The Big Picture

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# The Big Picture - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Big Picture. PLSC 379r Lecture 6. Setting the Stage. Two actors, A and D Can’t agree on how to split some issue States don’t want to fight. Why? However, each actor is thinking strategically, and that can get them into trouble. Onset of Violent Conflict.

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## The Big Picture

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### The Big Picture

PLSC 379r

Lecture 6

Setting the Stage
• Two actors, A and D
• Can’t agree on how to split some issue
• States don’t want to fight. Why?
• However, each actor is thinking strategically, and that can get them into trouble
Onset of Violent Conflict
• A violent bargaining match should occur when one of two things happens
• One or both sides over-estimates their own strength or under-estimates the opponents
• One side believes a conflict is inevitable, and it has a “window of opportunity”
Guessing Types
• A wants something from D
• A has a belief about D’s type
• Strong
• Weak
• Resolved
• Unresolved
• A “knows” its own type
• If A is unresolved, will it likely make a threat? Will it under any conditions?
• A will balance 1)issue importance, 2) p(win), and 3) e(costs)
• A is most likey to make a demand (and be resolved) when it believes that its share of the benefits are not about equal with its power
Watching Signals
• D observes A make a first move and therefore has a clue about A’s type
• If A makes a demand, what does D “know”
• A uses everything it can to signal resolve
• Domestic institutions
• Democracies constrain
• Democracies inform
• D now “knows” that if it rejects A’s demand a costly conflict will occur
• D will choose war when it believes that its share of the benefits are not about equal with its power
• However, when D chooses war, what does that signal to A?
Choosing War
• If both sides believe their share of the benefits is not about equal to their share of the power, then someone is likely wrong
• The purpose of fighting is to reveal the “true” balance of power between A and D so the balance of benefits can be set to match
The Shape of War
• A is not unreasonable. The demand it made initially will be one that a weak type should accept
• If the course of the battle suggests that D is indeed a weak type, A will continue to fight
• A became less optimistic when D chose war
• Losses cause A to become less optimistic, while wins cause her to be more optimistic
• As fighting continues, A and D update their expectations about 1) p(win) and 2 e(costs), and adjust demands and concessions accordingly
A Bargain is Reached!
• War ceases when A and D can agree on a split of the benefits that BOTH prefer to continued fighting