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Outline

Outline. How does the Earth’s climate work? Energy balance and the Greenhouse Effect Climates past and future Common misconceptions in the popular media Arguing about the past “It’s not caused by humans” (see above) “It’s complicated” “Fixing it would be too expensive”

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Outline

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  1. Outline • How does the Earth’s climate work? • Energy balance and the Greenhouse Effect • Climates past and future • Common misconceptions in the popular media • Arguing about the past • “It’s not caused by humans” (see above) • “It’s complicated” • “Fixing it would be too expensive” • Historic opportunities • Imagine it’s 1800, and you’re in charge … • The magic of free markets

  2. Outline • How does the Earth’s climate work? • Energy balance and the Greenhouse Effect • Climates past and future • Common misconceptions in the popular media • Arguing about the past • “It’s not caused by humans” (see above) • “It’s complicated” • “Fixing it would be too expensive” • Historic opportunities • Imagine it’s 1800, and you’re in charge … • The magic of free markets

  3. Shortwave and Longwave Radiation The hot sun radiates at shorter wavelengths that carry more energy Energy absorbed by the cooler earth is then re-radiated at longer wavelengths

  4. Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays! • Nearly all of the air is made of oxygen (O2) and nitrogen (N2) in which two atoms of the same element share electrons • Infrared (heat) energy radiated up from the surface can be absorbed by these molecules, but not very well O O N N Diatomic molecules can vibrate back and forth like balls on a spring, but the ends are identical

  5. Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays! • Carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) are different! • They have many more ways to vibrate and rotate, so they are very good at absorbing and emitting infrared (heat) radiation O C O O H H Molecules that have many ways to wiggle are called “Greenhouse” molecules

  6. Tiny Bubbles … Priceless

  7. Paleo CO2 and the Ice Ages • Over the past 420,000 years atmospheric CO2 has varied between 180 and 280 parts per million, beating in time with the last four glacial cycles CO2 370 ppm in 2000 ice ice ice ice Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)

  8. Paleo CO2 and the Modern Age • Over the past 420,000 years atmospheric CO2 has varied between 180 and 280 parts per million, beating in time with the last four glacial cycles • Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 has risen very rapidly CO2 388 ppm in 2009 370 ppm in 2000 ice ice ice ice Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)

  9. Paleo CO2 and the Future • Over the past 420,000 years atmospheric CO2 has varied between 180 and 280 parts per million, beating in time with the last four glacial cycles • Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 has risen very rapidly • Atmospheric CO2 is projected to rise to between 700 and 900 ppm in this Century CO2 900 ppm in 2100 ice ice ice ice Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)

  10. Warming in 2090’s Low Emissions • Land vs ocean! • North vs South • Global mean warming of 2º to 5º C • North Americanwarming of 3º to 6º C • = 5º to 11º F • Arctic warming of 8º to 14º F Moderate Emissions High Emissions Water supply? Real estate? Agriculture? Ski industry? Mass immigration?

  11. Outline • How does the Earth’s climate work? • Energy balance and the Greenhouse Effect • Climates past and future • Common misconceptions in the popular media • Arguing about the past • “It’s not caused by humans” (see above) • “It’s complicated” • “Fixing it would be too expensive” • Historic opportunities • Imagine it’s 1800, and you’re in charge … • The magic of free markets

  12. Common Misconception #1 “Expectations of future warming are based on extrapolation of recent warming trends” • WRONG! They are based on the idea that when we add energy to the surface, it will warm up

  13. Common Misconception #2 “When we reduce or stop the burning of fossil fuel, the CO2 will go away and things will go back to normal” CO2 from fossil fuel will react with oceans, but only as fast as they “mix” Eventually, fossil CO2 will react with rocks About 1/3 of the fossil CO2 will stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years after emissions stop! Archer et al, Ann. Rev. Earth Plan. Sci. (2009)

  14. Historical Perspective Climate change, CO2, and energy will probably dominate human affairs for centuries, much as religious wars, feudalism, colonialism, and industrialization before

  15. Fossil Fuel Burning 8 ATMOSPHERE billion tons go in 4 billion tons added every year 800 billion tons carbon Ocean Land Biosphere (net) 4 2 2 + = billion tons go out CO2 “Budget” of the Atmosphere Rob Socolow and Steve Pacala http://www.princeton.edu/wedges/Climate Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

