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BAQ 2006 Yogyakarta, Indonesia Michael P. Walsh International Consultant, Board Chairman ICCT

The Co-Benefits of Reducing Vehicle Emissions: Improved Urban Air Quality and Reduced Global Warming. BAQ 2006 Yogyakarta, Indonesia Michael P. Walsh International Consultant, Board Chairman ICCT. One Billion Motorized On Road Vehicles This Year!. Most of These Vehicles Are In Cities.

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BAQ 2006 Yogyakarta, Indonesia Michael P. Walsh International Consultant, Board Chairman ICCT

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  1. The Co-Benefits of Reducing Vehicle Emissions: Improved Urban Air Quality and Reduced Global Warming BAQ 2006 Yogyakarta, Indonesia Michael P. Walsh International Consultant, Board Chairman ICCT

  2. One Billion Motorized On Road Vehicles This Year!

  3. Most of These Vehicles Are In Cities

  4. Greenhouse Gases - CO2, methane Haze Ozone (ROG + NOx) Particles (PM10/PM2.5) Toxics (NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia) - Diesel particles - Benzene - Chromium - Asbestos And They Emit A Variety of Pollutants That Are of Concern Carbon monoxide (CO)

  5. Secondary Transformations Can Be Subtle But Very Significant!Urban Air Pollution & Global Warming Are Linked • HC + NOx Lead To Regional Ozone But Also to Background Hemispheric Ozone • CO Becomes CO2 but Consumes OH Radicals Along the Way Increasing CH4 • Diesel PM Increases PM10 & PM2.5 & Ultrafine PM But Also Black Carbon

  6. Here in Asia We Have Some Especially Polluting Vehicles

  7. Urban Air Pollution is Very SeriousPM10 Annual Ambient Concentrations in Asian Cities (2005) WHO 2005 Guideline Value for Annual Average of PM10 = 20 µg/m3

  8. Ozone in Beijing is Worsening

  9. The Greenhouse Effect is Getting Increasing Attention

  10. Appropriately!!!

  11. The Consequences Could Be Staggering

  12. Urban Air Pollution & Global Warming Are Linked

  13. CO2 Gets The Most Attention and This Remains A Very Serious Challenge EU missing target? Source: Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and GHG Emission Standards around the World, by Feng An and Amanda Sauer, Report for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

  14. Transportation is the Fastest Growing CO2 Emissions Source

  15. But CO2 Is Not The Only Cause

  16. The Vehicle Population in Asia is Growing Very Rapidly

  17. Clean Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks and Buses Are Rapidly Entering the Marketplace – Clean Fuel is Key ICCT Is Actively Encouraging Global Harmonization of HD Regulation To The Most Stringent Levels

  18. Worldwide Motorcycle Emission Regulations Japan China II Stage (2004) ECE40 HC: 1.2 NOx:0.3 CO: 5.5 10,000 km (2006/2007) ECE40 Cold Start HC: 0.3/0.5 NOx:0.15 CO: 2.0 12,000/24,000 km Europe EU II (2003) ECE40 Cold Start HC: 1.0 NOx:0.3 CO: 3.0 Taiwan India IV Stage (2004) ECE40 Cold Start HC+NOx:2.0 CO: 7.0 15,000 km II Stage (2005) IDC Cold Start HC+NOx:1.5 CO: 1.5 30,000 km EU III (2006) HC: 0.8 NOx:0.15 CO: 2.0 30,000 km III Stage (2008) HC+NOx:1.0~1.25 CO: 1.0~1.25

  19. Technologies That Reduce Methane or Nitrous Oxide • Relatively high global warming potential compared to carbon dioxide • Catalyst modifications have been demonstrated that reduce methane emissions • Nitrous oxide emissions may also be reduced through catalyst modifications

  20. Technologies That Reduce HFC Emissions • Better materials and fittings can reduce leakage • (50% Reduction Possible) • Alternative refrigerants with lower global warming potential • R152a, CO2 • (90 % Reduction Possible) • Variable displacement compressors reduce system energy requirements, leading to lower CO2 emissions

  21. Two Scenarios • Business As Usual • Currently Adopted or Soon To Be adopted Emissions Standards • Industrialized Countries HFC Control • 50% by 2015 • 90% by 2020 • More Aggressive Standards • RICs on par with industrialized by 2015 • Developing on par by 2020 • VMT Held Constant in Both (WBCSD) No TCMs

  22. Issues/ConclusionsAction Agenda • Technical Solutions to Conventional Pollution & Non CO2 Greenhouse Gases Are Available and Just Need To Be Applied & Accelerated in Developing World • Carbon Dioxide Remains Difficult Issue But Not Because Technical or Policy Options Are Not Available • GHG Standards Should Be Mandated For All Vehicle Categories • Pushing The Technology Envelope • Providing Sufficient Lead Time • Fuels Technologies May Have Important Role • Aircraft & Marine Need To Be Addressed • Transportation Controls, BRT systems, etc Also Need To Be Part of the Solution

  23. Santa Claus Is Not Coming To Town

  24. Perhaps This Is The Wisest Use of Cars After All!

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