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Sequential Analysis

Sequential Analysis. Team: The Authors. Purpose. Apply test for trial completion to each sample taken in sequence. Applies only if the characteristics of the new distribution are known or can be estimated. Provides minimum possible sample count to satisfy the trial requirements.

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Sequential Analysis

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  1. Sequential Analysis Team: The Authors Case 16 Example

  2. Purpose • Apply test for trial completion to each sample taken in sequence. • Applies only if the characteristics of the new distribution are known or can be estimated. • Provides minimum possible sample count to satisfy the trial requirements. Case 16 Example

  3. Trial Satisfaction Criteria • Confidence levels • Against false negatives, 80% • Against false positives, 90% • Weibull distribution parameters • Old distribution, 5 and 30 • New distribution, 5 and 40 Case 16 Example

  4. The Distributions Case 16 Example

  5. Sequential Results Case 16 Example

  6. Analysis • Test is conclusive after five samples. • Test result: • Reject the null hypothesis. • Accept that the new distribution is different from the old distribution. Case 16 Example

  7. Validation of Weibull Parameters • 13 of the new batteries, 65%, exceed lifetime of 40 days. • Vendor’s parameters are conservative. • Indicated parameter is ~42, which is better than vendor’s 40. Case 16 Example

  8. Impact of Lost Data • Postulate two lost at Day 35 • To model: • Drop the best two. • Repeat the analysis. Case 16 Example

  9. Results with Two Lost Case 16 Example

  10. Conclusion re Two Lost • Dropping two units at day 35 has no impact on the prior conclusions. Case 16 Example

  11. Recommendations • Accept the new battery for general use. • Expect a new battery life somewhat above 40 days. • Expect about 10 extra days of battery life. Case 16 Example

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