  16. ATMOSPHERE 1200 “Doubled” CO2 (570) 800 Today (380) Pre-Industrial 600 (285) 400 Glacial (190) Billions of tons of carbon ( ) billions of tons carbon ppm How Far Do We Choose to Go? Past, Present, and Potential Future Carbon Levels in the Atmosphere

  17. Outline • How does the Earth’s climate work? • Energy balance and the Greenhouse Effect • Climates past and future • Common misconceptions in the popular media • Arguing about the past • It’s not caused by humans (see above) • “It’s complicated” • Fixing it would be too expensive • Historic opportunities • Imagine it’s 1800, and you’re in charge … • The magic of free markets

  18. Historical Emissions Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 Historical emissions 8 0 1950 2000 2050 2100

  19. The “Stabilization Triangle” Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year Current path = “ramp” 16 Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100

  20. “Satbilization Wedges” Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16 GtC/y Current path = “ramp” 16 Eight “wedges” Goal: In 50 years, same global emissions as today Historical emissions 8 Flat path 1.6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 http://www.princeton.edu/wedges/

  21. Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge. What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr Total = 25 Gigatons carbon 50 years

  22. Nuclear Fission (1) Fifteen Wedges in 4 Categories Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4) 16 GtC/y Renewable Fuels & Electricity (4) Fuel Switching (1) Stabilization Stabilization Triangle Triangle CO2 Capture & Storage (3) 8 GtC/y Forest and Soil Storage (2) 2007 2057 http://www.princeton.edu/wedges/

  23. Imagine it’s 1800, and you’re in charge … • Somebody presents you with a grand idea for transforming the world economy: • Dig 8 billion tons of carbon out of the ground every year • Build a system of pipelines, supertankers, railroads, highways, and trucks to deliver it to every street corner on the planet • Build millions of cars every year, and millions of miles of roads to drive them on • Generate and pipe enough electricity to every house to power lights & stereos & plasma TVs … “and here’s the itemized bill …”

  24. Thinking about Co$t$ • Our global society built that very system • We didn’t all go broke building it … • We got rich beyond the avarice of kings! • Now we get to do it again! • How?

  25. Free Market Solutions • A new industrial revolution won’t happen because people want to “do the right thing” • The government can’t just pass a law and create a new global energy economy, any more than they could 200 years ago • If low-carbon-footprint goods and services cost less than “dirtier” ones, people will buy them • The role of policy is to provide incentives, to put a price on carbon!

  26. Conclusions • Rising levels of CO2 will cause significant climate change in the 21st century and far beyond • The only way to mitigate these changes is to stop burning coal, oil, and gas • This can feasibly be done using today’s technology, but requires tremendous will • Solving the climate problem will require a new industrial revolution, and huge wealth creation • Dealing with this problem will be a major theme of history for centuries to come

  27. “Scientists are necessary, but not sufficient to solve the climate problem” Dr. Ralph Cicerone, President of the National Academy of Science, November 2007

  28. Changes in Climate “Forcing”

  29. Temperature Trends • Much stronger trend on land than ocean • North > South • Surface > Atmosphere • Acceleration of trend

  30. 20th-Century Temperatures • Black lines show observations, yellow lines show each model, red line shows model mean surface temps • With all forcings, models capture much of historical record • Bottom panels: model=blue, obs=black • Without greenhouse forcing, models fail to match observations

  31. Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA Efficiency Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings E, T, H / $ Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$

  32. Fuel Switching Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey). A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today E, H / $

  33. Carbon Capture & Storage • Implement CCS at • 800 GW coal electric plants or • 1600 GW natural gas electric plants or • 180 coal synfuels plants or • 10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500. E, T, H / $$

  34. Nuclear Electricity Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055 Graphic courtesy of NRC The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990. E/ $$

  35. Wind Electricity Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel Photo courtesy of DOE A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30 E, T, H / $-$$

  36. Solar Electricity Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054 Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times E / $$$

  37. A Policy Spectrum “command and control” “market capitalism” direct subsidy “cap and trade” “tax and rebate”

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