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Voting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Voting

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  1. Voting The Election of 2008 and 2010

  2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Monday 10-2 • And by appointment • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes I • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. Readings • Exam 1 Study Guide • Exam 1 is Feb 12th

  5. The Revised Michigan Model

  6. What it Looks Like

  7. Social Characteristics • Many cross-cutting factors • Help shape our Party ID • Are at the top of the funnel

  8. A Long Term Factor Party ID

  9. Partisanship • Long Term Factor • Best Predictor of Voting • Influences other short-term factors

  10. 2008 Vote by Party ID

  11. Ideology Doesn’t Rock

  12. What about Independents • Pure Independents vs. Leaners • Independents go for Obama

  13. A Long Term Factor SES and Group Factors

  14. Group Voting • What makes a group important? • The Democrats think more in group terms

  15. Four Groups that Made a difference in 2008 • African Americans • Latinos • Young Voters • Highly educated voters

  16. Race and ethnicity

  17. African American vote in 2008 • Compared to 2004 • Higher Turnout • More Democratic • Why African Americans Were Important

  18. Hispanic Voters • The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity • Increasingly Democratic since 2000 • Key in CO, FL, NM

  19. Race and Vote in 2008

  20. A Long Term Factor Age

  21. Young Voters in 2008 • 2-1 For Obama • Why • What about other Age Groups

  22. Age and Vote 2008

  23. SES Long Term Factor education

  24. Education in 2008 • A curvilinear relationship • Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum

  25. Education and Vote

  26. Religion

  27. Identification vs. Behavior • Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice • Religious activity is a much better predictor

  28. Church Attendance and Vote

  29. Who you are • Jewish voters • Catholics

  30. Vote By Religion- 2008

  31. Gender

  32. Gender and Marriage • The Gender Gap • Why?

  33. Gender in 2008

  34. Marriage • Married People vote Republican • Singles vote Democratic

  35. Marital Status

  36. Decline of Security Moms

  37. Short Term Factors Issues, Candidates & Image

  38. Candidate Evaluations vs. Issues

  39. Short Term Factor 1 Issues

  40. Issue voting is difficult • We don’t trust or understand policy • Conditions for issue voting

  41. The Reality of Issue Voting • We are clueless • Projection • Adoption • Too many issues

  42. Most Important Issues

  43. The Big One Economic issues

  44. The Economy • The events of 9/14

  45. Retrospective Analysis • Looking back at the economy • Easier to do if there is an incumbent

  46. Prospective Analysis

  47. Economics

  48. Economics

  49. Economics