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Voting. The Election of 2008 and 2010. Office Hours. When Today- 11-2 Monday 10-2 And by appointment Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes I. Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

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The Election of 2008 and 2010

office hours
Office Hours
  • When
    • Today- 11-2
    • Monday 10-2
    • And by appointment
  • Doyle 226B
learning outcomes i
Learning Outcomes I
  • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
  • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice
  • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
  • Exam 1 Study Guide
  • Exam 1 is Feb 12th
social characteristics
Social Characteristics
  • Many cross-cutting factors
  • Help shape our Party ID
  • Are at the top of the funnel
  • Long Term Factor
  • Best Predictor of Voting
  • Influences other short-term factors
what about independents
What about Independents
  • Pure Independents vs. Leaners
  • Independents go for Obama
group voting
Group Voting
  • What makes a group important?
  • The Democrats think more in group terms
four groups that made a difference in 2008
Four Groups that Made a difference in 2008
  • African Americans
  • Latinos
  • Young Voters
  • Highly educated voters
african american vote in 2008
African American vote in 2008
  • Compared to 2004
    • Higher Turnout
    • More Democratic
  • Why African Americans Were Important
hispanic voters
Hispanic Voters
  • The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity
  • Increasingly Democratic since 2000
  • Key in CO, FL, NM
young voters in 2008
Young Voters in 2008
  • 2-1 For Obama
  • Why
  • What about other Age Groups
education in 2008
Education in 2008
  • A curvilinear relationship
  • Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum
identification vs behavior
Identification vs. Behavior
  • Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice
  • Religious activity is a much better predictor
who you are
Who you are
  • Jewish voters
  • Catholics
gender and marriage
Gender and Marriage
  • The Gender Gap
  • Why?
  • Married People vote Republican
  • Singles vote Democratic
short term factors

Short Term Factors

Issues, Candidates & Image

issue voting is difficult
Issue voting is difficult
  • We don’t trust or understand policy
  • Conditions for issue voting
the reality of issue voting
The Reality of Issue Voting
  • We are clueless
  • Projection
  • Adoption
  • Too many issues
the economy
The Economy
  • The events of 9/14
retrospective analysis
Retrospective Analysis
  • Looking back at the economy
  • Easier to do if there is an incumbent
the war in iraq
The War in Iraq
  • No longer the salient Issue of the election
  • Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds
  • Obama could claim opposition from day 1
health care
Health Care
  • Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem)
energy policy
Energy Policy
  • One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin
  • Never panned out as an issue
  • Cheap oil throughout the fall
  • No One cared
  • Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue
candidate image
Candidate Image
  • Try to create your own
  • Use issues to your advantage
  • Don’t Let the Media create one for you
hope and change
Hope and Change
  • A message that worked
  • It meant everything and nothing at the same time
party image1
Party Image
  • Impacts our views of the candidate
  • Very important for prospective voting
  • McCain has a terrible party image
mccain vs bush
McCain Vs. Bush
  • In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush
  • In reality no way to distance himself from Bush