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Japan National Report By Masa KAMACHI & Tsohiyuki Awaji

Japan National Report By Masa KAMACHI & Tsohiyuki Awaji. Outline 1. Member systems of Japan GODAE 2. MOVE/MRI.COM 3. K-7 4. Impact to NWP (Kyushu Univ. and JMA) Action 7. Systems of Japan GODAE members. See Table. Progress in 2006-2007: 1. JMA-MRI

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Japan National Report By Masa KAMACHI & Tsohiyuki Awaji

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  1. Japan National Report By Masa KAMACHI & Tsohiyuki Awaji Outline 1. Member systems of Japan GODAE 2. MOVE/MRI.COM 3. K-7 4. Impact to NWP (Kyushu Univ. and JMA) Action 7

  2. Systems of Japan GODAE members See Table Progress in 2006-2007: 1. JMA-MRI JMA’s new operational system MOVE (from 2008/04) Reanalysis ver.2: G:1948-2006+, WNP: 1985-2006+ OSE/OSSE: TAO/Triton, Argo, SSH, SV-adjoint sensitivity Impact to NWP: Boundary condition for a Typhoon coupled model Coastal application (Japan Weather Association) 2. Kyoto-FRCGC (former K-7): 90’s reanalysis coastal operation system development Backward trajectory (atmospheric humidity) 3. Kyushu Univ. (RIAMOM): Operation in Fisheries Agency (Japan Sea) 4. FRCGC JCOPE: Operation in Fisheries Agency (Kuroshio-Oyashio)

  3. 2. Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation (MOVE/MRI.COM) System in JMA/MRI: Masa KAMACHI Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute

  4. MOVE/MRI.COM system • MRI MOVE/MRI.COM (Multivariate Ocean Variational Estimation) system uses three dimensional Variational (3D-VAR) method with vertical coupled T-S Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) modal decomposition with area partition. • Obs. Data: Sat-Alt, SST, in situ T & S (e.g., ship, ARGO, Tao/Triton) • Aims • Opt. Init. Cond. for Forecasting (Seasonal-Interannual (ElNino), Ocean state around Japan) • Reanalysis: • Western North Pacific : 1992-2006+ • (1985-2007+) • North Pacific : 1960-2006+ • Global : 1949-2006+

  5. Three OGCMs (Double Nesting) -> see System Description Global Model-1 : (1°×1°:1/3° tropical region, 54 Layer) Nested-1 Model-2： 15S-65N, 100E-75W ( 0.5°×0.5°, 54 Layer) Nested-2 Model-3： 15N-65N, 115E-160W (0.1°×0.1°, 54 Layer) Usui et al. （2005)

  6. Schematic Diagram of MOVE/MRI.COM (Operation in JMA) * Initial Condition Atmos. Forcing Satellite Observation GTS Argo Domestic Org. OGCM (MRI.COM) Quality Control Climatology Predicted Field In Situ T,S SST Analysis Satellite Altimetry (SST) Weighted Average Optimal Analysis(3D-VAR) First Guess B:T-S EOF Analysis Field Analysis Increment Atmos. Forcing (IAU) OGCM (MRI.COM) Initial Condition Present Ocean (Assimilated) Field Ocean Forecasting Next Assimilation Cycle*

  7. Zonal volume transport (Sv) for (a) the layer with< 24.3 (kg/m3) and (b) the layer with 24.4< < 26.5 (kg/m3) Velocity Field (Argo salinity impact) 1993-2001 mean Cf. Johnson et al., (2000) Eq-140W Sep96-Aug01 mean Tao Without S-corection With S-correction (a) (b)

  8. Usui et al. (2005) ASUKA-line Example of Reanalysis Product : 1993-2004Transport of Current System around Japan Assim : 40Sv Obs : 42Sv PN-line Mean volume transport (arrow) of current system sea around Japan (unit is Sv). Mean sea surface height is also shown (contour line : c.i. is 10 cm). OK-line • The volume transport in the East China Sea is 25 Sv at PN line and its variation is small. • Ryukyu Current System has a transport from 6 Sv east of Taiwan to 17 Sv east of Amami, and increase of the transport is probably supplied by the Kuroshio recirculation flow (see around OK line). • The eastward transport at the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition area east of Japan has 41 Sv (32º-36ºN) and 12 Sv (36º-39ºN). • Oyashio has 14 Sv southward in the nearshore and 11 Sv northward transport crossing OICE line, and seasonal variation shows maximum in winter. OICE-line (northeastward transport) (southwestward transport)

