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Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling

Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling. By Marika Lohmus. Purpose. What is the relationship between population and global warming? More people → more greenhouse gases More greenhouse gases → higher temperatures

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Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling

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  1. Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling By Marika Lohmus

  2. Purpose • What is the relationship between population and global warming? • More people → more greenhouse gases • More greenhouse gases → higher temperatures • Higher temperatures → less people Population size Greenhouse gases Temperature Figure 1: Negative Feedback Loop

  3. Purpose Cont. • With a negative feedback loop, there should be an oscillating representation of the temperature and population size which should level off. • When, at what temperature and at what cost?

  4. 1st Quarter Work • NetLogo • Got elevation data from previous project • Started Temperature map • Took me most of 1st quarter Fig 2: Q1 Temperature Map Fig 3: Elevation Map

  5. 2nd Quarter • Concentration: • Temperature • System Dynamics • Agents • Patches • Turtles • People • Cities

  6. Temperature Map

  7. System Dynamics

  8. People Salary 1/10,000 Cities Median Salary Poverty percent Name Agents • Patches • Elevation • Temperature • Death-rate • Birth-rate • Turtles • Act as borders • Negative values

  9. Patches • Change color as elevation or temperature changes • Color determined by change in average global temperature Fig 5: Temperature Increase

  10. Another random number generated to determine whether the agent will move or not Looks better – otherwise people stay in one place People • Turtle-like agents • Human shape • Random number generated for each – birth rate and death rate per 10,000 people per year

  11. Total greenhouse gas emissions determined by population size # Factories increase as population increases Assumption • Total population of the united states = population of all the largest cities • Everyone lives in large cities • Everyone has an equal effect on greenhouse gas output

  12. 3rd Quarter Projections • People: • Will be able to move according to salary • What temperature is unreasonable? • Will birth-rates change? • Patches: • More reasonable elevation changes

  13. Current Results Fig 7: Temperature Data Fig 8: Population Data Equilibrium between temperature and population?

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