM

Texas Projection Measure

- TPM is a projection of a future TAKS score based on a student’s current TAKS scores
- Similar to projecting how tall a 10-year old child will be when he/she reaches 18
- Uses current student performance data
- Spring 2009 test results
- Student’s previous year performance is irrelevant to TPM
- TPM formula does NOT include an analysis of whether an individual student made progress from the previous year to the current year
- Primary use: accountability
- Students counted as “successful” even though they Did Not Meet Standard on the test

Which students will have predicted performances?

- Students must have a current, valid score in the TPM projection content area – Reading/ELA and Math.
- Students must have taken TAKS, TAKS (Accommodated), or LAT for all content-area predictors.
- Students must have taken the same language version for all content area predictors.
- To be decided and announced this fall…
- A TPM methodology to allow two different languages in 2010)
- TPM for students who take TAKS-M in grades 4, 7, and 10

Which students will have predicted performances?

Current year Reading/ELA score for TAKS Current year Math score for TAKS

YES!

Current year Reading score for TAKS-Acc

Current year Math score for TAKS-M

NO!

Current year Reading score for Spanish TAKS Current year Math score for TAKS-Acc

NO!

Current year Reading score for Spanish TAKS Current year Math score for Spanish TAKS

YES!

Note: using current information on 9/18/09

44

How will this affect state and federal accountability?

All students who meet proficiency OR who are predicted to meet proficiency in the next high-stakes grade level will be counted in the “Met Standard” group.

Spring 2009

Students who Met Standard in 2009

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

No

No

% Met Standard based on assessment results = 50%

Students who are Predicted to Meet Standard based on 2009 scores

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

5 students Met Standard

+ 2 students who Did Not Meet Standard (but are predicted to)

7 students count as “Met Standard”

% Met Standard = 70%

46

Reporting 2009

- Online reports
- Student level
- 2008 vertical scale score
- 2009 vertical scale score
- Projection (yes or no)
- Summary reports for campus, district, region, and state levels (Expected soon)
- Number and percent Met Standard
- Number and percent Met Standard with TPM
- Number and percent Met Standard or Met Standard with TPM

Vertical Scale(Reading a CSR in 2009)

Vertical Scale Score

Horizontal Scale Score and

“Met Std” Indicator

TPM – Projected to Meet Std

TPM Parent Script

Your child has received Texas Projection Measure (TPM) scores in addition to her TAKS scores. These new TPM scores let us know if your child is on track to pass at grade __ (the next high-stakes grade, and grade 7 Writing).

According to the TPM score on the Confidential Student Report, your child is projected to pass/not to pass. We compare the projected score to the standard for the grade and subject. For students who are not projected to pass, remediation will be offered, such as ….

Additional information is available on the TEA website. Computers are available on campus for parents at ….

Reporting Spring 2010

- For grades 5 and 8, any student retesting will have projections recalculated for all subjects
- Grade 8 science will have a TPM
- TAKS-M students in grades 4, 7, and 10 will have projections

Students Who Retest

- When a student takes a retest, the student’s test score from the primary administration will be used in the TPM as long as the primary test and retest have been administered in the same language.
- For accountability calculations, the TPM from the higher of the two administrations (primary or first retest) will be used.
- Students that retest will receive new projections in all subject areas each time

- Transition Table – divides each proficiency level into three sublevels
- A descriptive transition table that describes students’ progress relative to their progress expectations will be developed.
- Progress targets that require students below proficiency to reach proficiency by the next high-stakes grade level (5, 8, and 11) will be created.

53

Using and Interpreting TPM

Reporting will allow focused interventions by campuses and districts

Four groups of students will be clearly identified:

- Met Standard/Made Growth (Yes/Yes)
- Met Standard/Missed Growth (Yes/No)
- Missed Standard/Made Growth (No/Yes)
- Missed Standard/Missed Growth (No/No)

Using Data from the TPM

- Focus on effects rather than statistics
- Campus
- Teacher
- Interventions
- Look at the efficacy of curriculum and/or instruction

Resources

Texas Education Agency

- http://www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?id=3688&menu_id3=793
- http://www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?id=3818&menu_id3=793

Texas Turnaround Center

- http://www.txturnaround.org/webinars.html

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