  9. BLT (1949-2006 Eq. Pac. BLT (color), SST (29.0deg., black line), SSS (35.0psu, white line)

  10. Mesoscale eddy and water mass (2000/10, vertical section along 144E) North Pacific Intermediate Water Salinity-min. （165E，2000/4 and 9） Examples of Water Mass in the North Pacific Kuroshio (subtropical) and Oyashio (subpolar) waters 2000/9 2000/4 Assim Independent Obs. Temperature Salinity

  11. Water Type (Mean value in 1949-2005 vs. Climatology) Take mean in time -> Take mean in each region and on each density surface Emery 2001 ENPTW: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Water ESPTW: South ENPCW: Eastern North Pacific Central Water WNPCW: Western PEW: Pacific Equatorial Water ESPCW: Eastern South Pacifc Central Water WSPCW: Western

  12. Future Plan for Coastal: MOVE/MRI.COM-C Present systems Future Plan Global Warming, SI-predictions (Global, 1 ˚) Ocean Climate: (N. Pac, 1/2˚） Ocean Weather （W.N. Pac, 0.1˚） Global:1 /12˚(10km) Local weather-climate model (strong currents, Frontal structure) Finer resolution (x6) Regional:1 /60˚（2km） Coastal ocean (High tide forecasting for disaster prevention) nesting Coastal:1 /120˚（1km） Typhoon 23, in Aug 30, 2004 Regional（1/10˚[11km]） （Forecasting around Japan） ARGO float assimilation Forecasting of 2004 Kuroshio Large Meander

  13. Toshiyuki Awaji Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Department of Geophysics, School of Science, Kyoto University 3. Four-Dimensional Variational Coupled DataAssimilation by Kyoto-FRCGC (former K-7) Members: N. Sugiura, S. Masuda, T. Mochizuki, T. Miyama, H. Igarashi, N. Ishida, T. Toyoda (JAMSTEC) K. Horiuchi, H. Hiyoshi (AESTO), N. Komori (JAMSTEC/Earth Simulator Center) Yoichi Ishikawa (Kyoto Univ.）,Masa Kamachi(JMA-MRI) 2006-2007 progress CDA for 90’s Reanalysis “K7” is the symbolic name of Category 7 of MEXT’s Research Revolution 2002 (RR2002) Project Using the Earth Simulator (called “KYOUSEI 7” in Japanese) IGST 200708

  14. Experimental Settings • Coupled Model on ES (CFES): • T42L24 AFES for AGCM(originally CCSR/NIES AGCM and then improved: e.g.: new radiation code MstrnX [Nakajima et al. 2000] and diagnostic code of marine stratocumulus [Mochizuki et al. 2006] ) • 1x1deg L36 MOM3 for OGCM • Canopy type Model for Land (MATSIRO) • IARC Sea-Ice Model • No flux correction between different spheres • Assimilation Method: 4DVAR • Adjoint OGCM and adjoint AGCM are coupled • Assimilation Window • Climatological seasonal exp.: 1 year window (using 1-month OBS data) • 1996,97,98 (3-year-long specific) reanalysis exp.: a sequence of 9-month window (using series of 10-day means of OBS data) and 11ensemble experiments were conducted to cope with weather modes • Major Assimilated Elements • Atmosphere: NCEP’s BUFR data and SSM/I sea wind • Ocean: WOA data, T/P altimeter data, FNMOC dataset, OISST values, and ARGO float data from the Coriolis Data Center • Diagnostic Run: First guess field • 20-yr free integration of CGCM (or OGCM) IGST 200708

  15. SST variation in the equatorial region in CDA Simulation Assimilation Reynolds SST • 97-98 ENSO event is well reproduced in the assimilation field. Data delivery: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/k7-dbase2/ IGST 200708

  16. WWB events become to occur realistically by CDA procedure. Correction of Westerly Wind Burst by CDA Simulation Assimilation NCEP IGST 200708

  17. Ensemble 4DVAR runs show the Implication to enhanced predictability Thus the subsequent 15-month “pure” forecast with the adjusted ocean initial condition : conducted 15-month “pure” prediction 9-month assimilation Half year-period 4DVAR initialization is underway towards 1-year-longer lead prediction of EL NINO Predictabilitycontinues beyond the assimilation period IGST 200708

  18. Results of the inner model (SST) 2002 Jun. - Aug. observation model result

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