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Members: Javeria Ashraf, Muhammad Adnan, Naeem Manzoor Muhammad Zawar , Abdul Ghaffar PowerPoint Presentation
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Members: Javeria Ashraf, Muhammad Adnan, Naeem Manzoor Muhammad Zawar , Abdul Ghaffar - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Targeted Training Activity: El Nino Southern Oscillation Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate (30 Jul – 10 Aug, 2012) . Group Presentation South Asia (Pakistan). Members: Javeria Ashraf, Muhammad Adnan, Naeem Manzoor Muhammad Zawar , Abdul Ghaffar. Study Area

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Targeted Training Activity: El Nino Southern Oscillation Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate (30 Jul – 10 Aug, 2012)

Group Presentation

  • South Asia (Pakistan)

Members:

Javeria Ashraf, Muhammad Adnan, Naeem Manzoor

Muhammad Zawar , Abdul Ghaffar

slide2

Study Area

SST from Nino3.4 Region: 5S - 5N; 170W – 120W

Pakistan: 20-40N, 60-80E

Model Used

CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-CM5

Observation Data Used

NCEP Reanalysis

Hadley Centre SST

Variables

Temperature & Precipitation

Time Period

Pi-control: 1961-2005; Historical: 1961-2005;

Future: 2056-2100; Reanalysis: 1961-2005

pakistan precipitation jjas 1961 2005
Pakistan Precipitation (JJAS) 1961-2005

Control Run

Historical

Reanalysis

correlation between precipitation and nino 3 4 in control historical reanalysis
Correlation between Precipitation and Nino 3.4 in Control, Historical & Reanalysis

Control Run

Historical

Reanalysis

correlation between reanalysis and nino 3 4 historical
Correlation between Reanalysis and Nino 3.4 (Historical)

Correlation between Nino 3.4 & Prec (1961-2005)

enso composites of precipitation
ENSO Composites of precipitation

La-Nina Composite

El-Nino Composite

Avg. prec (Historical)

El-Nino Composite

La-Nina Composite

El-Nino Composite

Avg. prec (Reanalysis)

conclusions
Conclusions
  • CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-CM5 shows consistent results over the nino3.4 region during 1961-2005
  • Nino 3.4 shows negative correlation with precipitation in the study region. For the period 1981-2005, the negative correlation is stronger compared to 1961-1980.
  • Over the study region, observed data shows that monsoon rainfall is suppressed during the El Nino event and enhanced during the La Nina years, this pattern is not same in the model.
  • Surface temperatures over the Nino 3.4 region shows a clear increasing trend in the future (2056-2100)
  • RCP8.5 shows increase in temperatures over the study region, the increase is higher in the northern areas. The model shows increase in precipitation over the major part of the country, but decrease in the northern parts.