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Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research Jin Huang Deputy Director

NOAA. Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research Jin Huang Deputy Director Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program Climate Program Office. WGNE-26/GMPP-12 Tokyo, Japan October 18, 2010. NOAA’s Climate Program Office. National Ocean Service (NOS).

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Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research Jin Huang Deputy Director

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  1. NOAA Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research Jin Huang Deputy Director Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program Climate Program Office WGNE-26/GMPP-12 Tokyo, Japan October 18, 2010

  2. NOAA’s Climate Program Office National Ocean Service (NOS) Climate Program Office Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) National Weather Service (NWS) National Environmental Satellite, Data & Information Service (NESDIS)

  3. A Strategic Approach to Climate Programs NOAA Labs & Centers Strategic linkages Strategic linkages NOAA Climate Program Office External institutional relationships Competitive Grants Strategic linkages • CPOintegratesand coordinates Federal, academic, private, and international partners into acomprehensive, strategic approachto providing climate research and services for the nation.

  4. CPO Grant Programs

  5. Select CPO Funding Opportunities FY2011

  6. Transitioning to the Climate Service

  7. Proposed Climate Service

  8. NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan • Long-term goal: Climate Adaptation and Mitigation • OBJECTIVES (in review) • Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts • Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions • Mitigation and adaptation choices supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services • A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions

  9. Climate Service: Vision and Mission • Vision Statement • By providing science and services, the NCS envisions an informed society capable of anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts • Mission Statement • Improve understanding and prediction of changes in climate and promote a climate-resilient society

  10. Climate Service: Core Capabilities Address Societal Challenges

  11. U.S. Climate Modeling Initiatives • U.S. Global Change Research Program • Developing new strategic plan to replace current (2003) one • emphasis on end-to-end • outreach activities to seek input over next year • Establishing a working group on modeling • co-chaired by NOAA, NSF, and DOE • Earth System Prediction Capability • Workshop held 7-10 September to: • establish initial vision and goals for a program to collaborate on the development and operational implementation of a national ESPC: aspirational goal=0 days to 30 years • identify scientific and technical challenges • U.S. agency participants: Navy, NOAA, NASA, DOE, plus university observers

  12. U.S. Climate Modeling Initiatives (cont.) • National Academy of Sciences/BASC study on “A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling” • High-level analysis to develop a strategic framework for improving U.S. capability to simulate climate and related Earth system changes on decadal to centennial time scales • Intended audience: researchers, federal agencies, national decision makers, and others to develop a shared vision of what the ‘next generation’ of climate models should look like • Two-year study; committee now being formed • Funded by Intelligence Community, DOE, NOAA, Navy, NASA • Related Activities • WCRP-UNESCO Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events [27-29 September 2010, Paris] • How well do climate models reproduce past extreme events? • How well do operational models predict extreme events? • What climate model output should be archived to assess the likelihood of future extreme events?

  13. Goal: to accelerate development of global climate models and reduce uncertainties by bringing together theoreticians, field program scientists, process modelers, and modeling centers. • NOAA and NSF funded four CPTs for FY10-12: • Bretherton, Teixeira, Mechoso, Park (NCAR), Pan (NCEP), and Klein (LLNL): Improving the representation of the stratocumulus to cumulus transition in climate models • Larson, Donner (GFDL), Golaz, and Ming: Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to indirect effect • MacKinnon and Hallberg (GFDL): Representing internal-wave driven mixing in global ocean models • Jin and Hallberg (GFDL): Ocean mixing processes associated with high spatial heterogeneity in sea ice and the implications for climate models Climate Process Teams

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